Post: #26

I've been wondering. If everybody is aware of the crisis, then it can't be a surprise crash, right?

Post: #27

Markets in full meltdown mode right now. The flood of negative economic news is really hitting hard. My portfolio is up 2.32% today alone as of this exact moment though.

I have triple inverse shorts on all three major indices, and will buy the same on energy sector as soon as I have some funds clear.

Some tickers that might be of interest to all of you right now:

SDOW
SQQQ
SPXS
YANG
RUSS
ERY
FAZ
TECS

These are all inverse ETFS of various regions/sectors/indices. Stocks alone are going to be a bloodbath.

Post: #28

Looking at NYMT yield: 20%

NCT: yield 15%

NLY: yield 13%

AGNC and TWO are north of 10% also. Am considering significant size in these soon. Possible recession yes, but worth a nibble at these yields. I don't see default/vacancy rates rising like 07'.

Post: #29

(01-15-2016 11:19 AM)thisisright Wrote:  I've been wondering. If everybody is aware of the crisis, then it can't be a surprise crash, right?

Expectations do get "priced in", you're right. Expectation is one factor that drives prices, but there are many others too.

Things can still go down even though most people expect them to. Although not as much as when people are naively optimistic and don't see what's happening, all else being equal.

BTW, differentiate between stock market crash and economic downturn/recession. They're linked, but distinctly different phenomena.

Post: #30

(01-15-2016 01:40 PM)RichieP Wrote:  

(01-15-2016 11:19 AM)thisisright Wrote:  I've been wondering. If everybody is aware of the crisis, then it can't be a surprise crash, right?

Expectations do get "priced in", you're right. Expectation is one factor that drives prices, but there are many others too.

Things can still go down even though most people expect them to. Although not as much as when people are naively optimistic and don't see what's happening, all else being equal.

BTW, differentiate between stock market crash and economic downturn/recession. They're linked, but distinctly different phenomena.

Expectations are usually priced in, yes, but in the case of oil, even the expectations are optimistic right now because no one knows exactly what the outcome of Iran etc. is going to be. Anxiety is high right now on the street, but it's just (as usual) a huge roller coaster of emotions and overreaction.

People keep claiming that Canada is in a recession, which just isn't true. "Technically", there's no recession. At least not yet.

Most think that 2016 will be the year of stabilization of WTI and Brent, leading to moderate growth of the overall economy, but that's just a prediction. Other say 2017-2018. China will rebound fairly quickly. Their government is set up to respond to these sort of crisis' with injections of cash and new regulations, so long-term investors aren't too worried. It's just a short-term overreaction which is typical on the street.

When in doubt, ask Tai Lopez

Post: #31

(01-15-2016 12:43 PM)swuglyfe Wrote:  These are all inverse ETFS of various regions/sectors/indices. Stocks alone are going to be a bloodbath.

*Gold mine dude.

Tons of companies are at ridiculously low valuations right now. Cherry pick some with solid fundamentals, buy at cheap, and go long. That's what we're doing for all of our clients. IB's aren't slowing down on deal buying right now for that reason IMO.

Sure, we hedge, but in general all of the metrics are lighting up right now. In two-three years you'll see books written about this "Company X makes huge profit on oil bets".

I do like ETFs, but I just feel that right now you can profit on this massive overreaction if you have some patience brudda.

Post: #32

(01-15-2016 11:19 AM)thisisright Wrote:  I've been wondering. If everybody is aware of the crisis, then it can't be a surprise crash, right?

The disaster that's coming is the recognition that central bankers and centralization has failed; they're already beginning to overreact. This is a correction that we need to flush out tons of debt. They won't allow it to happen. The only winners in the end will be the self-reliant. That will be harder and harder to do because the "leaders" will make it easier to easier to play their game while you feel like you're winning (when you're losing).

Post: #33

(01-15-2016 12:43 PM)swuglyfe Wrote:  Markets in full meltdown mode right now. The flood of negative economic news is really hitting hard. My portfolio is up 2.32% today alone as of this exact moment though.

I have triple inverse shorts on all three major indices, and will buy the same on energy sector as soon as I have some funds clear.

Some tickers that might be of interest to all of you right now:

SDOW
SQQQ
SPXS
YANG
RUSS
ERY
FAZ
TECS

These are all inverse ETFS of various regions/sectors/indices. Stocks alone are going to be a bloodbath.

Full meltdown mode?!?! You gotta be kidding, you obviously weren't around in 2008 that was a real meltdown (bank runs/near financial apocalypse), this is just a healthy and long overdue correction. Due to CB manipulations valuations are massively over-stretched. Now that the invisible hand of the FED has eased somewhat, markets are just finding their natural equilibrium. Only people panicking now will be over-leveraged retail traders worried about their next margin call.

Post: #34

(01-16-2016 08:20 AM)WeekendCasanova Wrote:  Expectations are usually priced in, yes, but in the case of oil, even the expectations are optimistic right now because no one knows exactly what the outcome of Iran etc. is going to be. Anxiety is high right now on the street, but it's just (as usual) a huge roller coaster of emotions and overreaction.

People keep claiming that Canada is in a recession, which just isn't true. "Technically", there's no recession. At least not yet.

Most think that 2016 will be the year of stabilization of WTI and Brent, leading to moderate growth of the overall economy, but that's just a prediction. Other say 2017-2018. China will rebound fairly quickly.

What you say about oil price makes sense.

When you say China will rebound, what are you referring to exactly? Stocks stabilizing? Many people think their economy is undergoing a major slowdown which causes all sorts of problems for them, and for the rest of the world.

Post: #35

Anybody already short china ETFs?

http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/china-equities/

Post: #36

(01-16-2016 08:20 AM)WeekendCasanova Wrote:  

(01-15-2016 01:40 PM)RichieP Wrote:  

(01-15-2016 11:19 AM)thisisright Wrote:  I've been wondering. If everybody is aware of the crisis, then it can't be a surprise crash, right?

Expectations do get "priced in", you're right. Expectation is one factor that drives prices, but there are many others too.

Things can still go down even though most people expect them to. Although not as much as when people are naively optimistic and don't see what's happening, all else being equal.

BTW, differentiate between stock market crash and economic downturn/recession. They're linked, but distinctly different phenomena.

Expectations are usually priced in, yes, but in the case of oil, even the expectations are optimistic right now because no one knows exactly what the outcome of Iran etc. is going to be. Anxiety is high right now on the street, but it's just (as usual) a huge roller coaster of emotions and overreaction.

People keep claiming that Canada is in a recession, which just isn't true. "Technically", there's no recession. At least not yet.

Most think that 2016 will be the year of stabilization of WTI and Brent, leading to moderate growth of the overall economy, but that's just a prediction. Other say 2017-2018. China will rebound fairly quickly. Their government is set up to respond to these sort of crisis' with injections of cash and new regulations, so long-term investors aren't too worried. It's just a short-term overreaction which is typical on the street.

When in doubt, ask Tai Lopez

People are claiming Canada is in a recession because it posted 2 negative quarters of GDP growth in 2015. Which is the definition of a recession.

it then posted a positive gain in the 3rd quarter. jury is still out on the 4th quarter and any revision on the 3rd quarter.

Post: #37

Will ending the Iranian sanction further depress crude oil prices?

Post: #38

(01-16-2016 09:05 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

(01-16-2016 08:20 AM)WeekendCasanova Wrote:  

(01-15-2016 01:40 PM)RichieP Wrote:  

(01-15-2016 11:19 AM)thisisright Wrote:  I've been wondering. If everybody is aware of the crisis, then it can't be a surprise crash, right?

Expectations do get "priced in", you're right. Expectation is one factor that drives prices, but there are many others too.

Things can still go down even though most people expect them to. Although not as much as when people are naively optimistic and don't see what's happening, all else being equal.

BTW, differentiate between stock market crash and economic downturn/recession. They're linked, but distinctly different phenomena.

Expectations are usually priced in, yes, but in the case of oil, even the expectations are optimistic right now because no one knows exactly what the outcome of Iran etc. is going to be. Anxiety is high right now on the street, but it's just (as usual) a huge roller coaster of emotions and overreaction.

People keep claiming that Canada is in a recession, which just isn't true. "Technically", there's no recession. At least not yet.

Most think that 2016 will be the year of stabilization of WTI and Brent, leading to moderate growth of the overall economy, but that's just a prediction. Other say 2017-2018. China will rebound fairly quickly. Their government is set up to respond to these sort of crisis' with injections of cash and new regulations, so long-term investors aren't too worried. It's just a short-term overreaction which is typical on the street.

When in doubt, ask Tai Lopez

People are claiming Canada is in a recession because it posted 2 negative quarters of GDP growth in 2015. Which is the definition of a recession.

it then posted a positive gain in the 3rd quarter. jury is still out on the 4th quarter and any revision on the 3rd quarter.

Yes, you can say 'technically' it was a recession, but it didn't have the typical indicators of a recession. The jobs weren't in a recession-typical decline. No one internally every considered it a real recession.

Post: #39

(01-16-2016 10:10 AM)RichieP Wrote:  

(01-16-2016 08:20 AM)WeekendCasanova Wrote:  Expectations are usually priced in, yes, but in the case of oil, even the expectations are optimistic right now because no one knows exactly what the outcome of Iran etc. is going to be. Anxiety is high right now on the street, but it's just (as usual) a huge roller coaster of emotions and overreaction.

People keep claiming that Canada is in a recession, which just isn't true. "Technically", there's no recession. At least not yet.

Most think that 2016 will be the year of stabilization of WTI and Brent, leading to moderate growth of the overall economy, but that's just a prediction. Other say 2017-2018. China will rebound fairly quickly.

What you say about oil price makes sense.

When you say China will rebound, what are you referring to exactly? Stocks stabilizing? Many people think their economy is undergoing a major slowdown which causes all sorts of problems for them, and for the rest of the world.

What he means is once markets find value in the SHCOMP and CSI300 they will naturally stabilise. Look at the charts the move higher in late 2014 in china and through 2015 was unsustainable technically or fundamentally.

The oil price drop will feed through once all the previously hedged contracts expire and and start boosting China and India again. Likewise the consumers in the west will also increase consumption with the oil price drops. This is a win/win

Post: #40

A lot of the discussion here about expectations is misguided, as it assumes that these expectations can be fulfilled. Suppose that these expectations are limited by previous expectations that had high use of leverage? It doesn't matter what someone expects if they owe trillions in debt - they have to first get rid of the debt (bankruptcy or payoff) before their expectations of what's next can be fulfilled.

Five years ago the expectations were hyperinflation and everyone rushed into commodities, especially precious metals, some of whom were borrowing with 10+ leverage. Five years later, those people are getting hammered. It simply doesn't matter what's next for these people; they are eating their expectations today from five years ago.

Why no one sees this is beyond me, but this explains why it's possible (not guaranteed though) that oil and other commodities could still go lower in price.

Post: #41

We might have the question the order way around: Why is the price of oil so high? It costs $15 to extract oil from Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. Maybe $20 is a fair price and we don't need these rich middle-east guys.

I think people who are long on oil should be careful with this. The price of oil was not subject to demand/supply in the last decade. If it was, then the price would be $15 + whatever small profit you could survive on.

We might have been in a big bubble and the prices might never get back to the levels where they were...

Post: #42

(01-17-2016 07:37 AM)SunW Wrote:  Five years ago the expectations were hyperinflation and everyone rushed into commodities, especially precious metals, some of whom were borrowing with 10+ leverage. Five years later, those people are getting hammered. It simply doesn't matter what's next for these people; they are eating their expectations today from five years ago.

This is the problem with the industry as a whole. Expectations and investment strategies are planned based [in most cases] on a 12-month outlook. When something goes wrong, like their expectations not panning out, or inability to pay down debt, everything goes haywire.

Post: #43

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-s...35505.html

Quote:Prospect of the Islamic Republic pumping an additional 500,000 barrels a day sends stock markets in Dubai and Saudi Arabia into tailspin
Stock markets across the Middle East collapsed as the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran threatened to unleash a fresh wave of oil onto global markets that are already drowning in excess supply.

Post: #44

(01-17-2016 04:33 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-s...35505.html

Quote:Prospect of the Islamic Republic pumping an additional 500,000 barrels a day sends stock markets in Dubai and Saudi Arabia into tailspin
Stock markets across the Middle East collapsed as the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran threatened to unleash a fresh wave of oil onto global markets that are already drowning in excess supply.

Oil could easily hit $15 a barrel. Anyone with a margin account should look into shorting futures into March, and if you're not too risk happy, place call options on some of the larger oil companies.

Post: #45

Damn, futures show Brent crude has hit $27. LOL big time. This is going to get very painful for some if it remains for even a few months.

Post: #46

I'm expecting oil to go lower still. When recessions hit, there is less demand for finished goods, so factories remain idle and the demand for energy drops. I don't know how much lower it can go at this point, though.

The shale oil producers were initially funded when oil was $100/barrel, but are now deeply in the red. They've been increasing the productivity per rig and focusing on the most productive wells, but it's still a losing battle at these prices. Many are holding emergency funding drives at exorbitant interest rates to keep the game going. They're highly levered and it's only a matter of time before some declare bankruptcy.

That will take a lot of supply off the market at a time when global population is still rising, and many developing nations are starting to industrialize. Sure, Iran may bring more capacity, but the demand for oil is worldwide and all of the low hanging fruit has already been plucked. No other energy source can compete with the energy density, ease of use, and portability of oil. It also doubles as raw materials for the petrochemical and plastic industries.

It will go lower for months to come, but I still think there's a much larger potential upside than downside on this trade. It's one dip I'll be buying.

Post: #47

(01-17-2016 05:28 PM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  

(01-17-2016 04:33 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-s...35505.html

Quote:Prospect of the Islamic Republic pumping an additional 500,000 barrels a day sends stock markets in Dubai and Saudi Arabia into tailspin
Stock markets across the Middle East collapsed as the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran threatened to unleash a fresh wave of oil onto global markets that are already drowning in excess supply.

Oil could easily hit $15 a barrel. Anyone with a margin account should look into shorting futures into March, and if you're not too risk happy, place call options on some of the larger oil companies.

Shawn Driscoll, one of the Oil 'gurus' who predicted that that oil would slide to where it's at now, says a price in the mid-teens isn't out of the question. With Iran's additional supply, and worsening expectations, it's only going to get worse in the near future.

Post: #48

Canadian oil producers are profitable at around $30 a barrel, Saudis can pump all the way to around $10.50 and still be profitable. OPEC is still pumping as if oil was much higher. This can only get worse. Awesome time if you know what you're doing however.

Post: #49

(01-17-2016 07:42 PM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  Canadian oil producers are profitable at around $30 a barrel, Saudis can pump all the way to around $10.50 and still be profitable. OPEC is still pumping as if oil was much higher. This can only get worse. Awesome time if you know what you're doing however.

It's not even beneficial for Saudi Arabia at these prices. The long-term economic impact of these prices is negative for them. That's why most Economists thought they'd stop when the price was higher - it just didn't make sense.

But Saudi Arabia is Saudi Arabia, so there's that. They often do things that don't make sense

Post: #50

Some of those peaks don't have a corresponding crisis, but this spike is enormous when considering the 30 year history. I don't see how this massive spike above 35 means anything other than something big is about to happen. Since 1983, the gold to oil ratio has never risen above 35 until now.

See this for a history: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa...000__3&f=A (in 1970, when gold was $35 an ounce, oil was $3.18 a barrel, meaning that the gold to oil ratio was 11).