Post: #26

find bookies which dont update their prices quickly enough, take advantage when the lines move. it's a lot of work for a small edge and some bookies will seize funds if they notice what youre doing.

That's pretty much the only way unless you know something the bookie doesn't, otherwise its all been factored into their price.

Post: #27

Every football season (and I'm talking real football not soccerball), I find myself starting off red hot then cooling off around week 4 then staying cold until the playoffs when I return with a vengeance. The ebb and flow of it all is just too exciting. Good thing I'm not losing serious paper. It's gotten to a point where I can't enjoy a football game without putting money on it. Yikes!

(10-09-2013 08:11 PM)Merenguero Wrote:  Also, if you lose money at a sportsbook (I've never lost. Knock on wood), is there any tax benefit?

Wow, as in never ever ever ever lost an outcome?

Post: #28

I bet on Sports a little bit however I've kinda lost interest in sports over the past few years so don't keep up enough to really be an educated better. Even the most educated person who knows sports and tracks stats can't be right all the time.

I think serious sports betters basically average barely over 50% win ratio but over time and with volume they come out ahead, similar to blackjack players and card counting.

I have a buddy who does pretty well with sports betting. How he makes a lot of his money is actually selling sportsbetting picks kinda like that Pacio and Mathew Mcconaheigh movie about sports betting. He's been doing it for years about 10 years ago he had me setup a website. He sells single picks, or packages for a week, months, or season. Alot of sportsbetting guys don't charge money but give you a pick, ask you what your going to bet and try to take a percentage of your wins. This is a way to make more money but your also chasing money all the time, good luck getting someone to try to pay you for something you told them over the phone with no real commitment.

As for online sportsbooks, spreads are obviously not as good as Vegas or your local bookie but the convenience is nice. I have always used Bodog which is not Bovada or Sportsbook. At one time I used to use BetJamaica but I think they've gone away.

If anyone signs up for Bodog aka Bovada use promo code P8453A7 and we both get some free bonuses.

Post: #29

I like to bet on UFC and sometimes smaller MMA events and usually come out ahead. Hopefully we can use this thread to share strategies that we use to beat the books!

Post: #30

If someone wants to get into sports arbitrage, check out http://arbusers.com. It's probably the best forum to learn from since a lot of the guys there seem to be doing it for a living.

I'm warning you though, it's really heavy and technical to get into. You're also at the mercy of the online bookies and they don't like "arbers". To make it even better, it's very hard to do unless you're in a betting friendly country (not the USA).

For the risks, see the wikipedia article here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting

On the surface, it really doesn't seem like a great idea, but some people make a very decent living off of it.

Post: #31

I only bet on European soccer. It can be profitable in the long run but only if you know a lot about soccer and the teams that are playing. Knowing how to read a game can also be very useful if you are doing live bets.

For someone who wants to seriously get into soccer bets I have some tips:

1) Learn the game. Watch as many soccer matches as possible, play soccer yourself, learn about tactics. This can take years but it is 100% necessary in order to be a successful better. You need to understand the game if you want to bet. If you don't it is better you play roulette or blackjack.

2) Focus on 1-2 different leagues maximum and study all teams and players in that league. You need to become an expert on those leagues. Big European leagues are the most fun to watch because they play the best soccer BUT they are also the most popular ones, which means that the bookies are experts on those leagues as well and the tiniest bit of information will change the odds. If a player is injured for example, the bookies know that and will adapt the odds in their favor. If you are focusing on a more exotic league and use a smaller sports betting website however, the advantages are on your side. Most betting sites don't care much about small and exotic leagues because they generate a lot less revenue. Hence, they don't put much emphasis on the odds they offer for the games of those leagues which is good for you.

3) Do as many live bets as possible. Betting on a game before it has started is stupid, because you have no idea in what condition the team is on that day. Many times I only need to see the first 10 minutes of a game and I get an idea on how the game will progress and who I should bet on.

4) Stay away from stupid bets like "who wins the kick-off" or "who has the next freekick". They are purely based on luck. You want to bet on something that you think you know better than the bookies.

Post: #32

I bet on real football, not the hand-egg version. Mainly English or Scottish games, and some European. Don't expect to make big money unless you have some sort of computer algorithm to do the work for you, but you can keep an overall profit if you are intelligent about what you do. My tips would be:

1. You must know the game. You can't expect to just look up the recent results of a team or look at their league position and make a bet off that basis. Know the history between the teams, the players who are in the starting line-up. You don't have to know the name of every team in the Spanish second division, but at least stick to betting on stuff you are sure about.

2. Unless you are very confident otherwise, stick to odds-on betting for match results. Teams that are often given odds-on to win are Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Celtic, PSG. I generally don't like betting on match outcomes.

3. Wait for games to start before placing your bet, and use the 'cash out' option many betting sites have. If, for example, Barcelona were 2/15 to win 2 hours before kick off, it can be a good idea to wait until you place your bet for them to win. This is because as the game progresses, assuming Barcelona haven't scored yet (and if they do score, the odds are going to go to something like 1/100), then the odds shorten and if it is still 0-0 after 15 minutes you could get perhaps 3/15 for them to win. This in itself is a sort of bet, but there is no cost to it.

4. The best markets in my opinion are the number of goals scored in a game, yellow/red cards, and scorers at anytime. You can bet on there being more/less than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 or higher goals scored in the game.

5. Diversify your options and stick to small bets. Always keep a reserve deposit to fall back on, and try to never eat in to that. Once you have enough winnings, try and bet with those and save a certain %.

Post: #33

This is one of my bread and butters. Yes, it is doable. No, I do not recommend it, and there is a lot of nonsense written in this thread.

To start with, I will say that very few people actually win at sports betting by outhandicapping the sportsbook (as in betting based on having superior knowledge in the sport or a particular matchup), although there are certain spots where its possible, like being someone who works in the boxing industry. The general rule is that the sportsbook has most likely already considered whatever extra knowledge that you think you have. I would say that out of winning sportsbettors, only 2% do it this way, and most of these people utilize machine learned or other statistical models, not through just being a fan of the sport.

The remaining 98% of serious sportsbettors make money based on guessing at what lines the sportsbooks are giving that are intended to kill the squares or based on the characteristics of a particular sportsbook, through lineshopping, or through rather specific setups, some of which may get you banned from Vegas after awhile as they will be watching for those.

If you must try, I recommend reading Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. If you don't understand that book, then stay the hell away from sportsbetting.

Post: #34

^^^ Yea I sharp as well. Its all based on computers stat crunching all the data and punching out #s.

The $ is pretty ridiculous if you have a good model. Its basically a formula to print $.

The rest of the sharps scalp books when their #s change to squeeze out 1-2% edge.

Yea, some of the local books allow me to wong teaser

Post: #35

(01-11-2017 02:30 AM)DVY Wrote:  ^^^ Yea I sharp as well. Its all based on computers stat crunching all the data and punching out #s.

The $ is pretty ridiculous if you have a good model. Its basically a formula to print $.

The rest of the sharps scalp books when their #s change to squeeze out 1-2% edge.

Yea, some of the local books allow me to wong teaser

It boggles my mind that you can still find books out there that allow you to do a wong teaser or a correlated parlay. I have heard that some even offer two teamers at even odds still, though I have yet to see such a stupid book since pre 2004.

Post: #36

Have a family member that's a professional sports bettor. His angle is that he's partnered up with a former NFL player. He claims that his partner has detailed knowledge of in-game conditions, player profiles, and other it-factors that give him the edge on mostly pro games but also some college games in the Pac12 where the corner played. The other end of the partnership comes in to the mix with outside capital and being a math whiz, I'm guessing he must employ some arbitrage techniques or finds the best places to bet especially because his partner has been banned from betting at most of the books in Vegas.

TBH, I have no idea if he's talking shit or not, but so far it seems like he's doing OK for the past few years.

Post: #37

What are the odds of online legalized sports book in our country? I realize the big casinos are primarily the ones blocking it, but I hate hearing about people still using bookies. The tax stream would be massive if the feds allowed it.

Post: #38

Any pros have thoughts on super bowl? I'm thinking about throwing down some fun money on the Pats at -3.

Post: #39

(01-20-2017 02:28 PM)booshala Wrote:  Have a family member that's a professional sports bettor. His angle is that he's partnered up with a former NFL player. He claims that his partner has detailed knowledge of in-game conditions, player profiles, and other it-factors that give him the edge on mostly pro games but also some college games in the Pac12 where the corner played. The other end of the partnership comes in to the mix with outside capital and being a math whiz, I'm guessing he must employ some arbitrage techniques or finds the best places to bet especially because his partner has been banned from betting at most of the books in Vegas.

TBH, I have no idea if he's talking shit or not, but so far it seems like he's doing OK for the past few years.

in college I could see this working, especially if you have a great handle on a particular conference

as for NFL, players associated league guys tend to be the worst analysts [from an ATS point of view] for myriad reasons (coaches and QBs are the exception)

I would buy the college part but not NFL at all, until I saw how he bet and structured his knowledge of lines and movement

ps -
I'm a pro sports bettor btw (NFL my best, though most sports leagues are changing so drastically this is all in doubt moving ahead)

Post: #40

(12-28-2016 06:02 PM)britchard Wrote:  4. The best markets in my opinion are the number of goals scored in a game, yellow/red cards, and scorers at anytime. You can bet on there being more/less than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 or higher goals scored in the game.

Lots of great tips there, britch.

I have bet the last 3 euros and world cups, and have done exceptionally well, and it's interesting you note this, my feeling is that my totals (goal o/u) betting has been superior to really good side betting. Because the world loves the games so much a lot of stuff is offered and it's there ripe for the picking if you are fairly sharp.

Post: #41

I've personally worked in tech side of sport betting for 3 years in London. Our job was designing the software which calculates the odds.

In nutshell, you might win few times. But in the long run, this is the business who profits. Don't risk your cash on them.

(10-01-2012 09:18 PM)LoveBug Wrote:  Does anyone believe that there is a consistent, valid way of making money betting on sports?

When I was younger, I used to bet on certain sports games. Never made any money consistently but never had much acumen for the craft or a method to what I was doing.

Recently I had a friend who claims to make money from sports betting much like an investor in the stock market does. He diversifies his bets and over a period of time makes money very incrementally.

I wonder if it is as simple as attaining the winning sports picks from a bettor with a known winning history and just gutting it out until you make a profit over the long haul?

Post: #42

I've been betting for 7 years in a row, mostly on Italian football. When I calculated it overall, I made $6k each season on average for 6 years and I lost big time on one season, thanks to Bayern - Chelsea game. I lost $8k on that game alone. If Bayern would have won it, I was gonna be in profit all 7 seasons.

Post: #43

(02-01-2017 12:43 PM)Rossi Wrote:  I've been betting for 7 years in a row, mostly on Italian football. When I calculated it overall, I made $6k each season on average for 6 years and I lost big time on one season, thanks to Bayern - Chelsea game. I lost $8k on that game alone. If Bayern would have won it, I was gonna be in profit all 7 seasons.

Inspirational stuff man, much respect!
Sorry to hear about the Bayern Chelsea debacle but other than that you've had incredible returns
Would love to know what sites you use to source the info for your bets or if you just go on your own knowledge?
If you prefer to keep it private, we could chat by IM
Cheer man

Post: #44

I usually go on with my knowledge and I don't bet every day. As for this season goes, I bet 72 games, I won 56 and lost the rest. I'm about $2200 in profit but in football, you make profit March and on.

Most profitable months are March, especially April and May.

Post: #45

Your username triggers me, when I see it, I feel like someone kicked me with his knee viva la figa? No! Jorge.

On the subject I know a guy who's a self made "hundred-thousand-aire" lol...by better on over-under in NBA. He spent days and nights analyzing players, watching games, taking notes. Leveraged the fuck out of it and cashed out.

Post: #46

So I should chime in, most of you who are trying to beat the sportsbook...got news for you. Aint going to happen.

The small minority that do either build their own models/statistical analysis that out-handicaps the bookmakers....and we are talking maybe gaining a 1-3% edge on the books

This is maybe 1% or 0.1% of the population. The sportsbook flag these players and move their lines in response to them, guaranteeing everybody else lands in a dead-zone. which is where neither side bet will win long-term.

Everybody else pretty much guaranteed loser. You won't beat the juice. Most of the times the "sharps" will bet openers for certain sports. For example college basketball totals (o/u) is usually bet 6am PST or 9am EST.

If you are laying bets 1 hr before the game, its basically almost always a loser long run.

There is also flagrant "insider-trading" where market movers will move the market one way or another to gain edge, because the sportsbook automatically moves their lines in response to a certain few players. This causes all sorts of weird quirks in the betting markets for short periods of times. If you can catch those quirks, you will win BUT good luck figuring out what is a "insider trading" move and what is just random noise.

Beyond just the information, you need a significant sum of $ to make all this worthwhile as variance can kill any size fortune if mismanaged. Generally you need about 100-200x the regular bet size to weather the storm of luck. Counting living expenses (say 50k eating away every year on your bankroll) means that very few people can even have the luxury of being a "pro gambler".

Id say a minimum bankroll needed to be successful is at least 100k (living expenses of no more than 20k/year). If you haven't reached that level, id advise spending your time on something else

Post: #47

Who says you can't profit from sports betting? Of course, you can.

I don't know any American sports, I only bet on soccer because that's what I grew up with. I don't bet everyday too but it's very likely to make a profit. I made profit so many seasons but I'm nothing compared to some of the people I know.

Post: #48

I bet sports for a living full time and average 6% return on investment and turn over around £1m per year. The game is dying though so wouldn't recommend starting now unless you have a huge bankroll.

Tonight's super bowl was:

James White any time 10/3
Pats in play 3/1
Pats +15.5 in play evens
Falcons in play 1/20 (oops)

Post: #49

So I fucked up on the Superbowl here, was gonna bet on ATL going into the game, then at halftime I saw the score and thought about betting on the Pats.

Anyone know what I would have won assuming a $100 bet on ATL going into the Superbowl and a bet on Pats at halftime would be?

Post: #50

I think it's better to avoid all these things 'coz sports betting can be quite addictive.