Post: #1

As most of you are aware, there is Brexit soon, which will, according to the polls, likely pass.


But that is not the topic of this thread. The main topic is what will happen to the Euro as a currency, and about an idea I think may be stupid, OK, or brilliant.

So, if Britain leaves, we can expect that the Euro will fall, and likely never recover (because of the size of the British economy, which is still big regardless of recession). Now, if the add the possibility of Czechia leaving the EU as well (Visegrad is very pissed at the moment) , the Euro will loss even more value.

So the question is...if you have, for example, at least several thousand euros of cash, what would you do? Would it be a good idea to invest into a tangible property of some sort that would hold value before Brexit, to avoid inflation?

One of my friends has like 10k Euros. He plans to buy several used Rolex and Longines watches (rare models) which will hold (even gain a little bit of value), in order to avoid potential inflation of Euro. They would eventually be sold when the dust settles.

I am thinking of doing something similar.


Would you do something like him (invest into something that will hold value)? Or something else?

Looking forward to your responses.

Post: #2

The UK is not a part of the Euro. I don't think it will make a whole lot of difference in the short term. Long term the Euro needs the Pound.

Post: #3

Personally if I held a bunch of EU's, I'd short them against a strong currency like the CHF or commodity like Gold on an FX trading account. I don't really recommend people getting into FX trading unless they know what they're doing, but in times like these, it might be worth the risk.

Post: #4

If there's a crisis in the Euro and Sterling buy USD, Bitcoin, Gold or Gold producing stocks

Post: #5

The trick is to buy it before the crisis not after it hits

Post: #6

Many analysts expect the Swiss Franc to rise in value should Britain leave the EU. Euro and the pound are of course expected to fall in that case.

I've pondered a lot on this during the previous weeks, and from what I saw no one is considering the other possibility - Britain voting to remain in the EU. What then? Will Euro and the pound gain in value?

Post: #7

If there is a Brexit, markets will turn risk off like so Eur will get hit and safe havens assets like gold/chf/jpy will rise. Just see a recent graph of GBPJPY for example.
Eur will fall because of the "contagion effect", if UK leaves it jeopardizes the European Union project. So if you really think there will be a Brexit you can start selling cable (GBPUSD) for example. I don't know if a Rolex would gain so much in value if there is a brexit though.

Post: #8

Valid points.

Ivansirko, although the UK indeed has his own currency, it's economy is still tied to the EU. And, in case that it leaves, the overall EU economy will shrink significantly. And when a economy of a country (or supranational economic organization ) shrinks, the value of national currency will likely go down.


A good example of that is Greece. One year ago, there was a chance they would leave the Euro. Because of that, the value of the Euro dropped. I made a few hundred Euros that way - I bought them when they were low, and just waited.


Now, I believe that, in case of Britain leaving (from what I have gathered - likely, not in small part thanks to invasion), something similar will happen, but, unlike the aforementioned Greek scenario, it will be much, much worse.


And Khan the value of both currencies will certainly drop when the referendum starts, but will regain it's value if UK stays. In that case, we would not make much, but, at least, we will not be losing anything.


And Julio, many people do buy Rolexes ( and expensive watches generally) because they hold value. If you want your watch to gain value, you will usually have to wait a long time (usually 10+ years).

Post: #9

Ok Irenicus I thought you wanted to play the Brexit effect short term, if you wait 10+ years then sure. But maybe buying Gold is a better investment.

Post: #10

I think it's always wise to invest in things that hold its value, compared to cash which is subject to inflation.

Regarding Brexit, it looks like the consensus on the referendum is in favor of staying in the EU, looking at betting odds which say there's ~70% chance of staying. The polls leading up are pretty equal and usually in these types of referendums people tend to vote on the safe option (staying).

Also I imagine the market has already corrected itself given that it's a known event that has a possibility of ending either way. So I don't think it'll have huge effects on the euro right away.

Post: #11

Cross posting from the politics thread

It's amazing to me how the gold price today fluctuated pretty wildly based largely around this news. (Killing of MP)

Gold started at around $1290 and shot up this morning to over $1315 with people buying gold as a safe haven while expecting a Brexit. Who knows what will happen to the London Gold market in the event of a Brexit, since supposedly they have been selling their gold to the Chinese like crazy for the last few years, and have been floating the paper market without sufficient bullion in reserve.

As soon as this news hit, the outlook on Brexit became much more bearish and Gold immediately reversed right around noon EST, and drooped down to $1280.

That's like a $60 dollar swing in Gold, going both ways in one day.

I'm sure a lot of people had a call to sell Gold if it went over $1300 as well, but a lot of this price fluctuation is mostly done with machine trading, where computers are buying and selling commodities instantly based on world news like this. A lot of people made a killing today in the London gold market, no pun intended....but It's all very fascinating to me.


I think Gold is always a solid investment (currently $1290/oz), but there definitely seems to be a lot of action on Gold right now from the UK, and many people are rushing into it as a hedge and safe haven should there be some currency fluctuations. Bonds are shit worldwide right now, 10 year bonds in almost every country except US are trading at negative interest rates right now...and we're not far off from 0. The last times bonds were this negative there was a full blown hyper inflation. The best thing you can do with extra cash right now is invest in physical commodities, stock up on food, water, gold, silver, oil, property, guns, ammo and anything else you can get cheap now and hold onto in case of a sharp inflation in the near future.

Post: #12

I recommend looking into buying silver in coin form and holding it. Individual coins have a low enough value that they can be sold to pay much more mundane bills. But, do your own research, I'm just recommending it as something to think about

Post: #13

I doubt your friend knows much about watches if thats what hes planning to do with that budget. I would advise him against it.

Post: #14

OK, I turned all my savings, from Euros into American Dollars like 2 days ago. I would prefer trading Euros for some precious metal, but, that is harder for non US citizens.

Like it was predicted, Euro is losing value (and Pound) compared to the dollar. Palpatine agrees with me, it seems... .

Quote:Soros, in an opinion piece in the Guardian newspaper, said that in the event of a British exit, or Brexit, the pound would fall by at least 15 percent, and possibly more than 20 percent, to below $1.15 from its current level of around $1.46.

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/...y-eu-else/


Also, some suggested CHF, so I might toy with these as well.

In any case, thanks everyone.

Post: #15

Don't buy rare watches or anything collectible like that. While the value of the watches would go up, the markets for rare watches are small and you lose on the ease of convertibility

Just get USD paper notes or open a US based bank account and deposit cash in there. Schwab is pretty good and they have an international service meant just for this.

I'd go long USD and short the eur against the dollar. I don't play in forex however.

Post: #16

14% of the BNP of the EU is contributed by the UK. The value of a currency is linked to the strength of an economy, so the economy of the Eurozone will definitely be damaged and this will weaken the currency.

I don't understand why so many people hate the EU. Europe needs to be united if it wants to compete with China, India or the US. Europeans are very egocentric and only care about themselves. There are only 850 million people in Europe who are divided over 50+ countries. Compare that to China or India, who have over 1 billion people and still stand united.

I don't like the centralized rule of the EU, because it doesn't recognize the differences between European populations and regions, but Europe needs some kind of union if it wants to compete with the rest of the world. There were only two periods in European history where it was strong: During the Roman Empire and European Imperialism.

Post: #17

Better to call the shots yourself and risk not being able to "compete" ... whatever that means

.. than give up your sovereignty. I can't imagine anyone would choose the rat race over being self determined

Come on, Marcus

Post: #18

(06-23-2016 10:02 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Better to call the shots yourself and risk not being able to "compete" ... whatever that means

.. than give up your sovereignty. I can't imagine anyone would choose the rat race over being self determined

Come on, Marcus

I think that's a bit of an over simplification. Fact is there are unions everywhere, The united states as one example. With very few exceptions the whole reason they exist is because the benefits and shared common ground generally always outweigh the costs. Should there be no federal tax in the US, and each state does whatever the fuck it pleases? 50 locally organized, funded, and administered armies instead of 1? Or maybe just a bunch of county sized fiefdoms led by warlords "self determining" their own fate. You're hardly self determined by making yourself more of an island. How's North Korea doing?

Unless you build bridges, tear down walls, make compromises, and engage in give an take you can never fully self-determine. If you go live in the woods yourself, there is a shit ton that just isn't in the cards unless you talk to people, make compromises and play by certain rules whatever country or union your in.

Post: #19

(06-14-2016 07:48 PM)Irenicus Wrote:  As most of you are aware, there is Brexit soon, which will, according to the polls, likely pass.

The betting odds, which I have found are far more accurate in predicting outcomes of political events than any polls, have UK staying in the EU by overwhelming odds (1/9 - 1/6). So I wouldn't worry much about devaluation because they aren't leaving.

Post: #20

^^^ Seadog

What's funny is that you are totally oversimplifying it, not me. North Korea as an example? That's so off the wall it's embarrassing (and apples to oranges, which is the point).

The question in front of us, and Britain, is precisely the question of "Do we let centralized, globalist types make decisions that we have to abide by?" Or do we do these things ourselves and reap the benefits or suffer the consequences? What's the point of having a country if others make decisions for you, or if, by the way, elites are bought into maintaining a position that is good for them but bad for particular nation states?

The microcosm is the same question we've always had here in the USA. Giving up freedom to an enlarging central power is always a bad idea. It can give you a run of good times, but like stock market policy and bubbles, always ends badly.

There's a reason why our Constitution was written limiting central authority and having a small gov't.

With a small central government you can "talk to people, make compromises, and play by rules" --- the point is that YOU have representatives that aren't lifetime pols or play by OTHERS rules that they are self-interested in vs. their own nation.

Post: #21

GBP/JPY down 8% and going. FTSE futures off 7% currently

Post: #22

Anyone know somewhere still posting live currency information? Some sites have stopped reporting or some like XE are just completely offline

Post: #23

(06-23-2016 02:39 PM)Harvey Specter Wrote:  The betting odds, which I have found are far more accurate in predicting outcomes of political events than any polls, have UK staying in the EU by overwhelming odds (1/9 - 1/6). So I wouldn't worry much about devaluation because they aren't leaving.

Oh really?

(06-23-2016 01:45 PM)Seadog Wrote:  Unless you build bridges, tear down walls, make compromises, and engage in give an take you can never fully self-determine. If you go live in the woods yourself, there is a shit ton that just isn't in the cards unless you talk to people, make compromises and play by certain rules whatever country or union your in.

(06-23-2016 06:32 AM)Marcus187 Wrote:  I don't like the centralized rule of the EU, because it doesn't recognize the differences between European populations and regions, but Europe needs some kind of union if it wants to compete with the rest of the world. There were only two periods in European history where it was strong: During the Roman Empire and European Imperialism.

You should read more of that history book! All of European Imperialism was competitive between the different European countries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scramble_for_Africa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game

Does Google need a union with Microsoft to compete with the rest of the world? Get outta here!

Post: #24

(06-24-2016 02:20 AM)NewMeta Wrote:  Anyone know somewhere still posting live currency information? Some sites have stopped reporting or some like XE are just completely offline

https://www.oanda.com/currency/live-exch...es/EURGBP/

Post: #25

(06-23-2016 10:02 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Better to call the shots yourself and risk not being able to "compete" ... whatever that means

.. than give up your sovereignty. I can't imagine anyone would choose the rat race over being self determined

Come on, Marcus

The whole idea of a 'European Union' is not bad, but the implementation is not as it should be. They want to have a centralized 'government' while decentralization is better (member countries can keep their power instead of handing it over to a central government).

The EU is responsible for 30% of the global output and this makes them the most powerful 'group' in the world. Countries like the UK and Germany don't need the EU, but the rest of Europe is better off if they bundle their powers or form a union.