Post: #1

Hey guys, this is something that is way out of my field so I would love to get some feedback. I've acquired a decent amount of euros recently as work payment and I now need to convert them.

However I've noticed that the currency is at a ridiculous lowpoint (1.22 EUR/1.0 USD). I've checked some history and it seems the euro was way higher just earlier this year. Is the euro really capable of going even lower? Should I just convert now or can I wait it out?

Post: #2

The EUR is going down, to 1.2 and even on par with the dollar. The European Central Bank openly suppressing the EUR, and also the USD is getting very strong. Just get rid of it and convert to USD.

Post: #3

(12-07-2014 05:25 AM)Glaucon Wrote:  The EUR is going down, to 1.2 and even on par with the dollar. The European Central Bank openly suppressing the EUR, and also the USD is getting very strong. Just get rid of it and convert to USD.

Depends on how long you can keep it. Over time the Euro will stay and the Dollar MUST fall. The Euro is the template for the global currency consolidation. It will NOT FALL under any circumstances.

There is a reason why the Euro has fluctuated from 1,20 to 1,35 (with some occasional ups) for over 12 years. It started up around 0,85/parity and it's extremely unlikely that it will break through the previous lows around 1,15/1,20.

I would observe it around this period, if it breaks through 1,18 and especially 1,15, then you can sell. Otherwise the likelihood is higher for the EUR to return to 1,30-1,35 within foreseeable time.

But remember - traders don't care about market movements. If you are right 20% of the time, you are a multi-millionaire, if you cut your losses, but let your winners run. In any case - it's a calculated risk - losing 0,07/0,08 or winning 0,15 within a few months. Would sell at 1,145 if it reaches that level - otherwise wait for 1,30+ - if some bad economic news strikes the US, you might luck out and sell at 1,40+ or higher.

Post: #4

"Must fall", "NOT FALL", "will stay"; I hope your god or something to predict such strong economic analyzes.

Post: #5

(12-07-2014 09:54 AM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  "Must fall", "NOT FALL", "will stay"; I hope your god or something to predict such strong economic analyzes.

Heh - that part of the equation is just my personal perception - could be decades off and many parameters in between. Just my own view of global long-term economic patterns - nothing to make money off or be concerned about.
I see no quick collapse and Zombie-apocalypse mayhem.

_____

The other part of the trade is valid though.

Post: #6

I wouldn't recommend taking advice on the direction certain commodities/investments etc are going off the internet. There are people who dedicate their lives to trying to predict this stuff, and if they are good, they get it right only slightly more often then they get it wrong.

Post: #7

(12-07-2014 10:51 AM)Seadog Wrote:  I wouldn't recommend taking advice on the direction certain commodities/investments etc are going off the internet. There are people who dedicate their lives to trying to predict this stuff, and if they are good, they get it right only slightly more often then they get it wrong.

Wrong - guys who are good at it to make money off it, don't even have to be right 50% of the time. That is one common misconception. Economic predictions are always wrong. The only reason they are somehow right is, because they update them every quarter.

If you are able to really predict things, then you are either divine or the richest man on Earth after 10 years.

Post: #8

Concerning economic aspects I think no one can make a final prediction or prognosis these days.
But there are many currencies in which you could invest, not just the US Dollar.
You have the Swiss Franc, the Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone,Danish Krone, British Pound and Canadian or Australian Dollar for instance.

Post: #9

Get rid of your euros asap! The e.u. is a sinking ship and the dollar will shoot through the roof by the end of next year (2015). Mark my words! Feel free to come back to this thread in a year and you will see!

Post: #10

Lets do away with the pedantics can we? Fine. Right more than half the time on a dollar averaged basis. I played poker successfully, won like 8% of my hands which was less than my share but made money. Nassim Taleb was wrong heaps more than he was right, but a couple huge scores and you're in the money.

My point was that as a little guy you don't have near enough information to confidently make a call one way or the other.

Are you confident enough to short 10b Euros like George Soros did with the pound years ago? But even that was not a sure thing. Favourable odds/payoff, but not sure.

Post: #11

(12-07-2014 01:04 PM)Seadog Wrote:  you don't have near enough information

Exactly. And if you do, you sure ain't sharing it with everyone else.

Post: #12

I'd be skeptical of people advising you with hyperbolic statements like" MUST do," "xxx under any circumstances," etc.

As others have mentioned, there are many other, smarter people who are trying to figure out the direction of currencies. It's unlikely you'll have an edge over them.

As to whether you should convert your euros now or wait, most analysts believe its unlikely that the Euro will appreciate significantly against the dollar in the near term. The U.S. is ending QE, which will lead to higher interest rates, thereby appreciating the dollar. The U.S. economy is doing much better than the European or Japanese economy, which also leads to an influx of international buyers of U.S. stocks, which increases the demand for dollars.

Post: #13

Euro slides to nine-year low, Asia shares subdued:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-falls...54530.html

^The euro has taken a beating. With continued problems in Greece, it could even head lower.

Post: #14

(01-04-2015 11:19 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  Euro slides to nine-year low, Asia shares subdued:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-falls...54530.html

^The euro has taken a beating. With continued problems in Greece, it could even head lower.

1,20 is the support it hit once a couple years after which it rebounded every time. Only if it breaks through 1,12-1,15 will it go much lower.

Otherwise it may be the temporary low. Remember - the absolute low is when almost all market participants are bearish. Consensus and analyst opinions are the worst possible recommendations for market timing. You can even trade against analyst opinions and will make money - it is that bad.

Post: #15

The euro is fucked.

The Germans better be bluffing about kicking out Greece if the far-left party wins and reverses the austerity measures agreed to with the troika...or else shit is going to get ugly fast. Could be the end of the euro if Greece is forced out since it would open up the possibility that another country, like Spain, could be kicked out if a far-left party wins there as well.

Post: #16

Open-ended European QE set to 'start with a bang'

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-launch...29943.html

The euro is trading at $1.1377. Parity here we come!

Post: #17

(01-22-2015 01:42 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  Open-ended European QE set to 'start with a bang'

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-launch...29943.html

The euro is trading at $1.1377. Parity here we come!

I'm going to Europe this summer. Should I buy euros now?

Post: #18

(01-22-2015 02:01 PM)TheBlackRooster Wrote:  

(01-22-2015 01:42 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  Open-ended European QE set to 'start with a bang'

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-launch...29943.html

The euro is trading at $1.1377. Parity here we come!

I'm going to Europe this summer. Should I buy euros now?

I would buy half the amount you need now.

Post: #19

(01-22-2015 02:01 PM)TheBlackRooster Wrote:  

(01-22-2015 01:42 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  Open-ended European QE set to 'start with a bang'

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecb-launch...29943.html

The euro is trading at $1.1377. Parity here we come!

I'm going to Europe this summer. Should I buy euros now?

What if the Euro heads lower? Definitely possible.

There are still going to be problems with the Euro if the far-left party wins in Greece in the next few days.

Post: #20

Euro is trading at around $1.1221. That means it is down approx. 20% against the dollar since the last high around April 2014.

...and it is expected to weaken further.

A trip to the eurozone just got a lot cheaper.

Post: #21

Post: #22

wow..still about 1.13.. that means a 600 Euro apt in a nice Italian city like Bologna is affordable for the summer...

Post: #23

I asked a similar question on another thread not long ago, but with a specific time frame in mind. What do you guys think?

(02-05-2015 06:37 AM)Deluge Wrote:  Tall order, but what do you guys think the short-term outlook for the Euro/Eurozone is? I'm heavily exposed to how the Euro moves against the Australian dollar in the near future, I'll need to convert a big stack of dollars before July and another sometime in August. If shit hits the fan (like I'm selfishly praying it will) I'm going to enjoy a big increase in my purchasing power. My thinking is things in Europe could either get worse or just stay the same, but it's certainly not getting any better in this timeframe. Thoughts?

Post: #24

(02-09-2015 07:40 AM)Deluge Wrote:  I asked a similar question on another thread not long ago, but with a specific time frame in mind. What do you guys think?

(02-05-2015 06:37 AM)Deluge Wrote:  Tall order, but what do you guys think the short-term outlook for the Euro/Eurozone is? I'm heavily exposed to how the Euro moves against the Australian dollar in the near future, I'll need to convert a big stack of dollars before July and another sometime in August. If shit hits the fan (like I'm selfishly praying it will) I'm going to enjoy a big increase in my purchasing power. My thinking is things in Europe could either get worse or just stay the same, but it's certainly not getting any better in this timeframe. Thoughts?

No one can accurately predict what will happen to the EUR/AUD rate in the next few months. It may be wise to divide your total amount by 3, and convert 1/3 now, 1/3 in May, and the rest in July/August.

If you have access to a Euro bank account, make sure you use a good FX company, like CurrencyFair (https://www.currencyfair.com/), instead of just using your bank. You will save a ton on commissions and spread.

Post: #25

(02-09-2015 06:54 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  wow..still about 1.13.. that means a 600 Euro apt in a nice Italian city like Bologna is affordable for the summer...

Buying might be a great option soon. Real estate prices have not recovered from the previous banking crises in Italy, Spain and Ireland.

Zero Hedge: Morgan Stanley says Greece exit could send Euro to $0.90

25 sq mt ancient studio 9000 Euro

25000 Eur apartment in Italy

also, Spain:

26000 Eur house in dramatic setting Spain

German real estate prices are relatively cheap in places like Leipzig and Dresden, even in areas around Berlin:

Example:
Berlin apartment 135000 Euro

Rural property in Ireland:

65000 Eur house Ireland