Post: #76

About my view on the US dollar: you need to understand the role of a reserve currency in commodities.

Anytime you ship something, the two parties have to agree upon a currency for the transaction. This is the reason a while back Iran was hoping against hope that they could get the oil market on to the Euro and off the dollar.

The dollar, of course, has been the reserve currency of choice worldwide since the Second World War. That's the reason China has such an interest not only in pegging to the dollar, but also in physically owning dollars.

Folks who oppose the dollar's role as the reserve currency of choice have favored the Euro. Unfortunately, the Euro is on the verge of getting a ditch kicked in its head. Today's comments from the German government about Greece are not reassuring for the future of the Euro project. The Euro will survive in some form, but that's likely after several Eurozone countries default, drop the Euro and re-order their debt after returning to their various lira and drahkma and other Monopoly monies.

Bullish probably isn't the right term for how I feel about the dollar. I'm bullish on the world reverting to the dollar as the single global reserve currency.

As for the US government going into bankruptcy, forget about that ever happening. US debt as a percentage of GDP is manageable far into the future. The only threat to the dollar from the gov't itself is Republicans playing chicken with the spending cap. And, frankly, the outcome of the disaster relief bill indicates they've lost their taste for that game.

What will happen after 2013 is a Democratic Congress and President and the inevitable tax hike. So far, the Republicans have shown no intelligence with their campaign cash. They're wasting a lot of money betting on a group of losers in the primary. And whatever happens, no one in the GOP wants Romney. A lot of money is gonna go down the tubes between now and April to ensure that Mitt Romney doesn't become president. That's money that frankly would have been better spent on Congressional campaigns and holding the House to ensure Democrats can't raise taxes. Once the tax hike hits, the strong dollar policy of the Clinton era will roar back hard.

I see the end outcome being a full inversion of the Euro and the dollar. Where in the last few year it took a dollar-fifty to get a Euro, it will take a Euro-fifty to get a dollar. Oil in dollar terms will go down in the sixty dollar range.

As for the Euro, I think the Germans and the French don't understand that in a financial crisis, moralization is for the weak. The strong go all-in and solve the problem without regard for why it happened. That's why the Euro is for a serious beating.

I'd feel less bullish on the dollar if I had any faith the Germans and the French were going to stop moralizing and just defend their currency come hell or high water. Europe needs a "the buck stops here" moment. But, the dissolute leadership of Europe doesn't have the courage to go down hard in their elections and save the Euro.

The horrifying tragedy of this whole mess is that Merkel is electoral waste and so is Sarko. They're trading on nothing trying to calm their voters when their voters are already committed to sending them away. Frankly, both governments need to make peace with their coming electoral defeats and just do what needs to be done to save the Euro. That means bank recapitalizations everywhere and debt restructurings and write-downs in all the PIIGS countries to get those countries down to debt in the range of 60% of GDP. And that ain't gonna happen.

Post: #77

"What will happen after 2013 is a Democratic Congress and President"

You think so? Democratic Congress seems like a super long shot at best?

"I see the end outcome being a full inversion of the Euro and the dollar. Where in the last few year it took a dollar-fifty to get a Euro, it will take a Euro-fifty to get a dollar. "

I hope you are right.

I will post up in Spain heavy.

Post: #78

Quote:As for the US government going into bankruptcy, forget about that ever happening. US debt as a percentage of GDP is manageable far into the future. The only threat to the dollar from the gov't itself is Republicans playing chicken with the spending cap. And, frankly, the outcome of the disaster relief bill indicates they've lost their taste for that game.

Oh really? Increasing the debt to GDP/ratio by 10%+ a year is sustainable? Ha, ha, ha. That number will be closer to 15-20%+ a year once universal health care starts.

Post: #79

As the Zen master said, we'll see.

The obituary of the United States has been written far too many times for me to take anyone seriously who feels it needs to be written once more. Our Republic withstands all challenges. Even the ones we make for ourselves.

Post: #80

mycleverid -

All due respect, but the USA's run hasn't been that long.

Post: #81

(09-27-2011 12:37 AM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  All due respect, but the USA's run hasn't been that long.

It's the global power game. No respect is ever given just because someone feels it is due. Ask the Soviets.

American global domination is guaranteed so long as one fact persists: we control the Pacific Ocean.

Post: #82

To the board, and especially g-manifesto, since he's always sniffing for stock tips on these threads, here's one: norilsk nickel. symbol NILSY. Russian miner. they are in a unique position right now with some risk but a quick reward. share buyback program is 30.60 per share. priced right now at 21 per share. cool near 50% return. buy back program is voluntary and might not go, but anyone with under 1000 shares (yeah it limits the upside) will be bought back in full. you have to buy shares and then tell your broker you'd like to offer them for the cash tender. they'll set things up with the transfer agent. window closes oct 28th, so a potential 50% return in one week. there is risk, but this is really about one russian billionaire oligarch trying to buy another russian billionaire oligarch out of his piece of the company. i'm in and seeing if it's for real.

this is not advice, just a statement about a stock buy back program that looks pretty [email protected] good.

Post: #83

(10-20-2011 05:21 PM)MrM27 Wrote:  To the board, and especially g-manifesto, since he's always sniffing for stock tips on these threads, here's one: norilsk nickel. symbol NILSY. Russian miner. they are in a unique position right now with some risk but a quick reward. share buyback program is 30.60 per share. priced right now at 21 per share. cool near 50% return. buy back program is voluntary and might not go, but anyone with under 1000 shares (yeah it limits the upside) will be bought back in full. you have to buy shares and then tell your broker you'd like to offer them for the cash tender. they'll set things up with the transfer agent. window closes oct 28th, so a potential 50% return in one week. there is risk, but this is really about one russian billionaire oligarch trying to buy another russian billionaire oligarch out of his piece of the company. i'm in and seeing if it's for real.

this is not advice, just a statement about a stock buy back program that looks pretty [email protected] good.

Got any more info on this?

Links?

Post: #84

(10-20-2011 06:30 PM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  

(10-20-2011 05:21 PM)MrM27 Wrote:  To the board, and especially g-manifesto, since he's always sniffing for stock tips on these threads, here's one: norilsk nickel. symbol NILSY. Russian miner. they are in a unique position right now with some risk but a quick reward. share buyback program is 30.60 per share. priced right now at 21 per share. cool near 50% return. buy back program is voluntary and might not go, but anyone with under 1000 shares (yeah it limits the upside) will be bought back in full. you have to buy shares and then tell your broker you'd like to offer them for the cash tender. they'll set things up with the transfer agent. window closes oct 28th, so a potential 50% return in one week. there is risk, but this is really about one russian billionaire oligarch trying to buy another russian billionaire oligarch out of his piece of the company. i'm in and seeing if it's for real.

this is not advice, just a statement about a stock buy back program that looks pretty [email protected] good.

Got any more info on this?

Links?

Ok, I guess a google search was too hard to do. Quickest way I have seen of turning 20K into 30K in a LONG time. I thought I'd share this as it has risks but is a unique opportunity if it goes through. Good luck men, financial independence is the way to living the life.

http://www.nornik.ru/en/investor/buy2/

http://nnbuyback.com/home.html

Post: #85

You can't buy silver bars from Perth mint at the moment or most of the silver coins.

They put in new 1kg bar making equipment in July to double the capacity. Still can't keep up.

Post: #86

(10-20-2011 06:30 PM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  

(10-20-2011 05:21 PM)MrM27 Wrote:  To the board, and especially g-manifesto, since he's always sniffing for stock tips on these threads, here's one: norilsk nickel. symbol NILSY. Russian miner. they are in a unique position right now with some risk but a quick reward. share buyback program is 30.60 per share. priced right now at 21 per share. cool near 50% return. buy back program is voluntary and might not go, but anyone with under 1000 shares (yeah it limits the upside) will be bought back in full. you have to buy shares and then tell your broker you'd like to offer them for the cash tender. they'll set things up with the transfer agent. window closes oct 28th, so a potential 50% return in one week. there is risk, but this is really about one russian billionaire oligarch trying to buy another russian billionaire oligarch out of his piece of the company. i'm in and seeing if it's for real.

this is not advice, just a statement about a stock buy back program that looks pretty [email protected] good.

Got any more info on this?

Links?

Hey G did you end up doing this? I ask since I did and just got paid in my brokerage account. The Russian came through. Quickest and easiest 9K I have made in years investing.

Post: #87

“The cheapest gold ounces are now on the stock exchange not in the ground.”

http://www.mining.com/2011/11/04/majors-...-projects/

Post: #88

while i do daytrade gold/silver

there is just something really special about being about to stack my PM's.
imo, if u can't hold it then you don't really own it!

Post: #89

Gold Loses 4.3%; Silver Slides 6.9%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...lenews_wsj

Post: #90

I sold my physical stuff a while ago.

Selling my silver was an eye opener.

Get a look at people who buy the stuff.

If "shit hits the fan," I'll TAKE it all back.

Post: #91

I own both.

Post: #92

(02-29-2012 05:39 PM)MikeCF Wrote:  Selling my silver was an eye opener.

Get a look at people who buy the stuff.

What were they like?

Post: #93

(02-29-2012 06:02 PM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  

(02-29-2012 05:39 PM)MikeCF Wrote:  Selling my silver was an eye opener.

Get a look at people who buy the stuff.

What were they like?

Pasty white guys ranging in age from late-30's to late-50's.

Rubes.

The kind of people who get conned. They think they are winning at life, and have some angle...the best marks.

There are three types of people in the "survivalism" - and make no mistake, that's what the physical gold crowd is - market:

* Guys making profit (Tyler Durden and others playing the currency markets);
* Scared guys (need "real money" for when "the shit hits the fans");
* Transients.

I was into the scene for a while. Then I got close to it. I saw the people in it.

They are not winners at life.

They are not people you'd want watching your back in a fight.

Most are fat, middle-aged white guys who couldn't run up a flight of stairs - and couldn't sprint down the street with a "bug out bag."

They live in fantasyland. It's like a video game.

Post: #94

(02-29-2012 06:45 PM)MikeCF Wrote:  Most are fat, middle-aged white guys who couldn't run up a flight of stairs - and couldn't sprint down the street with a "bug out bag."

Great line. That had me laughing.

Post: #95

I own both physical gold and silver and buy more on every downtick in the prices. Here's one I bet you haven't heard of though because if everyone knew about it it would cause a run on the coins. I call it the poor man's way to accumulate metals. Did you know that a pre-1983 penny is worth 3 cents just in its metal content? Or, that all nickels are worth 7 cents just in their metal content? With all the money printing going on, these coins are just going to be that much more valuable with metals commodity prices anticipated to go much higher due to inflation. I save every coin of those types every time I get them in change and I buy 5 rolls of nickels everytime I go by the bank. It's like making money with money. I don't recommend that you go and buy large quantities of roll coins because that will cause suspicion, but go about it slow, and you can make a nice rate of return in a short time.

Post: #96

I own some PM mutual funds. I have already heard all the conspiracy theories about them not being backed by actual metal and bernie madoff raping my soul while I sleep, but I still choose them over physical metal.

I can not stand paying above the spot and selling below it. Just the most retarded way of "investing" possible. It has its place and I am sure I will own physical metal at some point in my life, but not while I am young.

However my friend made a fucking killing over the past 2-3 years buying silver back when it was like $18 and timing the top of it almost perfectly. It is what it is.

Post: #97

(03-01-2012 12:08 PM)SimonRierdon Wrote:  I own both physical gold and silver and buy more on every downtick in the prices. Here's one I bet you haven't heard of though because if everyone knew about it it would cause a run on the coins. I call it the poor man's way to accumulate metals. Did you know that a pre-1983 penny is worth 3 cents just in its metal content? Or, that all nickels are worth 7 cents just in their metal content? With all the money printing going on, these coins are just going to be that much more valuable with metals commodity prices anticipated to go much higher due to inflation. I save every coin of those types every time I get them in change and I buy 5 rolls of nickels everytime I go by the bank. It's like making money with money. I don't recommend that you go and buy large quantities of roll coins because that will cause suspicion, but go about it slow, and you can make a nice rate of return in a short time.

Yeah, I read that Kyle Bass bought like a million nickels (or more).

Post: #98

Used to.

I emptied everything into the market when gold hit 1900 for the second time in a double top formation last year. I was aiming for 2,000.....but the retracement pattern after first hitting 1912...makes me wary....on the way back...i used the nice round number of 1900 to empty all my cargo....it went to 1921 before reversing.

Post: #99

(03-01-2012 12:31 PM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  

(03-01-2012 12:08 PM)SimonRierdon Wrote:  I own both physical gold and silver and buy more on every downtick in the prices. Here's one I bet you haven't heard of though because if everyone knew about it it would cause a run on the coins. I call it the poor man's way to accumulate metals. Did you know that a pre-1983 penny is worth 3 cents just in its metal content? Or, that all nickels are worth 7 cents just in their metal content? With all the money printing going on, these coins are just going to be that much more valuable with metals commodity prices anticipated to go much higher due to inflation. I save every coin of those types every time I get them in change and I buy 5 rolls of nickels everytime I go by the bank. It's like making money with money. I don't recommend that you go and buy large quantities of roll coins because that will cause suspicion, but go about it slow, and you can make a nice rate of return in a short time.

Yeah, I read that Kyle Bass bought like a million nickels (or more).

yeah but how are you going to turn that nickel into 7 cents of metal? Melting them down is illegal, punishable somewhere along 5 years in prison and 10k in fines. That would really put a hamper on your profits. Not to mention the overhead of a smelting operation. You would need full rail car loads to start posting a profit, and thats about the time the feds bust you.

unless theres another way? Reality TV show about it, theres a show on moonshining so why not coin melting.

Post: #100

You don't have to melt coins to recover their monetary metal value. You can sell them to coin dealers or through eBay. You should try to sell as a roll (20) to make it worth your while. A roll of silver dimes is going for $130 and silver quarters for $250+. I have a older friend who's downsizing, wanted help in getting rid of some older furniture and a sizeable chest of old coins. He was about to take the coins to his local bank to deposit. He had no idea about the precious metals value of old coins. I sent him to coinflation.com and showed he easily had ~$30,000 worth of coins. Needless to see he was pretty psyched.