Post: #1

For any of the Irish members - or people who have visited the country recently.

How has the financial crisis in recent years affected the country?

Is it something you can feel when you are out in the cities and speaking to people?

Or is an economic crisis - which looks bad on paper - but doesn't seem to be felt that much by the man on the street?

I am just curious. Since for all the scary headlines - the UK never feels much different when it is in a boom or a recession. At least to me - but then I have a public sector job. And so did my parents. So - maybe that gives you a different perspective.

So - with that in mind - I am wondering if the dramatic Irish crash is something that has filtered through to the people?

I am guessing so - since I read somewhere that 1 in 4 jobs (or something like that?) were directly related to the construction industry. So - when the property bubble burst - I imagine the effects would have been noticeable by ordinary people?

Anyway - I am really curious. And would love to hear reports about how things are looking in Ireland in the wake of the bursting of the property bubble.

Post: #2

You'll need to ask those in careers who are usually hard hitters. These jobs took a hit and the people had to move to England or face very few prospects. That was couple years ago but I haven't been clued up on it.

The UK economy is really fluid due to the countries involved, our position between the EU and USA and the City. Never underestimate the City for it makes or breaks this country.

Post: #3

I don't work in Finance but I try to stay abreast of what's happening generally in terms of the Economy.
Things are not helped my the mainstream media in this country (RTE, our version of BBC but not as good) and TV3 (our version of ITV but equally as bad)
They are largely puppets for the government, and feed the public the messages the Government want us to hear, for the most part.
That said, there are some decent political and economic commentators, Vincent Browne, although a bit of an old socialist codger, is at least willing to challenge the establishment and his grilling of politicians can be very entertaining at times.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAf7J4a_T1g
On another memorable occasion, he suggested the Taoiseach should top himself:
http://www.thejournal.ie/vincent-browne-...9-Oct2010/

In terms of incisive economic analysis, I quite like Constantin Gurdgiev (described by a feminist I was shagging at the time, as a 'neo-liberalist twat').
http://www.maxkeiser.com/2012/02/on-the-...-gurdgiev/
And I find David McWilliams excellent, he regularly posts on Facebook and Twitter.
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2014/04/07...ung-buyers

And as for my own opinion on how the country has been affected by the financial crisis?
Well, anyone who bought a house/apartment between 2005 and 2008 (ie. me) is in serious negative equity, with little hope of their property ever returning to the price they bought the property for, however there is a mini-bubble forming at the moment for houses in certain parts of Dublin (see the McWillams article above), but this only benefits perhaps 5% at most of the property owning public.
The banks have been very reluctant to give mortgage loans or loans for small businesses in recent years, so a lot of small business have gone to the wall, many pubs have closed, and a lot of rural post offices and police stations are being closed down.
The black market is booming in recent years, a lot of tradesmen for instance are doing jobs and getting money for it 'into the hand', ie. not declaring it, so they don't have to pay tax, this happened before, but in recent years it's gone through the roof.
And it's largely cos of the amount of taxes we've been hit with here in the last few years, as the Government gets Joe Public to pay for the Anglo Irish Bank debacle and the monumentally stupid bank guarantee which was rushed in by a panicked Fianna Fail Govenment on it's last legs a few years ago, as they realised Ireland was just about to fall into a huge unsustainable black hole of bank debt.
The last few budgets have been brutal with a lot of stealth taxes, Universal Health Charge and property tax and water taxes coming in.
A lot of people have emigrated as a result and Unemployment has balooned in recent years, although certain sectors are doing well, such as IT and Pharma.
There is some talk in the last couple of months that the Economy is starting to turn the corner, but this could be more Government spin.
For myself, although I'm earning a few grand more than a few years ago, my take home pay is less, cos of all the taxes we have to pay now.
It's pretty frustrating. Apparently there is one more tough budget to come, before we (hopefully) get out of the woods, but I fear that most of these newly introduce charges and taxes are here to stay.

It's true that the Construction Industry has collapsed for the most part, and many tradesmen have emigrated, but that said, they made so much money during the boom years, that some of them are already set up for life, and are still getting enough local work to keep them going.

Post: #4

I have become very interested in the economics affecting property and land over the past couple of months.

It started off with my interest in the nineteenth century writer Henry George - and has grown from there.

I am in the middle of reading an excellent book about Britain's strange relationship with housing:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/All-That-Is-Soli...1846147158

We are living in very weird times at the moment. For instance - I don't think London's property bubble can last much longer. And it will be very interesting to see what happens when house prices crash.

I know that rich Russians and Arabs are buying up streets in London and leaving them empty. So - it may seem that prices will continue to rise forever - as more and more rich foreigners stash their wealth by buying up houses in London. But the thing about any bubble - is that there is always some reason why "this time it is different". And it never is - all bubbles end the same way.

At the same time - across the rest of the country - average house prices are shooting ahead of average wages - and as such, owning your own house, is becoming an unachievable dream for many people.

And on top of this - you have the politicians and the media (ie rich middle class types already on the property ladder) praying that the property boom continues forever.

On top of all this - you have old fashioned writers like Henry George and modern writers like Fred Harrison who analyse the economics surrounding housing and land - and come to startling conclusions about the nature of power in the modern world. And who is really profiting from the gains produced by economic progress.

Really interesting stuff all round.

My favourite manosphere blogger has being discussing this area recently as well.

http://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/04/02/...-our-time/

http://wimminz.wordpress.com/2014/03/14/...alk-money/

Post: #5

Cardguy, you'll see a very different London once the Thames Barrier fails.

As soon as that barrier fails once you will have market jitters. It was raised more in the past few years than any other period. If we have chain-linked storms like the ones from December-January we may have such an issue on our hands.

Post: #6

delete

Post: #7

DD, wow sorry to hear that.

The description about being at the crossroads does sound eerie.

Sounds like it might be a good documentary about, an unfortunately, difficult time.

Post: #8

I can't imagine trying to commit suicide and ending up paralyzed for life.

How has you friend tried to cope with that? Is he glad to even still be alive?

Post: #9

delete

Post: #10

Men are always the ones to suffer first. Take note gentlemen. The guys who make it to this forum are like the sperms who make it through the uterus to the other side. For every guy we see posting here there are dozens who fell by the wayside.

Post: #11

Any chance this decreases the bitch shields on their healthy population of Gingers?

WIA

Post: #12

delete

Post: #13

You make a very good point.

You have to have been around during the boom - to fully appreciate the crash.

Just turning up after an economic crash only gives you half the story.

Post: #14

(04-08-2014 05:11 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  Cardguy, you'll see a very different London once the Thames Barrier fails.

As soon as that barrier fails once you will have market jitters. It was raised more in the past few years than any other period. If we have chain-linked storms like the ones from December-January we may have such an issue on our hands.

Why would the thames barrier fail???

Post: #15

Some random points:

Out of over 60 people in my engineering course only about 3 are still in Ireland.

I worked on an island that lost its entire youth sports team. All left to find work.

My dad nearly lost over a million on a property deal just before the bubble burst.

When the visas came out for Canada recently they all went within minutes. People are still leaving years later.


During the good times I know people who had 20+ staff, multiple homes and ripped up money when they were drunk. Now they are unemployment sitting at broke. People lost it all overnight.

I was too young to get caught up in it but I have seen a lot of things that have given me some serious life leasons.

It took me over a year to save up enough to leave. Now I make that same amount in 4 days.

I dont think Ill ever be moving back to be honest.

Post: #16

(04-08-2014 01:19 PM)cardguy Wrote:  I can't imagine trying to commit suicide and ending up paralyzed for life.

How has you friend tried to cope with that? Is he glad to even still be alive?

Have you read Blindness by Jose Saramago?

After the world went blind, he writes, people tried to commit suicide by jumping off of a high area, but failing and becoming only paralyzed. While blind. I think you'd just about go mad if it was just me and my thoughts.

Post: #17

(04-07-2014 06:17 PM)cardguy Wrote:  We are living in very weird times at the moment. For instance - I don't think London's property bubble can last much longer. And it will be very interesting to see what happens when house prices crash.

I know that rich Russians and Arabs are buying up streets in London and leaving them empty. So - it may seem that prices will continue to rise forever - as more and more rich foreigners stash their wealth by buying up houses in London. But the thing about any bubble - is that there is always some reason why "this time it is different". And it never is - all bubbles end the same way.

At the same time - across the rest of the country - average house prices are shooting ahead of average wages - and as such, owning your own house, is becoming an unachievable dream for many people.

And on top of this - you have the politicians and the media (ie rich middle class types already on the property ladder) praying that the property boom continues forever.

On top of all this - you have old fashioned writers like Henry George and modern writers like Fred Harrison who analyse the economics surrounding housing and land - and come to startling conclusions about the nature of power in the modern world. And who is really profiting from the gains produced by economic progress.

Well, here in New York City, it has become more difficult to buy property in particular. Overseas Chinese, Russians, and people from the Middle East are showing up at real estate sales and outbidding people who actually live here, and they pay in cash, up front. Then they rent it out to the people who work here and make a profit over the long run.

It used to be that your landlord was someone whom you knew and saw on a daily basis. Now, he lives overseas, or is never around. Try getting him to fix your broken radiator.

New York has become much safer in the past 20 years, which has led to an increase in demand for property as this world city has become much more livable. The wealthy send their kids to private schools (latchkey kids) while their parents are away.

I wasn't here when this city was more dangerous but cheaper - maybe it was better. I don't know. What I do know is that I, an educated, safe, hard-working and intelligent young bloke, will find it really difficult to buy a house in even a neighborhood that's half an hour from downtown (Manhattan).

That said, this city is full of beautiful women who are pretty easy to game once you know your way around.

Post: #18

There are a lot of Irish people who moved abroad. Ireland was always an emigration country. However in the 1990s its economy started picking up and it became an immigration country. Now a lot of Irish people are emigrating to other countries again, however there are also people who emigrate to Ireland as well.

Post: #19

(04-08-2014 02:20 PM)WestIndianArchie Wrote:  Any chance this decreases the bitch shields on their healthy population of Gingers?

WIA

WIA

Did you bang a Ginger yet? I remember seeing that on your to do list.

Post: #20

(04-09-2014 05:43 AM)Atlantic Wrote:  During the good times I know people who had 20+ staff, multiple homes and ripped up money when they were drunk. Now they are unemployment sitting at broke. People lost it all overnight.

Atlantic, that is very sad to hear but also hard to believe. How could they lose so much so fast?

I mean in theory, I get it. Overleveraged etc.

But it is surreal when it is brought down from articles about random people to actual real people that you know. I hope that makes sense.

I can't imagine how they are coping with all that.

Post: #21

(04-09-2014 07:58 AM)Yeti Wrote:  

(04-07-2014 06:17 PM)cardguy Wrote:  We are living in very weird times at the moment. For instance - I don't think London's property bubble can last much longer. And it will be very interesting to see what happens when house prices crash.

I know that rich Russians and Arabs are buying up streets in London and leaving them empty. So - it may seem that prices will continue to rise forever - as more and more rich foreigners stash their wealth by buying up houses in London. But the thing about any bubble - is that there is always some reason why "this time it is different". And it never is - all bubbles end the same way.

At the same time - across the rest of the country - average house prices are shooting ahead of average wages - and as such, owning your own house, is becoming an unachievable dream for many people.

And on top of this - you have the politicians and the media (ie rich middle class types already on the property ladder) praying that the property boom continues forever.

On top of all this - you have old fashioned writers like Henry George and modern writers like Fred Harrison who analyse the economics surrounding housing and land - and come to startling conclusions about the nature of power in the modern world. And who is really profiting from the gains produced by economic progress.

Well, here in New York City, it has become more difficult to buy property in particular. Overseas Chinese, Russians, and people from the Middle East are showing up at real estate sales and outbidding people who actually live here, and they pay in cash, up front. Then they rent it out to the people who work here and make a profit over the long run.

It used to be that your landlord was someone whom you knew and saw on a daily basis. Now, he lives overseas, or is never around. Try getting him to fix your broken radiator.

New York has become much safer in the past 20 years, which has led to an increase in demand for property as this world city has become much more livable. The wealthy send their kids to private schools (latchkey kids) while their parents are away.

I wasn't here when this city was more dangerous but cheaper - maybe it was better. I don't know. What I do know is that I, an educated, safe, hard-working and intelligent young bloke, will find it really difficult to buy a house in even a neighborhood that's half an hour from downtown (Manhattan).

That said, this city is full of beautiful women who are pretty easy to game once you know your way around.

Look into Jamaica, Queens by the LI Railroad, from the Jamaica station to Penn its 15 mins on the express. Now there is nothing in the way of a social life in that area but at least you can own if you want. Mainly a Caribbean neighborhood but now Indians are buying it up.
http://www.trulia.com/for_sale/5142_nh

Post: #22

For my Irish friends.

You always have 2024 to look forward to! :-)

Post: #23

(04-09-2014 05:29 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

(04-09-2014 05:43 AM)Atlantic Wrote:  During the good times I know people who had 20+ staff, multiple homes and ripped up money when they were drunk. Now they are unemployment sitting at broke. People lost it all overnight.

Atlantic, that is very sad to hear but also hard to believe. How could they lose so much so fast?

I mean in theory, I get it. Overleveraged etc.

But it is surreal when it is brought down from articles about random people to actual real people that you know. I hope that makes sense.

I can't imagine how they are coping with all that.

Huge loans on machinery, property, side businesses, staff payroll. Once the cash flow stopped coming in they were screwed real fast.

Imagine making 20,000 a week from your construction business so you think your 10,000 expenses isnt too bad. So you start some side business like a hairdressing salon and let your girlfriend manage it. Its not making a huge profit but she is happy and you are making enough anyway. You buy some nice cars, take holidays every few weeks and blow through cash.

Then one day no more work. 2 Business bleeding cash and all your personal loans. Guys who seemed to have it all were crippled in weeks.

Post: #24

Lack of profits kills your business like cancer.

Lack of cash flow kills your business like a heart attack.

Post: #25

I dont want get into too much detail but one guy I know went from multi millionaire to asking guys for spare jobs around the house for cash in about 6 weeks.