Post: #1

The rumored release date for iPhone 6 is October 14th, 2014. Apple reportedly ordered 80 million to be built.

Is it worth buying a few G's of Apple stock and dumping after Christmas?

Post: #2

October 14th?! But I want it now!

Seriously, I thought it was in September.

Post: #3

They're going to announce it in September. Rumored release is October.

Post: #4

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ycharts/2012...in-charts/

Post: #5

(08-03-2014 12:47 PM)calihunter Wrote:  http://www.forbes.com/sites/ycharts/2012...in-charts/

That article is 2 years old. I wouldn't go by that.

Post: #6

I would.

If I had any money to invest I would have definitely invested in Microsoft and Sony a year or two before their new systems came out.

Post: #7

(08-03-2014 12:34 PM)Parlay44 Wrote:  The rumored release date for iPhone 6 is October 14th, 2014. Apple reportedly ordered 80 million to be built.

Is it worth buying a few G's of Apple stock and dumping after Christmas?

theoretically, the iphone 6 release & sales is already discounted into APPL's stock price. if you bought now you would be trading on a 'surprise' of more sales than expected.

Post: #8

I think the market is anticipating very good iPhone 6 sales and some of potential gains are already priced into the stock. That 80 million figure is for displays, not the iPhone's themselves. That number is a safeguard against production failure and lag.

That said, we have become so entrenched in equating our value as people with the possessions we own and brands we wear, that Apple is going to fucking kill it in Q4. Apple will be one of the few companies who will thrive in the next few quarters of mediocre economic reports.

Post: #9

(08-03-2014 02:30 PM)Katatonic Wrote:  I think the market is anticipating very good iPhone 6 sales and some of potential gains are already priced into the stock. That 80 million figure is for displays, not the iPhone's themselves. That number is a safeguard against production failure and lag.

That said, we have become so entrenched in equating our value as people with the possessions we own and brands we wear, that Apple is going to fucking kill it in Q4. Apple will be one of the few companies who will thrive in the next few quarters of mediocre economic reports.

Girls need to take their 100 megapixel selfies.

Post: #10

(08-03-2014 12:34 PM)Parlay44 Wrote:  The rumored release date for iPhone 6 is October 14th, 2014. Apple reportedly ordered 80 million to be built.

Is it worth buying a few G's of Apple stock and dumping after Christmas?

Apple stock has already risen 70% since June 2013. That was the time to buy it, not now.

Post: #11

The price of the stock already reflects expectations about the iPhone 6.

If you are confident that Apple will do better than expected, and that people will be pleasantly surprised, buy the stock.

If you are confident that the expectations will not be met, and that people will be disappointed, sell the stock short.

Post: #12

Apple better bring something more to the table than a bigger screen and the same old OS or they're toast. That's all I'm saying.

My iphone is beat to hell and I am eagerly anticipating the iphone 6. But somehow I feel they're gonna fall short and disappoint the masses. We shall see.

Post: #13

I think most people are going to be pleased with the new iPhones. The iPhone 5s did fairly well despite there not being any significant changes from the iPhone 5. A lot iPhone 5 users' contracts end this year too I think, so they're most likely going to be getting the iPhone 6.

Post: #14

Can't be so bad.

As a general rule stock prices increase for a company after the launch of a successful new product.

It would be worth doing simply as an experiment. Put whatever you are willing to risk into Apple now, and dump after January. I don't think you'll lose any money, but you could make a decent gain.

Same logic applies to Sony, Samsung, LG, HTC, insert-tech-company-with-new-product-launch here.

It could also go the other way too, you can buy put options on a stock you think are going to tank, if you know that a product is going to be bad in advance of its release.

Finally, and this is what really works but is more risky, is buying stock in companies after a disaster. I know a friend who bought tons of stock in American Airlines in the days post 9/11, knowing that they would stay in business but that their short term price would be low due to the events that day.. a bit Machiavellian but...that's capitalism

Post: #15

Let's see what happens. For the record Apple stock is at $96.13 today. Let's check back after it launches.

Post: #16

If this is the reason you are buying Apple, you might as well go to Vegas and bet your money on black.

Post: #17

(08-03-2014 09:57 PM)Richiavelli Wrote:  If this is the reason you are buying Apple, you might as well go to Vegas and bet your money on black.

What would be a good reason to buy a stock then? There are literally hundreds of professional drones working for the asset management and hedge fund industries whose only job is to "analyze" Apple stock and make recommendations to these funds' managers. All their calculations and mental masturbations are already factored into the stock price. As a retail investor, you will not be able to divine some sort of deep insight into Apple's future above and beyond what these crowds of professionals can figure out. Your only "edge" over them is that you can use gut calls and pursue higher beta plays than what is deemed wise by the pros with their layers of rules and risk controls.

Post: #18

(08-03-2014 10:27 PM)rekruler Wrote:  

(08-03-2014 09:57 PM)Richiavelli Wrote:  If this is the reason you are buying Apple, you might as well go to Vegas and bet your money on black.

What would be a good reason to buy a stock then? There are literally hundreds of professional drones working for the asset management and hedge fund industries whose only job is to "analyze" Apple stock and make recommendations to these funds' managers. All their calculations and mental masturbations are already factored into the stock price. As a retail investor, you will not be able to divine some sort of deep insight into Apple's future above and beyond what these crowds of professionals can figure out. Your only "edge" over them is that you can use gut calls and pursue higher beta plays than what is deemed wise by the pros with their layers of rules and risk controls.

With so little information ("iphone 6 is coming"), retail investors have no edge and their gut calls are gamble.

Post: #19

Apple stock prices and launch dates on one chart

Looks like there's always an increase UP TO the release date...

https://www.tradingview.com/v/GgKItz8r/

Post: #20

(08-04-2014 01:00 PM)Chemistry Wrote:  Apple stock prices and launch dates on one chart

Looks like there's always an increase UP TO the release date...

https://www.tradingview.com/v/GgKItz8r/

Why did it tank after the 3G?

Post: #21

What most people fail to understand is the lasting value of Apple is in its Applestore, not its iphone. The iphone is a network builder. This network allows Apple to take a 30% cut from all sales from apps, music and videos.

That being said, the spike in sales from the new iphone will def. help out. Resale values for iphones are still very high (which implies very high organic demand especially overseas).