In passing, if you want to analyse what makes a movie a complete stinker - i.e. the lowest ROI films of the past 70 years -
Velikovsky looked at them here. Perhaps one of the biggest risk factors he identified was that: the movie is a drama, as opposed to horror, comedy, action, of sci-fi. Above all, a drama is generally a depressing story - and people, as the ROI analysis indicates, do not want to watch depressing stories in the form of drama. (Also, the moment your budget gets above $2 million, it's a major risk factor for film failure). And most interestingly, the
only films that get a higher gross as a result of an Oscar are dramas - all other genres are basically unaffected, which suggests the entire Oscar panoply of bullshit is mainly designed to prop up the drama genre to prevent it fading into oblivion.
Moving on.
Breaking down these insights,
you can find most of the theory on this page.
Quote:#1 – Two-Part Structure – The story is in 2 `parts’: i.e. “Before”, when everything is `going well’; then disaster strikes; and the 2nd part is “After” – when everything goes badly for the hero/s due to `the disaster’. (Note the similarity to Aristotle’s 2-part structure of ancient Greek plays. Not that ancient Greek plays are movies.)
#2 – Villain Protagonist: the villain `acts first’, and “drives” the story – and the hero is constantly reacting to the villain’s actions (and/or their outright attacks on the hero/s).
#3 – Villain Triumphant – the Villain / `story-protagonist’ either: 1) wins (ie the hero either loses, or, dies), and/or 2) escapes justice, and/or 3) at the very least: escapes. (This is in 17/20, and arguably, all top 20 RoI films.)
#4 – No Character `Arcs’ – By the film story’s end the hero/s has not undergone a `transformational character arc’; if anything they are just even more like they were, at the start of the story.
#5 – The 3 Primal Themes – 1) Life & Death, 2) Family/Community, and 3) Justice/Revenge. In other words: all very “survival of the `fittest'”.
#6 – Present Day – the majority of the Top 20 RoI Films (17/20) are set in the Present Day (relative to when they were made). This is logical as period pieces and future stories are (usually) more expensive.
#7 – Temporally Linear – No `parallel narratives’ (like say Rashomon, or Pulp Fiction, or even reversed time like Memento, etc). As cinematically wonderful as those non-linear story structures are (I would suggest those three films are uncontested masterpieces) the structure of the top 20 ROI Films, is just plain: Linear. There are narrative ellipses (eg Starting with the Backstory: 30 Years Prior, as with Halloween and Friday The 13th), but otherwise the films are linear. The assumed exception is Primer but, as a time-travel story, it is actually linear.
#8 – A Love Story – This is not in all 20 (it is absent in The Blair Witch Project). But is in the majority (19 out of the 20). So include a love story in your High-ROI Film Story, if you wish – but it is clearly not essential for a Top 20 RoI Film.
#9 – Be a Writer-Hyphenate – all 20 of the top 20 RoI films, the Writer (and conceiver of the Story) was involved in production (as Director, Actor or Producer, etc), and, did not simply provide the Story/Screenplay and then `step aside’ during production/further story development. Note also how this also correlates with DK Simonton’s finding in the excellent Great Flicks (Simonton, 2011) – whereby, overwhelmingly, the writer-director is more successful in realizing a quality (award-winning) cinematic vision. (Is this an argument for auteur theory? Yes, but only in the case of Writer-hyphenates with this empirical Top 20 RoI study, and, in the case of Writer-Directors in Simonton’s empirical study. Classical auteur theory posits the director as the `Author’ of the film. Contrapositionally, this new knowledge positions the Writer-hyphenate as `the primary author’ of the Top 20 RoI Films.)
#10 – Use the StoryAlity Story Structure Syntagm – see below, for the 10-Act Story Structure in all 20 of the Top 20 RoI films. These 10 key ideas/memes/points above (including, the story structure below) can increase the statistical probability of your film going viral. (Note: Do they guarantee it? No. Luck and timing/Zeitgeist plays a part; and this largely cannot be controlled. However – these (memes, listed here) are: 10 things that can indeed be controlled, by a film storyteller/writer/director/creative producer.)
On the Act structure:
Quote:The following page count / screenplay structure applies to a 90-page screenplay.
(Note that 90 pages is the median-average length of the archetypal Top 20 RoI Film screenplay. i.e. 90 pages/minutes is itself an average of: both the `average’ and the `median’ length of the Top 20 RoI screenplays, when realized as a film.)
Act 1 – The First 1% of your screenplay – Page 1 (of 90 pages) – Showing the Hero(s) at home/work/base.
Act 2 – Ending at the 2% mark – Page 2 (of 90 pages) – An Ally Complains.
Act 3 – Ending at the 5% mark – Pages 3 to 4 (of 90 pages) – An Obstacle Appears.
Act 4 – Ending at the 8% mark – Pages 5 to 7 (of 90 pages) – Pursuit/The Chase.
Act 5 – Ending at the 14% mark – Pages 8 to 12 (of 90 pages) – The Shape Of Things To Come and The Thematic Dialog Line.
Act 6 – Ending at the 23% mark – Pages 13 to 20 (of 90 pages) – Trouble In Paradise.
Act 7 – Ending at the 38% mark – Pages 21 to 32 (of 90 pages) – Paradise Lost.
Act 8 – Ending at the 61% mark – Pages 33 to 53 (of 90 pages) – The Descent Into Hell.
Act 9 – Ending at the 85% mark – Pages 54 to 73 (of 90 pages) – The Battle Royale.
Act 10 – Ending at the 100% mark – Pages 74 to 90 (of 90 pages) – The Villain Triumphant.
Let's take, for example,
Rocky, which falls at No. 6 on the list (all the other 19 top ROI films are on the same page above). We're going by what happens in the story minute by minute in the script (in scripts, 1 page is usually 1 minute of screen time):
Quote:ACT - % - STORY EVENT - BEAT
1 - 1 % - Rocky fights Spider Rico in the run-down boxing gym - The Hero at home/work/base
2 - 2 % - Rocky is head-butted by Spider Rico. - A female fight fan calls Rocky a “bum" - An Ally complains
3 - 5 % - Rocky shares some booze with the local hoboes - An obstacle appears
4 - 8 % - Rocky tries to court Adrian, she ignores his advances - Pursuit / “The Chase”
5 - 14 % - Rocky’s boxing gear has been cleared out from his old locker – and put on `Skid Row’. In the bar, Rocky says: “Hey, Andy, are you crazy? This man is champion of the world. He took his best shot and become champ. Huh? What shot did you ever take?” - The Shape of Things to Come & the Thematic Dialog / Dramatic Irony line
6 - 23 % - Apollo Creed decides to give a local fighter a fight - Trouble in Paradise
7 - 38 % - Adrian doesn’t understand why anyone would be a fighter, Rocky says you have to be a moron - Paradise Lost
8 - 61 % - Rocky gets furious at Paulie and pummels the beef carcass - The Descent into Hell
9 - 85 % - Creed ridicules America, the fight begins - The Battle Royale
10 - 100 % - Creed wins the fight, Rocky is beaten to a pulp - Villain Triumphant
Note, re: Act 5 – The Shape of Things to Come & the Thematic Dialog / Dramatic Irony line: Rocky’s line: “Hey, Andy, are you crazy? This man is champion of the world. He took his best shot and become champ. Huh? What shot did you ever take?” ironically foreshadows the events of Act 7 onwards: Rocky “takes his best shot”, although he ultimately loses the fight to Creed.
Two points:
(1) This is not to suggest Stallone was consciously following this sequence when writing the film. Again, the analysis is purely taking the data and seeing what conclusions can be drawn from the patterns in that data.
(2) There will be some looseness in the identification of beats, i.e. some interpretation of story events required. This form of scientific analysis is not the same as providing a physics-based equation, because not all facets of popularity can necessarily be controlled for. But story can: and when you look at the manner in which each of the top 20 films are analysed, the patterns are undeniable.
What does this have to do with novels?
Because I'm not interesting in screenwriting; notice it requires a budget and that the writer is intimately involved in the filmmaking process throughout for a movie to even stand a chance at getting onto that list.
A novel, on the other hand, requires no budget, is pretty much
all the writer, and is purely story. The problem is that nobody will ever tell you exactly how much money a novel ever made; these figures are closely guarded. So I got to thinking: all right, since the issue is audience reach or "virality" of a story, why not look at a novelist's first novel, or their first
successful novel that propelled them into the mainstream or turned them into a blockbuster success? Since many of the principles of story hold for both film and novels, could it be that a similar phenomenon exists in novels as well?
I'll get to the results next post. However, the books I decided to look at were these:
The Name of the Rose.
Dune.
The Da Vinci Code.
Jurassic Park.
Rising Sun.
Song of Kali (Dan Simmons' first book.)
First Blood.
I chose these because - bar
Rising Sun which was just a book I liked - these novels all went on to "break out" the author into mainstream success or were turned into fairly successful films.
Song of Kali hasn't, obviously, because it's too Red Pill on Indian racism for the MSM, but it was Dan Simmons' first book, the one that turned him into a successful horror/science fiction writer - I'll have to go back and analyse Hyperion one of these days to see if the pattern holds there as well.
I will say this, though, as an example of what I found: I went at looked at the first volume of George R R Martin's series,
A Song of Ice and Fire. I broke the book down into the number of written pages (controlling as best I could for chapter headings and promo material at the front and back). As most of you will know, the first book ends with the birth of Daenerys's dragons. It's built up as the climax of the novel; Daenerys loses her human child so Drogo can "live", who she then murders and immolates in order to hatch her dragon eggs. The book ends on Danerys's dragons opening their mouths and screaming for the first time.
I turned to the page at which we hit the end of the 14% mark of the book (I will go back and run down the precise page numbers later.) Velikovsky calls this the "Shape of Things to Come/The Thematic Dialogue" story beat, i.e. you expect foreshadowing or some dialogue that speaks to the theme of the book in that region.
On that page, Ned Stark recalls Robert Baratheon's words on being presented with the bodies of the Targaryen children murdered by Gregor Clegane:
"
I see no babes. Only dragonspawn."
I had a chill go through me. This book had been written in 1991, at least twenty years ahead of Velikovsky's research, and here I was staring at something that seemed to validate what he was saying.
I'll go through the other books in a later post, but -- in more than broad terms -- his propositions appear to play out for successful "make me into a famous novelist" books as well, when you start to break the books down according to the ratio.
God save us from people who mean well. -storm