Post: #1

All other things being equal I think this is a good opportunity but as your aware there are a ton of factors influencing real estate prices so this is just a chance I am sharing rather than a guarantee.

Real estate prices in Vancouver, BC are quite high and the provincial government introduced the foreign buyers tax and the soon to be introduced speculation tax to hurt prices. It’s impossible to estimate the effect of these taxes on prices but I’d say if they were removed we’d see a 10-20% increase in residential prices.

Currently going through court is the case against the foreign buyers tax (which could likely be applied to the speculation tax).

Looking at the legality I think they will win on that it violates several of our international treaties and the charter challenge. Barry Appleton who is a highly respected NAFTA lawyer gave a good explanation of why it violated NAFTA here https://www.straight.com/news/746041/tra...ates-nafta

Lawyers update on the trial is here
http://www.branchmacmaster.com/foreign-n...perty-tax/

Amended notice of claim is here
http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/29...%2F15xE%3D

If this passes I expect prices in Vancouver to rise immediately. The answer should be given in 2019.

The market here has dipped and right now may be the best time to buy to take advantage. I am just alerting people to a possible opportunity, read the research and make your own opinions.

Post: #2

Why are you obsessed with this? Do you have $3 million laying around in the bank and you're flipping Canadian crackshacks?

Rooshvers can't afford this kind of stuff. Maybe the 10% of Rooshvers here could afford stuff like Mexico / Central American beach apartments, Thailand 1-bedrooms or even stuff in Batumi where I just spent some time in.

Post: #3

No need for aggression. We’re all friends here?

If you can’t afford an opportunity it’s still good to know it’s out there, and some will be able to. It’s not like my post is hurting anyone, seeking to enrich myself, or is providing false information.

I received a lot of help and good advice from this forum so I’m just giving back however I can.

Post: #4

I've looked at Vancouver for investment properties, as I used to live there. I am uncomfortable with the idea of quick flipping. But, specific to Vancouver and several other international "hot markets", I am also uncomfortable with using real estate as a growth investment.

My main problem with Vancouver is the very obvious case of "Black Window Syndrome" that is going on. For those not familiar, this is where you will have many developments (condos mainly) that will be 100% sold, but the building will be dark - literally you can encounter buildings and residential neighbourhoods that are unoccupied. The Sun and The Province both have done some good reporting on this. Also, The South China Morning Post has a Hongkouver Blog (yes, this exists) that has reported on some of the various immigration and tax scams that are involved in Vancouver real estate. The reason for all these new foreign ownership and investor laws is that you have places like Vancouver and Sydney, in which local citizens have been priced out of their own cities by foreign investors who are merely using real estate as a cash store. These are, in a way, fake markets. And, the bubble has to burst at some point.

I am far more comfortable investing in dual-purpose real estate. That can be residential property, it was some place I could/would move to if the market slowed down or crashed. I don't think I would ever live in Vancouver again. And, you don't find a lot of farmland in the metro area. So, that's out too.

I would rather own prodcutive farmland somewhere else, or a mixed use unit that I could rezone as an office, or any number of other things than residential real estate in Vancouver.

On a final note, I will just add (as, again, I used to live in Vancouver) - taxes at all levels, insane regulation verging on total nanny state, insular business and social markets for the best deals, etc. If you want to invest in Vancouver, wait until the big one hits and then help rebuild.

Post: #5

With interest rates continuing to climb (As the BoC is the FEDS BITCH) i dont see prices rebounding in the near future. They are way too detached from reality, and its greedy locals who pumped up the market due to speculation, not shady chinese dudes.

Post: #6

Tiger I would love to hear more about how you invest in farmland. Do you lease it out? If so how easy is it to lease out? What are the % returns you usually get? Are they triple net?

Post: #7

Real estate does not react instantly to news like the stock market does... It is prudent to wait, and if the decision goes like you expect you can go buy a place the next week and pay a couple % more at most.

Post: #8

(11-15-2018 07:04 PM)Quays2 Wrote:  Tiger I would love to hear more about how you invest in farmland. Do you lease it out? If so how easy is it to lease out? What are the % returns you usually get? Are they triple net?

Yes, I'd also like to know the where and how of farmland investing.

Post: #9

The best place to invest right now in real estate is Greece. If anyone has local contacts with agencies or banks please share. Or local info.
Canada real estate is hot due to Chinese immigration investment. China has 1,3B people. If you could make the equivalent on the proportion of population regardding of all the chineses which invested in Canada with Canadians investing in China it would probably amount to 20-40 People. It means nothing for China. There’s so many Chinese. Just 2 cities Guangzhou and Shangai together have more population than Canada combined. The foreign tax means nothing to wealthy Chinese. They don’t care. The only thing which can diminish prices are global interest rates, a clamp down on money laundering regarding overseas money. Restrictions on capital exit from China. Or the end of the investment programs. If residencies continue to be sold by investment and not restriction is placed for the capital entering. Forget about any recession.
Chineses at this moment are buying up Athens. Prices are going up. But I believe it’s still in the sweet spot where local Greeks are not yet saturated from Chinese and foreign investment.

Post: #10

I own property in Vancouver.

There are some places I have been eyeing for some years now, waiting to see if the correction comes and then grabbing one. The NDP socialists are taxing anything that moves, so smart money is sitting this out waiting to see how bad they fuck up so we can get back to business. Unfortunately here, its the perfect storm of stupidity (Federal, Provincial, Municipal governments are all turbo left socialists) so a lot of the wealth and investment here is sitting idle or going to Washington (Bellevue).

I know this won't last as a city of 3 million has too much energy for socialism to really take hold. The Chinese and Indian communities especially have been making WAY too much money to see the retarded leaders kill the gravy.

Regarding empty condos, its a myth. We have less empty homes here than NY based on pop. We are slightly higher than Berlin, which is often used by socialists on how to build housing markets. Towers are often fully glassed and finished while the interiors are still steel studs. Once they are move in ready, they are certainly not dark any longer. Coal Harbor started the whole myth, but all those towers went up at the same time so it did feel like it was dead.

Its an interesting time right now though. I was having coffee with a prominent development CEO and he is sweating a bit. Vancouver has the longest permitting process in the world and the carrying costs plus design process takes YEARS and the city doesn't care. The last government used developers as their own personal bank account to fund stupid shit like slapped on bike paths with no real urban design and proper integration. Its a mess. Developers are also used by the government to be on the hook for most of the social housing in Vancouver. Which in Vancouver means prime real estate, often near the water, and in the most expensive locations (outside of where the politicians live, of course).

Vancouver is a great example of how to get rich in real estate, and any socialist government needs to show their hate filled voters just how much they too hate money (they don't) so they say they will kill real estate and tax the Chinese. But the reality is most of the buyers in Vancouver are locals climbing the property ladder. So all the foreigner tax shit is blowing up in their face and the locals are still moving properties, but at a less pace then a few months ago.

Our current Dear Leader was a union bus driver (sound familiar?) who thinks he can be the first man in the world to puppeteer a housing correction.

Post: #11

Interesting find from the OP but I have concerns about flipping for just a 10-20% gain. RE is not liquid, and transactions are slowing down. I would hate for a flip to turn into a hold. I mean look at the responses on this thread already, how many of them are positive and screaming "yeah i wanna buy now!"?

Post: #12

City council just passed the city wide plan and agreed to improve development times and examine aka “cut down” on fees. No details just agreed to start doing it. Results always take a year+ to show up.

I find it very promising that Swanson got out voted 9-1 to turn that site into welfare housing. Instead there doing a business case analysis to see if they have the funding to support it (hint hint they won’t). The provincial might be ndp but with 5 npa and 3 greens were still leaning a bit right in Vancouver.

Residential is going down but commercial is doing very well in Vancouver in 2018 with some big deals. Likely because the governments ignoring commercial so supply is heavily restricted.

This was me pointing out an opportunity that no one knows about, the market itself is incredibly risky.

Post: #13

I would gladly take the other side of your bet, sell me an instrument that will short that market and I'll give you all my money.

Post: #14

Edit

Post: #15

(11-15-2018 07:04 PM)Quays2 Wrote:  Tiger I would love to hear more about how you invest in farmland. Do you lease it out? If so how easy is it to lease out? What are the % returns you usually get? Are they triple net?

(11-15-2018 08:37 PM)Duke Main Wrote:  

(11-15-2018 07:04 PM)Quays2 Wrote:  Tiger I would love to hear more about how you invest in farmland. Do you lease it out? If so how easy is it to lease out? What are the % returns you usually get? Are they triple net?

Yes, I'd also like to know the where and how of farmland investing.

Detailing the myriad of ways to invest in farmland would require, at least, a several page data sheet. From my admittedly limited experience so far, I will say that, yes, you lease plots out - unless you want to farm the land yourself. It would seem that most who invest in this way buy land that is already being actively farmed, often by different groups/families. It is then up to the owner to decide who stays and who goes. This requires some knowledge of farm operations (or someone to do that for you) as you need to be able to accurately project yields for X, Y, & Z to see who is underperforming.

The less developed the country, generally, the cheaper the farmland and labor. That should be obvious. But, there is a tradeoff with rights and rule of law. Also, several countries (cough, in SEA, cough) either outright ban or seriously hamper the purchase of land by foreigners.

I won't get too specific with the countries that I am dealing with. But, I will say that I am averaging 5-6% (which is a bit high for farmland). I am comfortable with it so far, as immediate return was not my sole reason for investing. That's another thing with farmland. You are playing the long game, even on yearly returns (if that makes sense). Some years, you might have a massive crop of whatever just as there is huge demand in the market. Other years, you get flooded out and the farmers take a loss. Fortunately, the farmers take a disproportionate loss, but still. As far as what is covered by the owners and what is covered by farmers/tenants, it varies by country. I will say that I have heard that even in SA countries where triple-net arrangements aren't allowed, the money still kicks back to the owner.

For higher returns, I am currently looking in to a farmland REIT-like program that invests in well-placed but over-farmed land and then attempts to recuperate the land. Initial returns to investors have been quite high for farmland, but it requires more due diligence.

That's all I'll say for now, as I don't consider myself an expert in this field by any stretch of the imagination. I will mention that I have focused my investments on property that I could move to and work in SHTF situations, or if I need to avoid extradition or something .

(11-15-2018 09:36 PM)Laner Wrote:  I own property in Vancouver.

There are some places I have been eyeing for some years now, waiting to see if the correction comes and then grabbing one. The NDP socialists are taxing anything that moves, so smart money is sitting this out waiting to see how bad they fuck up so we can get back to business. Unfortunately here, its the perfect storm of stupidity (Federal, Provincial, Municipal governments are all turbo left socialists) so a lot of the wealth and investment here is sitting idle or going to Washington (Bellevue).

I know this won't last as a city of 3 million has too much energy for socialism to really take hold. The Chinese and Indian communities especially have been making WAY too much money to see the retarded leaders kill the gravy.

Regarding empty condos, its a myth. We have less empty homes here than NY based on pop. We are slightly higher than Berlin, which is often used by socialists on how to build housing markets. Towers are often fully glassed and finished while the interiors are still steel studs. Once they are move in ready, they are certainly not dark any longer. Coal Harbor started the whole myth, but all those towers went up at the same time so it did feel like it was dead.

Its an interesting time right now though. I was having coffee with a prominent development CEO and he is sweating a bit. Vancouver has the longest permitting process in the world and the carrying costs plus design process takes YEARS and the city doesn't care. The last government used developers as their own personal bank account to fund stupid shit like slapped on bike paths with no real urban design and proper integration. Its a mess. Developers are also used by the government to be on the hook for most of the social housing in Vancouver. Which in Vancouver means prime real estate, often near the water, and in the most expensive locations (outside of where the politicians live, of course).

Vancouver is a great example of how to get rich in real estate, and any socialist government needs to show their hate filled voters just how much they too hate money (they don't) so they say they will kill real estate and tax the Chinese. But the reality is most of the buyers in Vancouver are locals climbing the property ladder. So all the foreigner tax shit is blowing up in their face and the locals are still moving properties, but at a less pace then a few months ago.

Our current Dear Leader was a union bus driver (sound familiar?) who thinks he can be the first man in the world to puppeteer a housing correction.

Is it really all a bunch of politicking? I was dealing with my guy at Wall Financial and he was driving me around to sold out projects that were dead. Maybe he was just hitting the low-lights, but he has a financial incentive to build these things up, not tear them down.

Post: #16

The empty homes tax in Vancouver is raising an estimated $30 million in the first year. Assuming the average value is $1 million with a 1% tax that means 300 places were empty. But they also applied the empty homes tax to developments waiting for permits so the numbers are very deceptive.

When new developments get built there is a long period to get your occupancy permit. To my knowledge the used market had slowed down but I’ve heard developments are still selling just not at the pace as previous.

New developments only get finished in 3+ years anyway and most predictions are that the slump will have ended by then.

Post: #17

(11-16-2018 04:22 AM)Tiger Man Wrote:  Is it really all a bunch of politicking? I was dealing with my guy at Wall Financial and he was driving me around to sold out projects that were dead. Maybe he was just hitting the low-lights, but he has a financial incentive to build these things up, not tear them down.

It may have been that way 15 years ago, but for the past 5 - 10 its been a very tough rental market here. There are not enough places to live, even at high prices. When I bought, part of the reason was that rental vacancy kept trending downward and building was not keeping up with demand. And here we are.

I do remember the hype of 'Empty Condos and Homes' but I personally never experienced it or knew people that did. Going back 10 years I moved into a new luxury high rise that I saw being called a "New empty condo" by the media. The building was probably 90% full. But it was amazing how many friends would ask if its weird living in an empty building. So even people that had been to my place, seen the line waiting for elevators, say people on the rooftop club, they were still parroting the myth of it being an empty condo.

Post: #18

(11-15-2018 03:46 AM)BaatumMania Wrote:  Why are you obsessed with this? Do you have $3 million laying around in the bank and you're flipping Canadian crackshacks?

Rooshvers can't afford this kind of stuff. Maybe the 10% of Rooshvers here could afford stuff like Mexico / Central American beach apartments, Thailand 1-bedrooms or even stuff in Batumi where I just spent some time in.

An apartment in the Marriott tower in Batumi

Post: #19

Anecdotal evidence, but two friends have sold their places in the past week.

One was a one bdrm bought for $330k in 2013 and sold in 3 days for $679k

Other was a 2 bdrm bought for $740k in 2016 and sold $1.1mm in two weeks.

Both are moving up in location and quality.

The first guy managed to get a move out date of May 2019 when his new place is finished building.

Both realtors said there is still lots of movement in condos, especially well located 2 bdrms.

Post: #20

Your right Laner it’s mostly detached housing and luxury, places above $1,000,000 that aren’t moving as fast. Demand still exists itsnjust buyers are choosing to compete for lower end real estate which is a safer investment.

Post: #21

(11-17-2018 04:13 PM)Quays2 Wrote:  Your right Laner it’s mostly detached housing and luxury, places above $1,000,000 that aren’t moving as fast. Demand still exists itsnjust buyers are choosing to compete for lower end real estate which is a safer investment.

The ultra high end is seeing the most change right now. Many are selling for millions under asking, and some people are getting hosed right now trying to get rid of homes now before it falls further and they see larger losses.

I tried connecting two of my clients last week, one who needs to sell an $18mm condo, and another who wants to buy again. He sold his Pt Grey house for a ridiculous amount last spring, telling everyone who would listen that it was the top. He made his fortune on timing, and he was right again. Guy lives in a hotel for $25k a month and wants to move out, and I was hoping he might go for the condo. He's going back into a house though, but he's not sure what and where.

I guess what I am saying is there is A LOT of money here in Vancouver still, but we are sure feeling the hesitancy of people trying to see what the NDP gets up to in the next while.

Post: #22

About Real Estate investment opportunities, on another continent: Serious money can be made in Europe, playing on the "migrants crisis" and growing "White Flight". For example, at the beginning of the "Syrian" migrants crisis, when Mutti Angela recklessly opened the borders, it was time to buy in Prague, where wealthy Frankfurters fled to in disgust.

Now, Prague is too expensive and it's probably time to buy in Breslau-Wroclaw or ex-Karlsbad Karlovy... the idea is, to know or guess where the rich Western Europeans will flee, and are fleeing, to escape the waves of migrants and insecurity. Imagine how much money the savvy people who bet on Prague apartments five years ago, or Vilnius properties eight years ago, made!

Even within the big capitals of the West, one has to guess which areas will become "enriched" and unlivable, and which areas can still be OK for real-estate investment... In France for example, the secret is to know where the State would have the possibility to settle "refugees", and then avoid these areas like the plague. For example, any area with a State-owned little-used building can and will be turned into a "refugee" hotspot, so, one has to study the area and look for vulnerable State-owned property.

Post: #23

(11-16-2018 06:45 PM)Endless Escapes Wrote:  

(11-15-2018 03:46 AM)BaatumMania Wrote:  Why are you obsessed with this? Do you have $3 million laying around in the bank and you're flipping Canadian crackshacks?

Rooshvers can't afford this kind of stuff. Maybe the 10% of Rooshvers here could afford stuff like Mexico / Central American beach apartments, Thailand 1-bedrooms or even stuff in Batumi where I just spent some time in.

An apartment in the Marriott tower in Batumi

Batumi had a 25% summer vacancy (for aparthotels) in 2017 according to some websites. Most locals told me 2018 wasn't a great year either. Then the city is full of a lot of megaprojects that will finish within 4 years (which will probably add 1,000+ summer rentals).

I am looking at buying an apartment just for myself to live in and then maybe speculate over 20-30 years.

When I look at apartment prices in places like Playa Del Carmen: they're only 100% more than Batumi and yet Playa Del Carmen has tourists year round. Batumi is a ghost town for 8 months of the year.