Post: #1

Myanmar (Bhurma) has captivated me for a long time and now with sanctions lifted, the government in transition, and the gates opening back up, the economic growth foreseen there will be unprecedented. A lot of people are bound to get rich if they play their cards right. The population is huge and has nowhere to go but up, natural resources are plenty, and the tourism industry potential is out of this world.

For someone with a real wild west mentality that wishes they would have gotten in on Thailand 20 or even 30 years ago, it seems like the perfect time to get over there and dig in your feet.

That said, governments and multinationals are all queued up to be first through the door - many have already pushed their way in. And while they're currently allowing 100% foreign ownership of business, I believe you need to show 150K in funds to get the ball rolling. could be wrong about these numbers so if someone is watching this closely, please chip in here.

That's not a lot of money, really, but it is for someone just starting out. Not to mention that it's a lot to needlessly put aside for a business just for the sake of doing business, and the volatility of Myanmar - the unavoidable uncertainty - makes a shoestring scenario ideal.

On top of all that, they're experiencing a real estate boom that is artificially driving rents and real estate prices far higher than is realistic. It'll pop eventually, but for a startup the rising and falling of rents could be a real issue.

Anyhow, this is my question for those of you paying attention (and especially those with boots on the ground business experience) - is there any room for the shoestring businessman in all the excitement and opportunity to come? If so, where and in what industries?

And even if actually starting a business there would be out of your reach right now, due to lack of investment funds, do you think it would be smart to just jump into a place like that while it's still relatively early, start learning the language, make contacts and look for opportunities to open up?

Obviously it's not the most livable place in the world by anyone's standards, but it would certainly present an adventure. I mean, think about it - this is akin to North Korea or Cuba suddenly being opened up (or at least one mere step down from it)...

Just have been turning things over in my head and want to know if any of you have been doing the same. Feel free to pose anything about business or work opportunities in Myanmar here.

Beyond All Seas

"The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe.
To be your own man is a hard business. If you try it, you'll be lonely often, and sometimes
frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself." - Kipling

Post: #2

When I was there a year ago all around the country Chinese businessmen I talked to were surveying the opportunities and frothing at the mouth at all the potential cheap labour for factories.

Post: #3

Frontier capitalism is all the rage in the investing blogopshere.
- Myanmar
- Iraq
- Afghanistan
- A lot of West Africa

If you can stomach the risk, it's a good move.

I've said before on this board, that I know people that buy in China and sell in Africa, and became rich as a result, because they aren't afraid of dealing with corruption.

WIA

Post: #4

My main concern would be investing time, money, and energy, only to have the local mafia or government come in and try to strong arm you and take your shit. While lawless frontier places have great opportunity, usually they come with great risks to match.

Post: #5

This is definitely a topic I'll be exploring over the next 12 months.
I was there back in 2009 and people were hungry for jobs, growth, and opportunity. They adored the West. I think it's a lot less volatile than West Africa. Found the people a lot more welcoming/friendly. They haven't been fucked by the West yet being, and they aren't exactly in love with China, as the Chinese have been pillaging their resources (essentially their only trade partner under their past closed regime).

That said, obviously risks are still there. I feel like the only certainty is a resource boom period, but who knows where that will take them. Somehow getting a piece of that in a derivative service / industry / good could be be promising.

Post: #6

I've had my eyes on this country as well, and will try to make it there either this year or the next. In the meantime, can anyone recommend any investment opportunities like specific stocks or bonds of companies there which one can buy?

Post: #7

(01-10-2013 04:57 PM)solo Wrote:  I've had my eyes on this country as well, and will try to make it there either this year or the next. In the meantime, can anyone recommend any investment opportunities like specific stocks or bonds of companies there which one can buy?

I wouldn't look to equities/bonds to get exposure. Hot/dumb money into these type of countries is a good way to lose 50% in a year. Myanmar has a stock market, but it's light to say the least. Makes Egypt's market look like the Nasdaq. Long ways to go.

For what it's worth, Silk Road started the first Myanmar index late last year, which is a start. http://www.mmtimes.com/index.php/busines...index.html

Post: #8

Bump.

Thein Sein (Prez of Myanmar) recently visited the US to visit Obama and vice versa.

Signs look encouraging and I recently interviewed a Myanmar investment expert who has been there on behalf of the Japanese government for about 15-20 years.

I'm bullish on this country and will be taking some trips there in 2013.

Does anyone have boots on the ground experience from a business/investment standpoint?

Looks like the move is to base oneself out of KL/BKK/SG and broker import/export deals if you can get an in with the government for a range of commodities, heavy industry goods, and security goods.

Consumer products are understandably not thriving at the moment as people are broke. This will change.

I think Burma is the next Thailand - or bigger - due to similar geopolitical positioning, similar culture and demographic, and immense natural resources. Used to be the richest country in Asia until the military screwed them for 50 years.

Pent up demand and man-made economic stagnation being let loose - this is a China and Deng Xiaoping situation. Jim Rogers won't stop talking about Myanmar either.



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Post: #9

Anthony Bourdain's new show on CNN, "Parts Unknown"

Interesting first episode in Myanmar.

This is very similar to No Reservations actually, except they focus less on food and more on......things that CNN would want to cover.

Post: #10

I spent the entire month of April there, this year. There are, as said, huge opportunities in that country. There is absolutely no doubt, that the country will flourish in the following years. If you go in early, which I still consider it to be, you would however be signing up for a lot of volatility. You can surely make a fortune, but you could also be seriously screwed. As long as the government has as much power, as they do at the moment, you are kind of at their mercy, unless you can stay below the radar.

Now it does not seem like any of you considered moving into the hotel/resort business, but just to take this as an example. One of the big tourist attractions, which is kind of remote and probably will see a lot more traffic in the future, is Mrauk-U. Only judging from a 2 year old LP book, there seems to be quite a few hotels, and the number has certainly increased since the book was researched. But when I was there, the government had decided to shut it of to foreigners. So suddenly all the hotels in that area are cut off from their main source of income - sure locals may still visit, but even so, they pay a way lower rate and sure as hell will not fill up the expensive places.

But if you "crack" the import business and gets efficient at getting foreign brands into the country you could be looking at a gold mine. There are very, very few foreign brands of any kind, but as they see quite a lot of tourists and TV seems to be more and more "normal", they are exposed to all these brands and may therefore be inclined to buy them.