Post: #1

This is a very flawed statistical analysis of how likely the average chick you meet is going to be DTF.

My statistics come from http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/fb_contr_use.html.

About 62% of sexually active women currently use birth control. Of those women about 33% use a hormonal form of birth control. That's assuming some portion of IUD users have the hormonal kind. That means at any given time 20% of women are not on a normal cycle. Of the remaining 80% there are about 4-5 days out of 28 were they will be absolutely DTF. That means that at any given moment 14% of the women you interact with are going to be DTF. So how many approaches do you need to make before you've interacted with a girl who's definitely good to go?

If you approach 5 women there's a ~50% chance one of them is DTF. If you approach 10 the number goes up to ~80%. At 20 women the number is 95% and at 30 women the number is 99%.

This ignores all sorts of factors. Some chicks get horny on their periods. Some chicks have boyfriends/husbands and don't cheat. Chicks who are DTF are more likely to go out to bars and clubs. You're more likely to notice and respond to women who are ovulating, etc. etc. Girls who take BC are still DTF sometimes. But I think it gives a nice idea about roughly how many women you need to approach before meeting one who's biologically into going home with you.

Post: #2

Your thesis gets a B- because you failed to cite certain relevant authority. See http://www.rooshv.com/sex-is-mathematics

Post: #3

Interesting. My analysis doesn't take into account Game. Game is going to determine if you have the charm and logistics to get the girl who's DTF to actually come home with you. Tight game might also help convince a girl who's not DTF that she should fuck you in order to keep you around until she is DTF. Good game will also help you screen better for DTF girls before you approach.

My criticism of the existing literature is that it assumes that the number of approaches you have to do is normally distributed. It probably actually follows more of a Poisson distribution because it's a counting statistic.

Post: #4

Ovulation equalling probable DTFness is a nice thing to keep in mind, but I don't know that its real-world implications can be so easily extrapolated. How many non-ovulating girls on BC are on the pill because they are generally horny and like to fuck? How many ovulating girls are fickle and would be turned off by some minor thing, even if a male model with legendary game approached them? It's interesting to think about the statistical angle, but I don't know that it has much of a real-world application in terms of actually altering one's actions to make it more likely to bang chicks.

Post: #5

There are some useful real world implications. In a world where women flake like a leper's spots and SNLs are the only way to go it makes sense to work on identifying which women are DTF and tuning your game appropriately. Think back over your last 30 approaches. There's a 99% chance that at least one of those women was ovulating. Do you have any guesses as to which one it was? If you don't then that's a thing to work on. Every 20-30 approaches take a moment to regroup and reflect and see if you can spot the few girls who stood out as likely DTF candidates. Once you get a sense for who's DTF you can start focusing on those interactions more. Figure out what worked and what did not. In those approaches are you mostly suffering from lack of attraction, poor rapport or bad logistics? This will help you target your game to work most effectively on women who are most likely to go home with you right away.

Post: #6

Women who work or live together ovulate together so there may be serious correlation.

Post: #7

(03-17-2013 10:31 AM)Menace Wrote:  Your thesis gets a B- because you failed to cite certain relevant authority. See http://www.rooshv.com/sex-is-mathematics

Oh wow I just saw that. Very cool.