Post: #1

I'm surprised there was no thread on this considering how much this has been discussed here

http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/category/hungary/


In Ypres, France, the prime ministers of European Union countries gathered to discuss politics.


Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, said in a meeting that during his time in office “The goal is to cease immigration whatsoever,”


“I think the current liberal immigration policy, which is considered obvious and morally based, is hypocritical…”


He said he wanted to EU leaders to acknowledge that immigration is wrong, and Europe’s aim should be to cease immigration.


“There were two types of reactions: some envied me because they mustn’t say things like that although they’d very much like to. The others disagreed because they’ve failed to turn around demographic trends with family politics; have kept social tension at bay by subsidizing the jobless; and aren’t fazed if the ethnic basis of a nation state is broken,”


PM Orban said it was extremely important for Hungary to remain European, ethnically and culturally, with Christianity as its cornerstone.


He suggested that instead of financing the current immigration policy, EU countries should use that money to make the immigrants’ home countries better to live, and additionally, to focus on increasing the birth rate in Europe.


The Hungarian government has been increasing the country’s birth rate by offering tax exemption to those who have three kids or more, and also introducing legislation so that mothers can stay home for three years after giving birth.


The Hungarian government also plans to boost birth-rates with a congratulatory card for newly wedded couples.


“If your love for one another becomes the source of a new life, that’s the greatest gift to your family. A child is a blessing, and the pledge of survival of the family and our nation.” the congratulatory cards say.


Back in May 2014, PM Orban shed light on to why he is trying to increase the birth-rate of Europeans.


“History has proven that civilizations that are not capable of biologically preserving themselves are destined to disappear, Our civilization, Europe is not capable of this today.”

Post: #2

It is ludicrous to think 3rd world countries can keep multiplying and shipping peope to 1st world countries to "raise" them.

The world is small now. Until we go to space people need to tend to their own garden so to speak.

Being outnumbered over time by societies with tenants that extend poverty is not good. Neither is brain drain.

Literally because immigrants push down wages I am disincentivized to have children because of the cost, add in real estate prices and it only makes things worse.

Post: #3

1st rate countries being leached by 3rd world ones.

I understand bettering ones self however, you can't keep bringing people over who aren't contributing to the society one lives in.

Giving these immigrants welfare and having them shit on you isn't productive.

Post: #4

He's right. What's more, everybody knows he's right. Some just don't want to admit it yet.

Mass immigration isn't a solution to below-replacement-level birthrates, it's taking one problem and adding a much worse one. It's like finding a crack in the wall of your house, and trying to fix it with fire.

We can't import people from primitive cultures and expect them to be "us".

I'm not sure how much governments can do to increase birthrates, but not rushing to replace us with people like the Rochdale kiddy fiddlers or the London ISIS volunteers would be a good start. Lowering taxes and the cost of living would be a good next step. Extirpating the cult of feminism from our schools, our civil service, and our courts would make it a hat trick.

Post: #5

Europe might not even need higher birthrates or immigrants.

Unemployment, especially of youth, is so high that Europe might benefit from a population decline. The reality is that robotics and software are making human labor obsolete, with a corresponding decline in the need for workers. Europe's challenge in the future won't be dealing with labor shortages. The challenge with come from dealing with the excess of workers in their nations.

Therefore there's no need for more immigration. Europe is already vastly overpopulated and overcrowded. The Hungarian Union Prime Minister is correct that immigration should be ceased. That's a no brainer.

The more difficult part is figuring out what to do with so many obsolete workers. One thing we can agree on is that bringing in immigrants to compete against obsolete workers is just lunatic. It's even more lunatic to bring in immigrants who go on welfare. It's even worse to bring in immigrants who molest 12 year old girls in Rotherham.

I give the Hungarian PM credit for understanding the issue and wanting to stop immigration.

Post: #6

Good luck with that. People are just realising there are ISIS supporters in the UK, let alone wondering about the home grown birth rates.

Most poor families give birth to 3-4 useless bastards. Most Muslim families have similar numbers.

Well-off people who want to better themselves have 1-2 children at most.

Post: #7

I will bite the bullet and offer my services to boost Hungarian women's birthrates

...assuming the Hungarian govt. supports the offspring.

Post: #8

Bang Hungary = Roosh's next book?

Wald

Post: #9

Prime ministers and presidents in each country have been making those statements. Sounds good, but does not mean shit.

The borders will remain open and the unemployment is so high, that even if all immigration stopped and people would be having 0,5 children per woman (well below replacement rate of 2.1), there would not be enough employment opportunities for the people for decades to come.

The Polish prime minister did the same stunt - Poland having practically no immigration and a real unemployment rate of over 15%. Yes - indeed - more children will miraculously produce the jobs. Unless you put everyone on the dole (a sufficiently high one), there is no way in hell that this will work.

   

Post: #10

What would work?

There are a few things that don't work:

1) High housing prices for all the good areas in cities where young people like to live. Governments limit plans of building new housing areas through all sorts of regulation & to actually give poor/unemployed/old people subsidies to live in urban apartments. From a humane perspective the latter might be understandable, but why should you house the economically non-productive in the city or the good areas? You can house them anywhere, leave the good spaces for the yups, the entrepreneurs, the college-educated and especially the young parents.

2) The incessant focus on high education for all young people, even on degrees that don't help anyone. This all stems from the idea that innovation will help compete in the world economy, to withstand against Asia's rise (which makes sense). However, a piece of paper won't help you get there, because a paper itself won't you more innovative and/or smarter. So, subsidize STEM degrees and/or other studies with a proven pay-off to society; don't subsidize studies which do not. Young people respond to incentives, so don't make it easy for them to wreck their lives choosing useless studies. For most other people, they need to start working earlier, so they can start life earlier. Entrepreneurs don't need much education anyhow, what they do need is youthful energy: an MBA won't give you that.

3) A gov policy of temporary contracts (lobbyed for by companies) in combination with rigid labor laws (lobbyed for by labor unions) is a sure way to make sure young people can not settle early and thus job-hop & focus on short term gratification. In the series Girls, while not Europe-related, you can see what such a living entails: young overeducated people, esp women, working dead-end jobs, living aimlessly from one high to the next, while doing nothing interesting, productive or useful (even for themselves).

4) There's a political-cultural policy of browbeating Christianity, manhood & ethnic pride. There's no conspiracy here, and there are historical good reasons for doing so (mainly WWI, WWII, colonialism, et al), but it's clear that this doesn't help your birth rate. In fact, if you have a very high dose of this, you can't even talk about stuff like birth rates, yeah I'd say most of Western Europe (minus the Latins) is in that spot right now.

5) I've been to SE Asia several times, what amazes me of (same-same, but different) Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore etc. is the great optimism you feel there. It literally feels like you're part of something happening. The constant rise of new buildings, the improvements in daily life make people feel like they'll be better off tomorrow; you want to be part of this awakening, this new era of prosperity; to take risks. Europe doesn't have that. In fact, there's the opposite feeling: people feel it'll get worse and you shouldn't take so much risks.

OTOH, even if you fix all that, there's a big chance that birth rates will remain (too) low for decades. Low birth rates are a feature all over the world, they appear all over Asia (with very different cultures and even show up in the Middle East now. The only exceptions (worldwide) to permanent low birth rates seem to be France, Russia and Israel, whom all have seem to have bounced back from lower rates.

Post: #11

(08-28-2014 09:05 PM)Maciano Wrote:  What would work?

There are a few things that don't work:

1) High housing prices for all the good areas in cities where young people like to live. Governments limit plans of building new housing areas through all sorts of regulation & to actually give poor/unemployed/old people subsidies to live in urban apartments. From a humane perspective the latter might be understandable, but why should you house the economically non-productive in the city or the good areas? You can house them anywhere, leave the good spaces for the yups, the entrepreneurs, the college-educated and especially the young parents.

I agree, this is definitely part of it. It's particularly so in northern mainlaind Europe where public housing in excellent location is used for single welfare moms and immigrants. Another factor is zoning regulation. People in the cities don't want their views spoiled by 40 story high rises. You could solve housing issues quickly by going the Asian way and building high rises.

2) The incessant focus on high education for all young people, even on degrees that don't help anyone. This all stems from the idea that innovation will help compete in the world economy, to withstand against Asia's rise (which makes sense). However, a piece of paper won't help you get there, because a paper itself won't you more innovative and/or smarter. So, subsidize STEM degrees and/or other studies with a proven pay-off to society; don't subsidize studies which do not. Young people respond to incentives, so don't make it easy for them to wreck their lives choosing useless studies. For most other people, they need to start working earlier, so they can start life earlier. Entrepreneurs don't need much education anyhow, what they do need is youthful energy: an MBA won't give you that.

Yep and this also removes housing because more single women, due to reasons well understood here. Also older mothers who in the past would have had 2-3 kids before 30 and men who stay studying and bro'ing it up on student grants and loans into their 30s with no money for starting a family.

3) A gov policy of temporary contracts (lobbyed for by companies) in combination with rigid labor laws (lobbyed for by labor unions) is a sure way to make sure young people can not settle early and thus job-hop & focus on short term gratification. In the series Girls, while not Europe-related, you can see what such a living entails: young overeducated people, esp women, working dead-end jobs, living aimlessly from one high to the next, while doing nothing interesting, productive or useful (even for themselves).

Absolutely. Labor unions keep unproductive older employees at too high salaries because they got in at a time when demand was high.

4) There's a political-cultural policy of browbeating Christianity, manhood & ethnic pride. There's no conspiracy here, and there are historical good reasons for doing so (mainly WWI, WWII, colonialism, et al), but it's clear that this doesn't help your birth rate. In fact, if you have a very high dose of this, you can't even talk about stuff like birth rates, yeah I'd say most of Western Europe (minus the Latins) is in that spot right now.

5) I've been to SE Asia several times, what amazes me of (same-same, but different) Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore etc. is the great optimism you feel there. It literally feels like you're part of something happening. The constant rise of new buildings, the improvements in daily life make people feel like they'll be better off tomorrow; you want to be part of this awakening, this new era of prosperity; to take risks. Europe doesn't have that. In fact, there's the opposite feeling: people feel it'll get worse and you shouldn't take so much risks.

For sure, there is optimism in Asia and if you're only used to declining Europe, it seems like a completely different world. Everyone in Asia seems to have a smile, a certain feeling that things are only going up. On the other hand, people in Europe bitch, moan and sulk about just trying to keep their privileges - without being willing to work for them.

OTOH, even if you fix all that, there's a big chance that birth rates will remain (too) low for decades. Low birth rates are a feature all over the world, they appear all over Asia (with very different cultures and even show up in the Middle East now. The only exceptions (worldwide) to permanent low birth rates seem to be France, Russia and Israel, whom all have seem to have bounced back from lower rates.

Europe needs a reset. It could have happened already with Greece, Portugal, Ireland etc. Should have let them fail and let Spain fail, Italy fail. Remove the bandaid in one quick swoop and tell people honestly: We fucked up, we lived on money we didn't have, we were arrogant and decadent, now lets get to work again and most importantly, the older generation,the boomers should have had the dignity to step aside and leave the world for the new generation - but they didn't. Instead, they're adamant about selling out their children's futures for a few more bottles of red wine and a few more senior trips to Tuscany. The great generational robbery.

Post: #12

I completely agree with him. However, it's never going to happen. Raising European birthrates would require acknowledging "uncomfortable" truths about gender and rolling back many of the feminist-driven changes that occurred during the last 40 years. It's impossible. Only if a massive war or natural disaster forces it, but I'm not holding my breath.

Post: #13

Not buying that this is the end for European civilization.

Would be hilarious if it was though.

First case of a population terminating itself willfully?

Post: #14

No-one mentions the one thing that would boost the birth rate significantly:

Low taxes.... when 50% of my salary is taken by the government, I think twice before having a child. I barely have money to take care of myself.

Post: #15

(08-28-2014 09:05 PM)Maciano Wrote:  What would work?
...

5) I've been to SE Asia several times, what amazes me of (same-same, but different) Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore etc. is the great optimism you feel there. It literally feels like you're part of something happening. The constant rise of new buildings, the improvements in daily life make people feel like they'll be better off tomorrow; you want to be part of this awakening, this new era of prosperity; to take risks. Europe doesn't have that. In fact, there's the opposite feeling: people feel it'll get worse and you shouldn't take so much risks.
..

The reason why Asia around China and all connected regions are booming right now is because the entire Western hemisphere has been transferring their manufacturing capability to China. Chinese people have not pulled themselves up by their bootstraps - they were trained, financed and promoted to do so. The money power simply moved everything from the US to China.

China is to keep on as the new battering ram and leader for the next century. The transition is as strong as the one from UK to US in the last century.

The people are positive, because they see the money pouring in and being spent there. If you look at the ownership structure you see the same parties as in the West being majority owners. But who cares, since plenty of dough is left for the populations there?

Post: #16

Part of the reason is the script has changed.

While men will phuck anything, to sacrifice our lives and energy we want a woman to raise our child who is either a virgin or close to it. It is no surprise that cultures that encourage female virginity such as Mormons, Muslims and Hasidic Jews have very high birthrates.

No white European country has such a culture anymore and hence our birth rates will continue to decline.

Many Europeans have also grown lazy. We want foreigners to do our dirty and nasty jobs, welfare for if we don't feel like working and we even expect other cultures to do the hard work of having children and making sacrifices to raise a big family so we can party and have our healthcare and pensions paid for.

The people willing to make the sacrifices to have families are the ones that will call the shots in the future.

Post: #17

Yep, I don't mind impregnating those hungarian women seeing as it looks as though he'll support them

Post: #18

Nothing is impossible, and birth rates will rise again, but how and why is just not known. It's actually a very big problem that's not getting the attention it deserves. Birth rates have been too low since the 70s. France has had to deal with low birth rates since the late 19th century, it seems to be a cultural problem caused by increased material wealth and individual freedoms (of which feminist empowerment is also one).

There are three things that correlate with contemporary high birth rates;
1) religiosity
2) lack of (higher) female education
3) war &or demographic womb battles

As you can see all three factors tend to increase the babies being born in the lower classes. That's not what the developed world needs, at all. The developed world -- not just Europe -- needs higher educated people to have more children. The amount of children being born in places like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore (thus successful places in Asia) is abysmal, even more abysmal than Europe. There's no need to have large amounts of children born for the good of a country, otherwise Africa, India, Afghanistan would be doing much, much better.

I'm optimistic some developed country will solve the low birth conundrum. Likely, this country will be in the East, because they're much less PC there; otherwise some developed NW-European country will solve the problem by accident. For now, low birth rates will be part of the Zeitgeist.

Post: #19

If only all countries took this view.

Wald

Post: #20

I want to say that while he is 100% right, it's also negative that out of all people in Europe, it was him who said it. For those who don't know, he is absolutely hated in Scandinavia and England, where the main core of illiterate importers are, especially Sweden. Not long ago he said he would love to see liberalism completely gone from Hungary and Europe, which blew up on the PC countries.

If anything, even when true, his opinion can only push sweden and denmark into getting 2 times more idiots from wherever, just out of spite.

Post: #21

Hungary continues to impress me, it seems to be one of the few truly independent-thinking nations in the EU. The Hungarian people, and more amazingly, their government realize that there is more to life than the GDP and that the continued life of there people is more important than short-term material gain.

Post: #22

(08-29-2014 09:12 AM)Brian Boru Wrote:  Hungary continues to impress me, it seems to be one of the few truly independent-thinking nations in the EU. The Hungarian people, and more amazingly, their government realize that there is more to life than the GDP and that the continued life of there people is more important than short-term material gain.

It seems like that. There is only so much you can do within the confines of the EU. Viktor Orban though could be one of the few guys left, who actually tried to change things. When he tried to restrict the "freedoms" of the Hungarian Central Bank, the EU uttered threats of massive sanctions.

Taking control of the State Central Bank and issuing money interest-free would be one of the ways a country would reach independence similar to what President Andrew Jackson did in the early 1830s in the US. But that was then and he almost got successfully assassinated for his achievement of getting the country debt-free.

Orban or his family would not survive such a move. The individual countries have less and less to decide anyway - they are relegated to mere regional counties. Apart from some rhetoric and a few minor steps no politician within the EU can truly change much - similar to a Governor in the US.

The only country that sort of managed to show the banking powers the finger were the Icelandic people. But they brought out the torches and marched towards the parliament. That kind of strategy would work in all countries. If 100 Million Americans had marched to the streets, then there would have been private household bailouts instead of trillions of $ in banking bailouts.

Post: #23

(08-29-2014 09:12 AM)Brian Boru Wrote:  Hungary continues to impress me, it seems to be one of the few truly independent-thinking nations in the EU. The Hungarian people, and more amazingly, their government realize that there is more to life than the GDP and that the continued life of there people is more important than short-term material gain.

What I like about Orban's goverment that they dont give a flying fuck about the political-correct agenda of the EU. I voted for them two times already, but there are no alternatives other than them.

There is a funny youtube video where a journalist ask one of the Orban's team member how it is that there are no women in the goverment. The answer (with a cocky smile): "It is just happened to be this way..."

Post: #24

(08-29-2014 01:40 AM)Glaucon Wrote:  No-one mentions the one thing that would boost the birth rate significantly:

Low taxes.... when 50% of my salary is taken by the government, I think twice before having a child. I barely have money to take care of myself.

I'm not sure that high taxes are necessarily an issue. They might be in certain countries. However, East Asia has very low birthrates (lowest in the world), yet several East Asian nations have very low tax rates (the average person in Taiwan pays ~5%, for instance, and the government also keeps prices of utilities, petroleum and other things artificially low).

I think that in both Asia and Europe the real problem is that people have bought into consumerism too much and too many people have essentially decided that having children gets in the way of having a good time. They're living like permanent adolescents. Planning to have children, and then actually having them, often has the effect of forcing people to be more ambitious and enterprising, pursuing a better job, etc. The people I know or have known here in Taiwan who don't have kids have often been content to fool about in a largely dead end job, even if it's not a terrible job, because it's enough to pay for their vacations abroad, the latest fashions, and all the electronic gadgets they think they can't live without. These are not people with absolutely no prospects. They're well educated enough. It's just all about their attitudes.

My observations are that whilst a fair number of people might only have one kid, those people throw tons of resources at that kid, so it's not a financial thing. Most people who do have kids do tend to have two. They manage somehow. The real problem, I think, is those people who don't have any kids, and as I wrote above, those people tend to be unwilling to take responsibility for themselves in general, not just by having kids.