Post: #1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arhBShGlZ...re=related

Fantastic documentary series by Professor Niall Ferguson. Great for people interested in the rise of the European powers, their current decline, and the rise of Asia.

Post: #2

This "declining West, rising Asia" is way overblown. Do you know what it really is? It's a tool by the Western elites to keep the Western mass in check and in control, while tapping the vast labor reservoir in East Asia. In other words, it's a very clever form of (economic) imperialism on East Asia brilliantly utilizing the human nature across different civilizations.

Transfer of power from America to China isn't just a intra-civilization power shift. It'd be an inter-civilization power shift, and there're just too many factors to be done readily, if it is doable at all.

By Asia, you precisely mean China, and China, and the East-Asian civilization as a whole, must pull off an improbable task to replace the West as the world's leading civilization. Japan can't do it, neither Korea, nor Taiwan, nor Singapore, nor Hong Kong. In fact, if you omit Japan and China from "Asia", it becomes laughable, as all the other nations are mere satellite states that could and would belong anywhere, leaning to whoever is currently in charge. Japan is America's faithful beta. Only China remains a probable contender as it is rising against the West since the whipping of the two Opium Wars in the 19th century.

Study the East-Asian history and value system. You'll be hard-pressed to believe that China can avoid being another Japan--an East-Asian nation adopted the Western ways that plateaued after catching up because they didn't have their own blood temperament to pioneer and wage wars for causes.

Instead of focusing on "Asia", focus on China. It's a vast civilization state, and it'll be some interesting x-factor in the global stage as the years roll on. Get ready to exploit it: The Chinese mass has been exploited by both the internal and external forces for millennia, and those who know how have much to gain from fucking China. Many have known tender Asian pussy is a very sweet and delectable thing to rape and ravage on. The Chinese elites have known this for ages, and so did the outside elites. It's hard stopping history from repeating itself.

"I may betray the world, but I won't let the world betray me."** -- Cao Cao, the antigonist in Romance of the Three Kingdoms, one of the Four Great Classical Chinese Novels, perhaps the most prominent and quintessential.
**(translation: I may fuck the Chinese mass in the ass, pussy, and mouth, but I won't let the Chinese mass fuck me in my ass.)

Chances are, China will start to make good, if not great contributions to the advancement of the human civilizations in its own ways. At times it's been at the top, and there's no reason why it can't be again. That doesn't mean the West will just 'tank', however. In fact, the human competition mechanism being what it is, rise of China will force the West (reads America) to rise to the occasion to counter the competition, lest it wither and die.

Let the competition roll on.

"In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy's country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good."
Sun Tzu

Oh my, there's some serious heat coming from China...

Post: #3

Quote:**(translation: I may fuck the Chinese mass in the ass, pussy, and mouth, but I won't let the Chinese mass fuck me in my ass.)

Post: #4

That guy Niall Ferguson also does a very interesting series also on youtube called 'The Ascent of Money.' And the actual book is a great read too, fascinating and insightful.

I am personally very interested in history, so I watched this series while it aired here in the UK and enjoyed it. So if you're interested in the roots of Western civilization and why it thrives then this is the programme for you.

Post: #5

I don't really trust this guy, since he was a total neocon that supported the Iraq war and suggested that America embrace being an empire, something that would seem to go against the idea of a West that could sustain itself and have the credibility to spread its culture.

Look, the US has competition now. After WWII, there wasn't any. Europe and Japan were destroyed, China and Russia were Communist (along with Eastern Europe), India was barely independent, and the 3rd world was really the 3rd world. It was a window of opportunity for the US and we seized it, but it was never gonna last forever.

China is going to have a lot to figure out in the near future as its economic power eclipses the US. They have an incredible shortage of females compared to males. Tibet and Taiwan, among other places, do not want to be part of China and will periodically rebel. Their language is difficult to learn. Their government practices a kind of authoritarianism that gringo law enforcement officials can still only dream about. Sure, they are growing by leaps and bounds now, but what if that bubble deflates? Where are all the creative and scientific breakthroughs that this supposed country of the future should be producing?

The USA and Europe have their problems, but I wouldn't bet on any one superpower dominating the way the US did a generation ago, not even the US, and not China either. Ferguson wants to blame the West's decline on "socialist welfare states" even as China's rise is fueled by massive government spending and protectionism.

Still, if I have some time this weekend maybe I'll give this doc a spin.

Post: #6

1950s: "Oh, no! The Soviets are taking over the world."

1991: The Soviet Union falls.

1980s: "Oh, no! The Japanese are taking over the world."

1989: The Nikkei Stock Market crashes and ushers in the worst economic climate that has been going on for the past two decades in which Japan still hasn't recovered.

2000s: "Oh, no! The Chinese are taking over the world."

Wanna bet that the bubble won't burst? It will. Who knows. Maybe the Chinese will end up like the Dutch, having potential and some power only to see it slip away. The Dutch were just a blip on the radar compared to the other European powerhouses.

Post: #7

I once wrote a large paper on the Bretton Woods System and from my research I've concluded that the U.S was at the height of its potential power following WWII, but wasted it by being head creditor to the IMF and creating an unsustainable gold-dollar system. U.S had 90% of the world's gold reserves, a military strength that dwarfed the rest of the world's, and a high standard of living (excluding a obligatory post-war recession).

In comparison, countries like China and Greece underwent Civil Wars, Western European Nations had their governments in exile or flat out controlled by the USSR, and most of the other belligerents in the war suffered from massive war debt brought about by unpaid loans, infrastructure eradication, and inflation. The U.S was in a position of power, but chose to use that power and indebt itself to repair the rest of the world for stability's sake, including programs during the Cold War.

A U.S refusal to help rebuild Western Europe after the war might have not been a good idea though, since that might have put a target on our backs for the rest of the world, meaning no help from a pissed-off Western Europe against against pissed-off communist nations.

This habit of the U.S giving funding abroad while cutting down it's own production and industry continued for decades (though less and less to fight communism), and thus weakened the U.S to strengthen the rest of the world and give rise to their industries.

So really the idea of a western collapse isn't some new theory, its been an ongoing process that people tend to predict will happen during a certain bracket of time, whether it be during the 60's, 80's, or now. It's just been a question of how long the U.S could withstand it's course.

Post: #8

There's a cultural element to this discussion that often gets overlooked. While in decline by nearly any measure, the United States has a long way to go to reach rock bottom. Don't forget that American culture suffuses world notions of culture to the extent that Broken English (American English) is the unofficial language of the world; every idiotic American program (e.g., American Idol) gets re-made in dozens of different languages; and American brands (in English) will be splattered all over the world long after humanity decays under a pile of its own trash. You might say: "big deal, who cares if you can get Coca-Cola everywhere, it's a multi-national corporation nowadays anyway--as much American as Bangladeshi."

But American cultural hegemony is a formidable foe. Bear in mind that one piece of legislation could set off a chain of events that would kill this China ascent in its crib (granted, I don't think it will happen): public financing of elections. Take shit loads of private money out of American elections--and, by consequence, politicians beholden to corporations--and one of the first things you'll see the next president do is bring American manufacturing back to the states, imposing heavy tariffs on imported shit. All of sudden, we're back in the game. America is like an annoying, drunk, fat bitch at the club that--when you stop and think about it--realize would be hot if she lost 40 lbs and got her shit together. She may not be that smart or cool, but she's young and hot under all that lard. You know every sausage in the club would be throwing paper and mad game at her if she'd just shed the weight and get back to how she used to look.

At the end of the day, China's name has become synonymous with low-quality, cheap-shit knock-offs. How often do you hear, "this is high-quality stuff, not some cheap Chinese stuff"? That a huge cultural burden China has unintentionally created for itself. Its "brand" is worthless. (In fact, that's why they started printing "Made in PRC"--the Peoples Republic of China--instead of "Made in China" on products.) In the end, I'm not convinced you can dominate the world that way--at least not for any significant period.

Don't get me wrong, I think American culture is also at the heart of the very decline we're discussing. It's precisely the consumerist, unregulated-capitalist, culture of excess that's led to the erosion of American might. You can draw a straight line from it to the obesity epidemic, the dumb-ass electorate, and the iPhone-addicted bitches we all complain about.

Post: #9

America's biggest problem right now is internal. China will be a competitor for resources but they have their own problems brewing.
One of the bloggers from The Sovereign Man has been boots on the ground in China and documenting all the empty buildings and train stations, etc. Just as in America, China is burdening future generations to create the illusion of prosperity now.
http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/china-zombie-movie

Post: #10

YMG recommended this doc a while back:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_n4pTMJLnE
/thread-4274.h...hlight=bbc

It was a BBC doc about British expats trying to make it rich in China. Fascinating people, and it seemed like they were all on their way to succeeding, at least where the film ended. But China looked terrible! Totally smoggy, whole cities full of the same industry manufacturing one thing, for example toilets or pillows. It looked even more dystopian and bland than the United States suburbs, which is no easy feat. It certainly didn't motivate me to go there, but then I'm not the most entrepreneurial guy, which I think helps motivate someone to risk it all over there. That and yellow fever.

Post: #11

Haha yeah Ajiaco, they were going through some of the shitty manufacturing cities so that was understandable.

I personally love Shanghai a second home and can't imagine not being there because of all the friends I have there now.

However, China is an acquired taste for sure. Many people hate living there for reasons I can certainly understand. Why do you think I'm in Bangkok to build my business?

Post: #12

I think the West is dying, but China will not be the ones to replace the West.

Much more likely is a scenario where we regress to a dark-ages type of time, where progress is zilch and people suffer on a wide scale.


Evidence of China's bubble:

Ghost train stations

Ghost MALLS!

AND GHOST FUCKING CITIES!!

Post: #13

(07-08-2011 06:21 PM)Samseau Wrote:  Much more likely is a scenario where we regress to a dark-ages type of time, where progress is zilch and people suffer on a wide scale.

My outlook is far more optimistic.

Post: #14

I'm doing my master's in econ, I work in finance and my parents are historians and socialogists, our dinner-table discussions have been pretty insightful - so I'll go ahead and share my thoughts:

The West's decline is real. Low private and public saving, very high consumption funded by asset bubbles bought about by protectionist zoning laws, government tinkering with real estate, and Chinese debt funding. Real wage growth in the US has FALLEN the past decade for median income households. Housing prices have soared, productivity growth has not kept pace and it's productivity growth that is the real measure of economic growth.

The past decade and a half people have made more money by taking it from others. Still... the highest income earners in the US, the top 1%, account for 95% of all income tax receipts. Think about it.

Demographics. The most productive ethnic groups in the United States are on the decline, meaning fewer people to support more. This could be an inherent problem with prosperity - the same thing happened to the Roman Empire. Basically, American chicks need to figure out how to have their kids 5-10 years earlier, and to have more of them. Maybe laying off the ice-cream and feminism would help.

China is screwed too. Their demographics are fucked. way too many dudes. That's going to a be lot of frustrated men. I predict middle class revolutions. Plus, so they've sold us a lot of useless crap. The crap is no longer cheap crap. They have learned to make quality products, and they produce millions of newly graduated engineers and scientists every year. This quality vs. quantity thing is not going to hold. The Chinese are producing quality in quantity. They will make our stuff better than we do soon enough. But so what? They have 3 trillion dollars in FX reserves they can't use. If you have a large deficit that does not balance itself out, what you're really doing is selling your goods cheaper than they're worth. China has sold us a lot of shit cheaper than they should have. We can't use it, because most of it is just consumer items that we throw away. They can't use the money because if they do, their currency will collapse. They've shot themselves in the foot.

Even militarily China is still very behind. Although the whole situation seems quite similar to pre-WWI power balances. All China has to do is build a big navy, and then things will get interesting - it'd be a good way to challenge the frustrations of 30 million super horny single men aged 20-25 who have no hope of finding a wife.

Africa and the Middle East No importa. Only insofar as they have a lot of poor people and make a lot of babies, inept, corrupt governments, clan societies, and a lot of resources. The Chinese will brush them aside when they decide they want secure deliveries of raw materials. Like in Zambia, where there already today live 20,000 Chinese. The Middle East and Africa will become Chinese colonies.

Post: #15

Quote:Africa and the Middle East No importa. Only insofar as they have a lot of poor people and make a lot of babies, inept, corrupt governments, clan societies, and a lot of resources. The Chinese will brush them aside when they decide they want secure deliveries of raw materials. Like in Zambia, where there already today live 20,000 Chinese. The Middle East and Africa will become Chinese colonies.

The Chinese aren't retarded enough to believe in the evils of "colonialism". The greatest advantage of China is its ruthlessness. Machiavelli would be proud.

If the West was more like the Chinese, America/Europe would be MUCH more powerful than it is today.

Post: #16

(07-17-2011 09:19 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

Quote:Africa and the Middle East No importa. Only insofar as they have a lot of poor people and make a lot of babies, inept, corrupt governments, clan societies, and a lot of resources. The Chinese will brush them aside when they decide they want secure deliveries of raw materials. Like in Zambia, where there already today live 20,000 Chinese. The Middle East and Africa will become Chinese colonies.

The Chinese aren't retarded enough to believe in the evils of "colonialism". The greatest advantage of China is its ruthlessness. Machiavelli would be proud.

If the West was more like the Chinese, America/Europe would be MUCH more powerful than it is today.

If the West was more like China we would be working for 10 cents an hour and allowed to have one child.

I have stopped buying into the hype, America will re-invent itself if the dollar crashes. The powers that be are already afraid of the underground economy that is starting to take place in certain states.

Post: #17

It is good to see how educated and independently thinking the members here are.

Here are a few things we are up against:
http://www.economist.com/node/18586448
http://www.economist.com/node/18898016

When the economy is good, it hides lots of problems. When the US hit its credit crises in 2008 and the market crashed, big ponzi schemes suddenly were revealed (along with businesses that appeared to be amazing and were really shit.) The same thing is going to happen to China, but its going to be a lot worse -- here is why:

China is not an open democracy with human rights. China is an authoritarian state with an fantastic number of people to manage. Given their current occupation of other countries populated by other ethnic groups, China really is an "empire" in the truest sense. This may prove very difficult to keep together.

I suspect there is widespread corruption on a regional government level in China in relation to their economic growth targets. Any abrupt slow down is going to massacre the finances of the Chinese banks and those invested in infrastructure projects. Also China has the death penalty for many financially related crimes. The results could be interesting.

Paideia makes a good point about the male/female ratio. Long term, this should be greatly destabilizing to Chinese society. Russian brides are not going to be moving to China to make up for the difference, as if that would be enough pussy to make up the difference.

As far as education, college education by itself means nothing. In India, something like 10% of college graduates are even capable of working in a call center http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...19826.html I'm guessing that China graduating engineers in large volume would have similar issues.

On the other hand, these problems will keep their currency weak. Lets face it, no one wants industrial production in their back yards in the US, and even fewer want to work in a fucking factory snapping together parts 12 hours a day.

Post: #18

"It is better to be feared than to be loved."--Machiavelli

Post: #19

Thats scary, less than a week after my post -- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-24...crash.html Kind of summarizes this whole thread.