Post: #1

I don't want to see this topic into going "gambling is dangerous" territory or something, but I was wondering if there are any members here who are bettors on professional level (not necessary with huge bankroll, but taking their bets seriously).

Anyone want to discuss it?

Post: #2

Even if you had a 1% edge (which, by the way would take extensive testing to determine) prepare for some massive swings!

Post: #3

Also, what people don't realise is all information which is available 'research' has already been taken into account in the price. To gain an edge you need to know something the bookie doesn't or take advantage of bookies who are too slow to update their prices.

Post: #4

(04-21-2014 03:54 PM)Pinocchio Wrote:  Even if you had a 1% edge (which, by the way would take extensive testing to determine) prepare for some massive swings!

Small stakes allow me to play much smaller markets when you can have much higher edge to some bets. I've played many bets when opening odds at some bookie were 1.50-2.40 (my apology, but I don't exactly know how to translate it to US odds, even if can read them) and before kick off odds were on the opposite side. But of course it's possible only in smaller markets and in situations when one bookie (usually european) takes a risk and put odds early.

Regarding swings - I use bets from multiple sources, who are not connected to each other. So it's rare for me to have a super positive days (like going 15-5 in one day), but it's also rare for me to have very negative days (like 5-15). In theory (supported by observations and some 100% serious betting) hopefully it can give me 3-4% Yield long term, which because of doing plenty bets should make a significant (to me at least) income.

(04-21-2014 04:01 PM)Pinocchio Wrote:  Also, what people don't realise is all information which is available 'research' has already been taken into account in the price. To gain an edge you need to know something the bookie doesn't or take advantage of bookies who are too slow to update their prices.

Of course, thats what I am trying to do. For example I know someone who bets on Indonesian soccer league. Bet365 is usually first bookie which opens odds for games and "my guy" just have much bigger knowledge comparing to bet365 trader, who also have to cover many other leagues/sports.

I am also trying to take advantage of slow reaction by bookies when possible.

Just spotted a few other threads on it. After looking at them - 99% of my bets are singles and I don't use any systems. For example anything resembling Martingale is just a straight way into bankruptcy sooner or later.

Post: #5

(04-21-2014 03:05 PM)whoishe Wrote:  I don't want to see this topic into going "gambling is dangerous" territory or something, but I was wondering if there are any members here who are bettors on professional level (not necessary with huge bankroll, but taking their bets seriously).

With my plans to move to FSU country from Poland hopefully sooner than later betting in methodical and organized way I am trying to implement is one of the things I hope will give me decent income from "working" online. It isn't passive income, as it requires a lot of work, but experimenting with it since last year gives me an idea what I could expect. And early results are encouraging.

Not going now into details, but my goal is to multiple my bankroll 10 times until end of 2015, which would allow me to multiple my stakes 5 times and play it in very safe way (less than 1% of bankroll on bet). I play really low stakes (my current bankroll is only 5k USD and it's money generated exclusively from previously won bets), but I play plenty of them based on research I am doing and closed forums I am part of.

Only obstacle at the moment is that I still have to work for now at my current office and it limits my time and effort I can put into betting. But at the moment I am still far away from being able to go into full betting mode (meaning=my bankroll isn't big enough to generate enough income), so there is no other choice, but just to be patient and do things step by step.

Anyone want to discuss it?

When I was younger I was big into gambling, craps and baccarate in the casinos and sportsbetting as well. I actually used to have a website giving sports handicapping advice and selling picks. My buddy and I used to spend a lot of time at the casino. We were probably early 20's met this cab driver in his 40s who used to drive us home from the boat all the time. Kinda became friends and gambled together. This dude is crazy but also a good gambler...well good and bad.

The guy is either broke as a joke or he's got hundreds of thousands in his pocket. I dont know how he does it but he'll go to the Casino with like $500 in his pocket and stay for 3 days straight and walk out with over 100k. I can't tell you how many times this guy has run a few hundred up to a couple hundred thousands and then blow it all and be back to driving a cab.

A few years back he was up a little over 200k. Me him and another buddy went to vegas for the superbowl, plan was he was going to put all his money on the steelers and they were like +120, the payout on his bet woulda been almost 500k. We got out there Friday night at like 10pm and by 5am the same morning all the money was gone.

Another funny story, just a few months ago he was flying out to vegas with like 180k in his suitcase and got stopped going through security. Got pulled into a room with homeland security or whoever runs that stuff. He explained his money was from gambling but they saidd they were gonna tell the irs and let them deal with it. The guy never reports his winnings so that could land him in some trouble.

I have a business that needed a cash infusion, successful business but due to merchant holds to teh tune of 150k needed cash to operate. He could have made a ton of money off investing with myself and my buddy but he never wants to do anything smart with his money, also because he doesn't report it he can't really buy anything or make investments on paper as he hasn't worked or done taxes in years.

Long story short to be a professional gambler you need balls to not give a crap and risk big to win big but at the same time if you have that mentality you dont have the self control to walk away when your up big and to do smart things with your money.

Very few people have that perfect mix of self control and risk. Also pretty much every casino game besides craps, poker nad sportsbetting is setup for you to lose and even those games even the best smartest most knowledgable and controlled gambler is still up against luck basically

Post: #6

Interesting stories, but thing is - I am totally not interested into gambling. I was maybe a few times inside the casino with my friends and personally never put any money on roulette or other stuff there, was just drinking with my buddies, who lose maybe like 50 usd max that night.

Post: #7

(04-22-2014 09:27 AM)whoishe Wrote:  Interesting stories, but thing is - I am totally not interested into gambling. I was maybe a few times inside the casino with my friends and personally never put any money on roulette or other stuff there, was just drinking with my buddies, who lose maybe like 50 usd max that night.

I'm kinda confused you seemed to say you want to gamble to increase your bankroll 10x but then you say you aren't really into gambling, don't want to bet and aren't planning on betting.

I would say this 99.999999999% of people who get into gambling to make a profit or make a living fail and probably wind up worse than when they started. There are some people who make decent money playing poker, heck I've seen shows and true life episodes and stuff with young kids who make hundreds of thousands playing online poker. That said pretty much every show I've seen every kid does well for a while but once they turn it into a career/job/lifestyle and start traveling to tournaments and stuff they wind up inevidibly losing money cuz not only are you gambling which is risking your money but you have to fund these trips to the caribean, france, italy, etc all to play in these big tournaemtns which isn't cheap in itself.

For 99.99999999% of people gambling should be a fun leisure activity risking a small amount of your regular income to have some fun, most people shouldnot and will not be successful doing it as a living. Also I think many people quickly learn alot of gambling is control of your bankroll making smart bets when need be and being risky when need be. I think the mentality of a gambler is different when your out with your buddies blowing a couple hundred bucks vs when your counting on making rent by winning a bet. I think thats probably teh biggest and most challenging learninig curve for even a talented gambler taking up gambling as a career. The whole mental aspect of risk changes when its from fun to making a living.

Post: #8

Poker, bet-trading and stocks are all better than this idea imho. Gambling the house always has an edge.

Post: #9

(04-22-2014 10:32 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  

(04-22-2014 09:27 AM)whoishe Wrote:  Interesting stories, but thing is - I am totally not interested into gambling. I was maybe a few times inside the casino with my friends and personally never put any money on roulette or other stuff there, was just drinking with my buddies, who lose maybe like 50 usd max that night.

I'm kinda confused you seemed to say you want to gamble to increase your bankroll 10x but then you say you aren't really into gambling, don't want to bet and aren't planning on betting.

I would say this 99.999999999% of people who get into gambling to make a profit or make a living fail and probably wind up worse than when they started. There are some people who make decent money playing poker, heck I've seen shows and true life episodes and stuff with young kids who make hundreds of thousands playing online poker. That said pretty much every show I've seen every kid does well for a while but once they turn it into a career/job/lifestyle and start traveling to tournaments and stuff they wind up inevidibly losing money cuz not only are you gambling which is risking your money but you have to fund these trips to the caribean, france, italy, etc all to play in these big tournaemtns which isn't cheap in itself.

For 99.99999999% of people gambling should be a fun leisure activity risking a small amount of your regular income to have some fun, most people shouldnot and will not be successful doing it as a living. Also I think many people quickly learn alot of gambling is control of your bankroll making smart bets when need be and being risky when need be. I think the mentality of a gambler is different when your out with your buddies blowing a couple hundred bucks vs when your counting on making rent by winning a bet. I think thats probably teh biggest and most challenging learninig curve for even a talented gambler taking up gambling as a career. The whole mental aspect of risk changes when its from fun to making a living.

For me there is a serious difference between betting (sports betting) and gambling. In gambling long term you always lose. In sports betting, you have a chance if you are good in what you're doing. You have to look for bets when you have edge over bookie, you need to have consistent money management, well adjusted stakes per bankroll, etc...

Just to make a point (my english will limit me here, but will try):
Gambling - it;s a box consisting 10 balls, 5 red and 5 black, both pays 1.9, so in long term you lose.
Sports betting - 10 balls, but bookies think/expects it's a box consisting 5 red and 5 black. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they aren't. But since you can choose situations when you want to make a bet with bookie, you can beat him long term if doing it properly.

Post: #10

(04-22-2014 11:57 AM)whoishe Wrote:  

(04-22-2014 10:32 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  

(04-22-2014 09:27 AM)whoishe Wrote:  Interesting stories, but thing is - I am totally not interested into gambling. I was maybe a few times inside the casino with my friends and personally never put any money on roulette or other stuff there, was just drinking with my buddies, who lose maybe like 50 usd max that night.

I'm kinda confused you seemed to say you want to gamble to increase your bankroll 10x but then you say you aren't really into gambling, don't want to bet and aren't planning on betting.

I would say this 99.999999999% of people who get into gambling to make a profit or make a living fail and probably wind up worse than when they started. There are some people who make decent money playing poker, heck I've seen shows and true life episodes and stuff with young kids who make hundreds of thousands playing online poker. That said pretty much every show I've seen every kid does well for a while but once they turn it into a career/job/lifestyle and start traveling to tournaments and stuff they wind up inevidibly losing money cuz not only are you gambling which is risking your money but you have to fund these trips to the caribean, france, italy, etc all to play in these big tournaemtns which isn't cheap in itself.

For 99.99999999% of people gambling should be a fun leisure activity risking a small amount of your regular income to have some fun, most people shouldnot and will not be successful doing it as a living. Also I think many people quickly learn alot of gambling is control of your bankroll making smart bets when need be and being risky when need be. I think the mentality of a gambler is different when your out with your buddies blowing a couple hundred bucks vs when your counting on making rent by winning a bet. I think thats probably teh biggest and most challenging learninig curve for even a talented gambler taking up gambling as a career. The whole mental aspect of risk changes when its from fun to making a living.

For me there is a serious difference between betting (sports betting) and gambling. In gambling long term you always lose. In sports betting, you have a chance if you are good in what you're doing. You have to look for bets when you have edge over bookie, you need to have consistent money management, well adjusted stakes per bankroll, etc...

Just to make a point (my english will limit me here, but will try):
Gambling - it;s a box consisting 10 balls, 5 red and 5 black, both pays 1.9, so in long term you lose.
Sports betting - 10 balls, but bookies think/expects it's a box consisting 5 red and 5 black. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they aren't. But since you can choose situations when you want to make a bet with bookie, you can beat him long term if doing it properly.

Make no mistake sportsbetting is gambling. Granted you are right if you know all the angles, get in on lines when they are favorable, know about the personal lives of players, etc you can get an edge and if you come out winning say 55% to cover a winning percentage and the juice in the longrun you are right hypothetically you should be the winner.

Still though this is gambling. Your betting on an event which you have no control over. Though you can try to place betwe when lines are more favorable even the best handicappers are not always right and a team who's +21 can still win a game and take your money.

It still comes down to the a wierd bounce, a guy fumbling, etc. Also the worst is those times you get screwed because a winning team pulls players and doesn't cover a spread or a losing team plays up until the end and gets a meaningless touchdown which covers the spread.

I could be wrong but I think playing the banker in baccarat may statistically be more profitable than sportsbetting.

Post: #11

Yeah, but when you write about guy fubling - it's only one game, over the season/2 seasons/5 seasons it balances out as sometimes guy fumbling works in your favour. At the moment my max bet is 1.5% of my bankroll and I am patient enough to not care much about guy fumbling in single game.

Post: #12

Horses here, but fuck me i lose as much as i win, so i do it for fun

Post: #13

Gotta build something like The Computer Group: http://www.offshorebettor.com/images/COMPUTER.htm

Billy Walters runs his own show now, dunno if he just bullshits how much he bets. Most of his money now is in crooked Golf Course deals in Nevada.

The key is to get some boffins to do statistical studies on all the factors in play, tell them you're only betting like 10k a game, then build a syndicate that lays like hundreds of k on games. Of course when The Computer Group operated, the oddsmakers didn't even use computers, they handicapped the Frank Rosenthal way. Old school, but dwarfed by a computer.

Given the complexity, still fun to play. Better than throwing money like a slots zombie and being one of those lotto droolers.

Post: #14

I place money on football betting. I am a pretty avid follower and like to keep on top of things so I have a general idea as to what I want to bet on. Sometimes I will do it to enjoy a game more in which I am a neutral. You must always be willing to walk away from your loss.

I will usually place a bet in 10%, 30% and 60% increments.
e.g. $100:
$60 on safe/cover bet of 60% of 1-2 teams (return original amount + small profit)
$30 on medium accumulator (3 teams)
$10 on a risky bet with higher odds. HT/FT 5 team accumulator

A lot of betting is like poker, namely bankroll management. Control that and you will improve your results and stability exponentially.

Post: #15

For me accumulators are a no-no. I will more aften take a single with a serious underdog who IMO is undervalued by bookies than accumulator, especially if it requires short or medium priced favourites.

Post: #16

(04-23-2014 06:53 AM)whoishe Wrote:  For me accumulators are a no-no. I will more aften take a single with a serious underdog who IMO is undervalued by bookies than accumulator, especially if it requires short or medium priced favourites.

Yes, that is my main bet as well to cover my original betting budget. The accumulators usually are for entertainment purposes.

Post: #17

(04-23-2014 06:55 AM)Noir Wrote:  

(04-23-2014 06:53 AM)whoishe Wrote:  For me accumulators are a no-no. I will more aften take a single with a serious underdog who IMO is undervalued by bookies than accumulator, especially if it requires short or medium priced favourites.

Yes, that is my main bet as well to cover my original betting budget. The accumulators usually are for entertainment purposes.

I guess I treat it much more seriously, cause I don't do bets with entetainment value. Only the ones when I see opportunity to make money. And there can be days when I am betting on much less profiled games that I actually don't watch.

Post: #18

(04-22-2014 08:20 AM)jamaicabound Wrote:  Very few people have that perfect mix of self control and risk. Also pretty much every casino game besides craps, poker nad sportsbetting is setup for you to lose and even those games even the best smartest most knowledgable and controlled gambler is still up against luck basically

Do you think you're setup to lose at blackjack even if you use a system? I implemented the Basic Strategy in this book and at least broke even after betting for a weekend. Before I would be out a lot of money.

Do you have any suggestions for learning the rules and strategies of craps? I have to say I've tried to learn multiple times and never got the hang of all the intricacies of the game. But I've heard from a lot of various sources that craps has the lowest winning margin to the house.

Post: #19

Horses for me especially when one like Frankel comes along. God I love him.

Post: #20

Not sure if a thread about gambling should be categorized "Making Money."

Post: #21

My ex-wife was a pretty skilled card counter and both of us played basic strategy to a T... so we would usually play $25 flat bets and jump up to $400-$500 and she'd signal me by touch when the count was high. I think over the course of our marriage we walked away roughly $20,000 up although we had some really bad nights where we lost $6-7k and a few killer nights where we were up $10k. The rest of the time we grinded out small wins or losses.

I tried for years to learn how to throw controlled rolls with dice but that shit is damn near impossible. Basically trying to negate the x-axis of spin and "set" the dice to increase the probabilities of certain numbers.

I understand casino gambling is a mook's game, but I think it's fun as hell and I've spent money on way stupider things than a few hours of entertainment.

Post: #22

(04-25-2014 01:27 AM)booshala Wrote:  My ex-wife was a pretty skilled card counter and both of us played basic strategy to a T... so we would usually play $25 flat bets and jump up to $400-$500 and she'd signal me by touch when the count was high. I think over the course of our marriage we walked away roughly $20,000 up although we had some really bad nights where we lost $6-7k and a few killer nights where we were up $10k. The rest of the time we grinded out small wins or losses.

I tried for years to learn how to throw controlled rolls with dice but that shit is damn near impossible. Basically trying to negate the x-axis of spin and "set" the dice to increase the probabilities of certain numbers.

I understand casino gambling is a mook's game, but I think it's fun as hell and I've spent money on way stupider things than a few hours of entertainment.

I have a buddy who's lately all about the controlled dice thing. Many people swear by it.

My personal opinion is this. I think it's probably better to at least attept to control the dice than not to at all. That said every casino I've ever been to has those pyramid foams around the craps well. Every casino I go to will also not count a roll if you don't hit the backstop. Now yeah some people throw a weak throw and just try to touch the backstop. you may be able to get away with doing that for a roll or two but within a role the pitboss or dealer will tell you to stop throwing like a pusy and hit the backstop or pass the dice to the next roller. Those pyramid foam lining is designed to not allow you to control the dice and as long as the casino actually enforces making you hit the backstop I think that basically makes trying to control the dice pointless. that said i still do it.