Post: #51

(02-06-2017 12:34 AM)jj90 Wrote:  So I fucked up on the Superbowl here, was gonna bet on ATL going into the game, then at halftime I saw the score and thought about betting on the Pats.

Anyone know what I would have won assuming a $100 bet on ATL going into the Superbowl and a bet on Pats at halftime would be?

I looked during half time.

Patriots to win Super Bowl was 11.70 during half time on Bet365.

$100 to win $1170

Post: #52

ATL were 2.3 before the game and 1.15 at half time so $100 could have been turned into just under $1000 if you bet them before the game then switched onto Pats.

Post: #53

(02-05-2017 11:03 PM)dongiovanni Wrote:  I bet sports for a living full time and average 6% return on investment and turn over around £1m per year. The game is dying though so wouldn't recommend starting now unless you have a huge bankroll.

Tonight's super bowl was:

James White any time 10/3
Pats in play 3/1
Pats +15.5 in play evens
Falcons in play 1/20 (oops)

don gio

why do you say the "game is dying"? I'm interested in your response.

Post: #54

Books are taking less bets and are better at shutting down accounts and more smart money coming to exchange markets. For example cricket was so bloody easy a few years ago and these days I'm not even having a single bet in some games because the market is so tight in play.

I'm doing OK for now and still making 6 figs sterling a year in EV terms just about but if a couple of my edges stop I'll probably be off to Australia as it's a bit more liberal over there (basically 5 years behind UK).

Post: #55

(02-06-2017 08:05 PM)dongiovanni Wrote:  Books are taking less bets and are better at shutting down accounts and more smart money coming to exchange markets. For example cricket was so bloody easy a few years ago and these days I'm not even having a single bet in some games because the market is so tight in play.

I'm doing OK for now and still making 6 figs sterling a year in EV terms just about but if a couple of my edges stop I'll probably be off to Australia as it's a bit more liberal over there (basically 5 years behind UK).

I do agree that it is getting much nittier. Most online places that mark you as a sharp will provide only pinny + juice lines, though at the moment they don't update lines fast enough so sometimes you can scalp.

Online will eventually go the way of poker and only be populated by bots and sharps. I think the only reason that the betting exchanges aren't there yet is it isn't quite liquid enough to interest the higher moneyed sharps.

Though politics, certain prop bets and certain types of sports wagers will probably stay soft. Plus just like poker, live will also stay soft, as the tourists will always insist on laughable square lines.

Post: #56

(02-06-2017 12:34 AM)jj90 Wrote:  So I fucked up on the Superbowl here, was gonna bet on ATL going into the game, then at halftime I saw the score and thought about betting on the Pats.

Anyone know what I would have won assuming a $100 bet on ATL going into the Superbowl and a bet on Pats at halftime would be?

Atl was +130 going into the game, and Pats were +500 (5/1) at halftime. If you bet $100 each time you would've made $400 ($100*5 - $100 lost on Atl). So that would've been a huge return on your investment. I think the general point is that this is pretty unlikely to work consistently, and that over time the sportsbook will have the edge.

Edit: I see a few people posted that it was 11/1 in some places. Interesting. The site I use was 5/1.

Post: #57

(02-07-2017 03:46 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  

(02-06-2017 08:05 PM)dongiovanni Wrote:  Books are taking less bets and are better at shutting down accounts and more smart money coming to exchange markets. For example cricket was so bloody easy a few years ago and these days I'm not even having a single bet in some games because the market is so tight in play.

I'm doing OK for now and still making 6 figs sterling a year in EV terms just about but if a couple of my edges stop I'll probably be off to Australia as it's a bit more liberal over there (basically 5 years behind UK).

I do agree that it is getting much nittier. Most online places that mark you as a sharp will provide only pinny + juice lines, though at the moment they don't update lines fast enough so sometimes you can scalp.

Online will eventually go the way of poker and only be populated by bots and sharps. I think the only reason that the betting exchanges aren't there yet is it isn't quite liquid enough to interest the higher moneyed sharps.

Though politics, certain prop bets and certain types of sports wagers will probably stay soft. Plus just like poker, live will also stay soft, as the tourists will always insist on laughable square lines.

Well, ultimately they are in business for the recreational bettor who likes action and large reward instantly, but loses long term. I can see mainstream as cpu access only and then big betting small volume types.

Politics is an interesting angle. Is your premise that those markets are bad [inefficient] because of bad inputs, or because they are so infrequently wagered due to cycles, data isn't solid over the long term to make a trend or formula for winning?

Which type of sports wager is the softest, least wagered, or most forgotten in your estimation?

Post: #58

Let me share one of my parlay for Sunday.

Fenerbahce win 1.48
Besiktas win 1.34
PSG win 1.23

All 3 teams to win: 2.43

More than double. I'll bet $300. To win: $431

Post: #59

(02-18-2017 09:09 PM)Rossi Wrote:  Let me share one of my parlay for Sunday.

Fenerbahce win 1.48
Besiktas win 1.34
PSG win 1.23

All 3 teams to win: 2.43

More than double. I'll bet $300. To win: $431

Thanks, shame I didn't check back before now.
How did it go?
I'm currently betting on tennis and football and neither are going so well. Am down a few hundred since the start of the year.
Think I need to rethink my strategy.

Post: #60

So I've been cut short at a bunch of books that I play at and am willing to throw this out there.

If any of you have a local book that you play at (not a major online book...aka 5dimes, pinnacle, bet365), shoot me a message and we can work out some kind of split.

My team has been kicked out of more books that I can count....

PS: I was talking to some guy here who said it couldn't be done. Got new for you...Pinnacle and Bookmaker (Betcris) has heavily limited us in certain minor sports. The big boys in sportsbetting know whats up...so take "sports cant be beaten" w/a grain of salt

Post: #61

Does it have to be in United States?

Post: #62

USA/Canada atm only. PM me

Post: #63

Klitschko Joshua II could be a massive opportunity

Post: #64

I bet on sports pretty much everyday.

Post: #65

If you have a enough money you can play on football draw formula, which was popular and not many can play as it requires money. Mostly odd for draw is generally 3.0 (decimal), you chose a team from top European leagues one which in previous season played most draws. You start betting only on draw of that team and in case you lose, next week you double money, eventually team will draw and you will always stay winning. This is nerve cracking formula, requires money and long-term commitment.

I used to play myself online when I have time on Weekends and could x5 any money easily on live games, mostly on Table Tennis, Volleyball, Rugby and MMA fights. First I watch match and when situation approach a critical moment would bet, odd is small but if you win 10 or so such bets daily you can easily x10 your money. Small odds and lots of them.

Post: #66

I think betting on sports is similar to betting on stocks for this simple reason: the game is better served not by your own intuition, but seeking the guy with the proven picks and paying him for his expertise

Post: #67

Mayweather now 3/10 odds. One of the best bets of all time.

Post: #68

Mcgregor opened at $5, now down to $3.90. I wasn't going to bet at those prices - $5 was not high enough odds to throw my money away on mac, and mayweathers odds would need too much money down to make it worthwhile.

But if they keep on building it up and a bit more mug-punter money comes in for Mcgregor, pushing mayweathers odds up over $1.30, I may have to take their money.

Post: #69

(08-18-2017 06:38 PM)king bast Wrote:  Mcgregor opened at $5, now down to $3.90. I wasn't going to bet at those prices - $5 was not high enough odds to throw my money away on mac, and mayweathers odds would need too much money down to make it worthwhile.

But if they keep on building it up and a bit more mug-punter money comes in for Mcgregor, pushing mayweathers odds up over $1.30, I may have to take their money.

Anyone know a good sports betting site in the US that I could use to bet on this fight? I need one where I can put in thousands and be able to withdraw the money directly after the fight.