Post: #1

Hey guys, Trump paid off my credit card debt.

I'm hoping this turns into a mastermind thread where we can all profit from PredictIt and other betting sites.

I'm making this thread because I won a bunch of money on Trump, and had a feeling of, "fuck yeah, now what"?

Fuck fantasy football. Let's consolidate our knowledge on obvious trends. For example, Newt could become the chief of staff. 35 cents on the dollar.

But I need a second opinion on most picks.

Hopefully Samseau comes in with some high energy.

Post: #2

2018 midterm senate maps look promising.

Lot of battleground states there that currently have Dem Senates but will swing the other way.

It'd be great to get write ups on the current affairs of those states.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...ions,_2018

Post: #3

Politics is ripe for betting right now because the odds are a reflection of public opinion. Remember how utterly SHOCKED the world was when Trump won? This forum knew it was going to happen. Mainstream media propaganda is causing our betting competitors to make bad bets. Our knowledge of game and persuasion gives us an edge. Hopefully Trump's win won't dry up the pond too quickly.

A word of warning with PredictIt: They take 10% of your profits and 5% of anything you cash out. A 15% take is pretty steep. That being said, your odds should be good because it did seem like a liberal haven during the US election (although I believe CTR had a large influence).

I used 5Dimes to bet during the election, but I'm not sure what their future slate of political betting will look like.

Post: #4

I put a little cash against Paul Ryan, but that isn't looking very good anymore.

Post: #5

(11-15-2016 11:59 PM)wi30 Wrote:  I put a little cash against Paul Ryan, but that isn't looking very good anymore.

Almost did the same. Can't believe they would reward that bastard that did so much to get Clinton into office.

Post: #6

I would caution against the "that was awesome, what next" attitude. Dalio is famous for saying that his edge comes from knowing what he doesn't know enough about to take a position in. The day after Trump won, I cashed out all of my winnings as I don't see anything particularly ripe in political betting in the near future (and I don't have the time for sports handicapping anymore).

Post: #7

I left a little bit of my Trump winnings in my account to play around with. I blew my load a little early on betting against Ryan when all the rumors were surfacing. There's still a slim chance he might not get in but I didn't put enough money down to affect my life in any way.

I've lost more in fantasy football leagues. I follow politics a lot more than any sport nowadays.

I'm waiting to see what's going to happen with Marine Le Pen. That could be another potential Brexit or Trump victory.

Post: #8

December 4th is 'Quitaly'--the Italian referendum. My Italian coworker said it's most likely going to go through.

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3936/...-2016#data

Not quite sure how this betting works so don't know if it's a good deal.

Edit: Okay so it looks like a Yes bet is a good deal. Not guaranteed to go through but undervalued which makes a god bet.

Post: #9

Saw Peter Schiff's take on Trump's presidency posted in several places including this forum. According to him, hyperinflation is coming with a Trump presidency so that leads me to believe that precious metals and real estate are hedges against that. GEO my prison REIT and all of my financials are way up this week too - rate hike looks near certain with Trump in the oval office.

Post: #10

Next potential bets: Austrian elections on Dec 4th, Italyexit, French elections next year for Marine Le Pen und Germany elections for AfD

Post: #11

Actually we might want to level up our politics betting game into the big boys league and take our betting to the stock markets.

FPÖ in Austria (basically Trump-like party) is sitting at 1.5 betting odds, which basically means people think it's very likely that they'll win. And that makes sense, this is merely a reelection from the previous one which was cancelled and scheduled for a re-vote due to critical errors. And already during that first round FDÖ basically won. Now they would've had a lot of positive turns of events happening that'll push them over in the "guaranteed win" terriroty: refugee crisis, high profile terror attacks, rapes, Brexit, Trump win. Favorable circumstances for a right-wing party that is against immigration for sure.

Front Nationale's Marine Le Pen is tricky,sitting at 3.5 betting odds. While many people for sure had the pleasure of getting to know the rapefugees and general beurs from the banlieus up close, a lot of Frenchmen are still turbocucks and seem to follow the German model of politics of "this is THE designated right-wing party, and no other party to the right of that one shall ever be allowed!". In Germany the designated "this far and no more to the right" party is CDU/CSU, in France it seems to be the party of Sarkozy. That those seemingly designated right parties tend to move heavily leftward/centrist over time, nobody ever seems to account for. And the French have a weird election system where they go for 2 rounds and the in the second round all parties collude to oppose the Front Nationale, so it might still be a nailbiter.

In Germany, AfD will make YUGE gains in most states but they won't win the Chancillor position. Still, for a "new" party it's a huge slap in the face to the old parties and a wake-up call to the nationalists that it's ok to be conservative and patriotic, you're not alone.


Andway, my big league betting questions for these events is: what stock will move? I've never really thought about the stock market as a correlation to events. I mean sure we know what a Trump win will bring us culturally and in general economically, but what SPECIFIC sectors/companies stand to profit/lose and what ACTIONABLE steps can you as an individual take to bet on those specific outcomes via stocks? Obviously a political win is just merely primarily emotions, but emotions drive prices and stocks so one would have to think about what people THINK a LePen win implies for the economy. Who do they think stand to gain the most from it? Border patrol agencies? Companies that build chain link fences? To be honest, I don't know specifically. Do you? Let's brainstorm

Post: #12

http://vesselnews.io/ai-predicts-le-pen-...president/

Quote:Marine Le Pen is on course to be the next president of France, according to one fund manager’s big-data analysis.

Arun Kant, chief executive and chief investment officer at Singapore-based investing firm Leonie Hill Capital, told CNBC he expected the right-wing populist to prevail thanks to his firm’s proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) system’s analysis of troves of data.

His analysis — which he said incorporates inputs such as social and traditional media discussions, polling, economics and demographics — predicts that Le Pen will “walk over” her opponents in the first electoral test and then prove most forecasters wrong and steal the lead in the second ballot, Kant said.

The French vote is split into two phases, with the top two candidates from the April 23 round due to face each other in a second run-off on May 7. In the running alongside 48-year old Le Pen are former economy minister and independent candidate Emmanuel Macron, conservative ex-prime minister Francois Fillon and socialist Benoit Hamon.

Kant’s AI program predicts that Le Pen would take 28 percent of the vote in the first round, he said, which would best 16.4 percent for Fillon, and 19 to 20 percent for Macron.

These are some interesting figures. I might see what happens in the 1st round. If figures are close I will put down some money on le pen in 2nd round. I don't believe it's true that le pen has no chance in the 2nd round, it's most likely falsified polling data.

Post: #13

It'll be a bad idea to count Marine out, but I think 1/3.8 isn't worth the risk.

If it was 1/7, I'd bet.