Post: #101

I had no idea about Korea.. I'm living here , but I don't speak Korean.

Post: #102

(01-25-2016 02:39 AM)Omad Wrote:  @samsamsam - No sorry, I get prices through my trading platform. Any price you get now are just the last trade price, when the market is open option prices are continually changing.

If you want a specific date and strike let me know and I can give you Fridays close.

Thanks for the offer. I did a bit more research, I think the S&P500 would be more representative of the overall market. But if you wouldn't mind. Have a peek at this link, http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/ind...6162150000

So this is for sep 2016 1,500 SP500 Puts. Is that the price of 34.20 per share or for the lot of 100?

Thanks.

Post: #103

(01-25-2016 06:37 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  Thanks for the offer. I did a bit more research, I think the S&P500 would be more representative of the overall market. But if you wouldn't mind. Have a peek at this link, http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/ind...6162150000

So this is for sep 2016 1,500 SP500 Puts. Is that the price of 34.20 per share or for the lot of 100?

Thanks.

That's per share so $3420.00 to buy that option. After todays pullback that option is a little more expensive now, my platform is showing Bid 36.30 Ask 37.80

If that's too big you can go to the SPY, the Sep 150 put in SPY is trading at Bid/Ask 3.72 - 3.83, so you're looking around $380 per contract.

Post: #104

Thanks Omad!

Post: #105

market update # 3 - 2016

We're still firmly on sell signal.

There is certainly no large amount of stock setups which is one criteria, at least that I use as a technical trader, to indicate a bottom and/or a new uptrend is imminent. It has been a reliable indicator historically. On the contrary there's a complete lack of them.

Right now it seems like we’re going to need more work and possibly more downside for stocks setting up into what I deem constructible buyable patterns.

There was a reversal in the market on Wednesday. That is, the markets went to new lows, then reversed and closed in the upper range for the day. If we can get a 'follow through day' after a reversal, then it could be indicative of a new uptrend. A follow through day is defined as a 1% up move or more that needs to occur within 4 or 5 days of the 'reversal day' Today was the fourth day and it did not qualify as a follow through day.

We still have a distribution dominant tape going back to before december. that needs to change and doesn’t look like it.

In the below chart, notice how the daily volume indicators on the bottom are dominated by red (down day) bars. This is a distribution heavy market. We need to see this pattern stop and reverse to taller gray bars ( accumulation days) in order for a bottom and an uptrend to be a real possibility




My gut feeling is that it’s not a new bear marke but rather a correction with potentially more downside causing, at this point, a decent amount of fear. Perhaps, however, not a enough fear yet to reach the 'capitulation' area of a bottom.

We did take out the low of the head and shoulder’s headline if indeed it is a head and shoulders top on the Russell 2000. The round arrow diagram in the below chart indicates the 'head' of the potential 'head and shoulders pattern' which is a bearish pattern that sometimes signifies market tops:



Another reason there still remains some danger and potential downside, is because volatility hasn’t picked up and achieved a level where historically where you’re near a low.

The fed meets this week and they'll be issuing their moments on Wednesday. This could cause more volatility, post Fed announcement.

For those traders who look for actual technical patterns, I’m not seeing any quality stock setups except for a small amount which is not indicative of a new bull run.

The Fed will probably try to talk the mark tup and drop hints like they’ll ‘switch’ gears if they need to, that is, if the market weakness continues.

If this economic weakness continues, we’ll could very well see another QE (money printing) operation. I don’t expect it to be implemented in this Wednesday's meeting, but they very well may start floating language about it.

Right now, we’ve got a breakdown in commodities, global weakness, Russia’s under pressure, the ruble is weak and the slowdown in China is also a big factor right now. The point is, we could have a big correction without a U.S. recession as there's multiple global factors in place.

Large corrections in the US markets have happened periodically such as the S&P being down 19% in 2011 with the greek crisis, and 1998 also at -19 % with the Asian crisis. In neither one of those years, did a recession occur in the US.

In summary:

* For raising the probability of a bottom, we need to see a ‘follow through’ day or a series of them.
* A follow through alone is not confirmation.
* Risk model is still on sell signal.
* Fed meeting wednesday
* Volatility is likely to rise - and needs to rise to be more confident we’re reaching a bottom.

Post: #106

I thought it could reach the 1920's, and was waiting to short there but it looked so weak today I couldn't help myself and took a half-portion of TZA.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/25/banks-i...y-pretend/

Post: #107

I keep hearing people saying lately that it's impossible to time the markets.

Bullshit.





How stocks are doing over the medium-to-long term is little more than a function of whether or not the Federal Reserve is conducting quantitative easing on any given day.

Post: #108

Interesting take on China's impact on global oil prices:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/wall-...20861.html

Wall Street got the China oil story wrong, and it will make everything that's happening now much worse
Linette Lopez, Business Insider 2 hours 44 minutes ago

The party's just getting started

Teapots love the low price of crude oil because it means they can snap it up on the cheap, and ultimately what they care about is volume. They've just been sitting around capable of handling more product to refine. All they were waiting for was the Chinese government's approval, so they hit the market ready for a $30-a-barrel oil world.

Take away China focused on building up domestic refined production for domestic and export markets. Importing less.

Price could go to $10 per barrel before it goes back to $70... especially as Iraq and Iran ramp up their production and global market shares...

Post: #109

Here's the deal for anyone who wants to bet against China right now. China is making money with commodities being low, not the other way around. If you were saving $500 billion a year, would you be in any rush to have the prices rise? Hell no.

With that extra money, what you do think China will do? China also has been selling USTs while the USD is at one of its highest points in a decade. I get the popularity of betting against China, but it's one trade I'd be careful of. They're saving all kinds of money right now and I'd almost bet they're putting that money somewhere they don't want the rest of us to know about.

Cheaper oil will be even better for China. This isn't a problem for them at all.

Post: #110

SunW - China's big problem as pointed out by people smarter than me (Kyle bass) is the excessive debt in the system and the impact the strong CNY/CNH is having. They have to devalue their currency there is no other way.

Post: #111

(01-25-2016 11:38 PM)HighSpeed_LowDrag Wrote:  I keep hearing people saying lately that it's impossible to time the markets.

Bullshit.





How stocks are doing over the medium-to-long term is little more than a function of whether or not the Federal Reserve is conducting quantitative easing on any given day.

I maintain that nobody can consistently and successfully time the market. People can spot the right signals or just get lucky every now and then, but for consistent timing, you need to always catch the bottom when buying and the top when selling or at least be in the ballpark for both.

There will always be occasionally successful market timers, but then there will always be lottery winners as well.

I tried to time the market in the past, sometimes even successfully, but for now I'm just dollar cost averaging and staying put given that my investments are long term.

If market timing could consistently beat the buy and hold strategy, most actively managed funds would outperform passive index funds. In reality, most of them underperform compared to passive, buy and hold strategies. This is given the fact that active funds that attempt to time the market are managed by some of the smartest investment managers who do it full time for many years.

Having said that, if somebody proves me wrong and I make more money timing the as a result, I'll admit being a bullshitter. No problem with that. Making money is 1000X more important to me than being right.

Specifically, regarding the above charts, it would be great to see them over a longer period of time and understand the story behind them and how it proves that market timing works. People backtest buy and hold strategies over all kinds of time periods and run monte carlo simulations to estimate the range of potential future returns, so I believe it is fair to expect the same level of analytical rigor from market timing proponents as well.

Those who are interested in backtesting, can do it here, for example. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ It takes a few minutes to run a back test or a monte carlo simulation.

Post: #112

What a day

Post: #113

The QE/NIRP-train has no brakes:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/28/news/eco...index.html

Utter chaos on the Nikkei 225. In the span of two hours, it went up 600 points, then lost 800 points, then regained all those 800 points.

This is going to be an interesting few months until the next FOMC meeting in March.

Post: #114

Went full short via TZA around 1930 SPX. Bleeding a little, but still holding all over the weekend. I hope this bitch doesn't go past 1950 and just drops hard.

Post: #115

The long-game is the way to go fellas'.

Post: #116

114 Year S&P analysis Graphs through 2016 with current state projection... may surprise you:

Bear Market? I See a Bull Market for the Next 15-20 Years
http://wealth.kiplinger.com/reader/kipli...5-20-years

Post: #117

..

Post: #118

^Thanks for the graphs. However, please keep in mind that there is always at least one alternate count in Elliott Wave, which shows the opposite direction. Having said that sometimes, you can make good money with Eliott Wave, especially if you identify wave 3 or C.

Post: #119

I have no idea about half of what's going on in this thread but I'm fascinated and learning.

Post: #120

It seems oil prices are killing certain currency, especially Venezuela and Brazil.

Creating an opportunity and arbitrage.

I definitely have no faith in the Venezuelan currency, it's heading towards hyperinflation.

It seems like buying a Brazilian Real ETF can be a safer and less risk exposure, than buying Reals straight up, giving that Brazilian Real has not technically hit rock bottom yet. This is definitely a long term play. Right now is not a good time to buy. But a good time to watch.

I think a ETF currency play seems a better shot right now than the US stock market. The oil ETF are good buys for long term, but this is not a good time to buy yet. Let it build some technicals, before buying.

I am not bullish on the Overall US market. But certain sectors are strong i.e. utilities. I am bearish on the US tech sector, may be due for a cyclical slowdown.

So what do you guys think. What do the RVF expert say?

Post: #121

Weekly Market update # 3


As I posted in my first Weekly Market update on Jan. 11 in this thread:

/thread-52801.html

As far as stock individual trading, I've been on a sell signal since about December 11th (meaning sitting in cash ) Lately, the amount of distribution seems to be picking up.

This is a very dangerous environment to be long in. You don’t know how far a correction or bear market is going to go and we are certainly at least in a correction if not a potential bear market.

Bear in mind, most of my advice applies to investors who trade individual stocks. Those buying mutual funds for the long term are most likely fine holding through periods like this an adding to funds. However, holding individual stocks through periods like this ( let's say you own an average of 5 to 10 stocks in your trading account) can wipe out, for all intents and purposes, your account value.

Case in point: During the bear market correction of the 70s, those who held on to Xerox and other blue chip names ( the Facebooks and Googles of their day) saw anywhere from 14 to 24 years pass before they were even break even again. That's anywhere from over one to two decades of dead money. If the thought of that repulses you as it does me, I'd advise studying how to properly identify corrections, bottoms and new advances, when they start.

During the 2000's, the bluest of the blue chips like Citi Bank and other very well known blue chip 'conservative' stocks were down 90%. They still haven't even come close to recovering their value as we enter 2016.

Even when we bottom, it’s a very volatile period and very difficult to trade, so even if the market does bottom, you shouldn’t just start buying stocks. In fact, there's no way to tell it's bottomed until the next advance has begun and we are off the lows. If you follow this method are you getting the best prices? No. Are you, however, following a much safer, capital preservation type strategy with a much higher degree of certainty that the stock won't collapse again from where you're buying? Yes.

It’s usually safer to buy after the bottoming process has occurred, which can often take months or longer and the market has begun a discernible uptrend.

In December, the Nasdaq was over 6150 and now it’s at 4570. The average stock, so far, is off 25 to 30 percent, and this is why I, as an individual stock trader, go to cash in these periods.

We are undercutting lows from last year on S&P 500:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Egspc+interactive#

On Monday this week, we undercut the recent lows from last year on the Nasdaq chart as well.

There’s too much technical damage and distribution taking place for the market just to start going up from here.

At the very least, it’s going to take a bottoming process and base building to create a new advance of any appreciable return.

In addition to the ECRI weekly leading index forecasting tough economic times as I alluded to in both of my previous Market Updates in this thread, we’re seeing a low in the 10 year treasury yield that never portends well for the stock market.

In addition to these bad omens, we have the Fed mismanagement. Instead of the Fed initiating tightening when we had 4 to 5 % GDP growth, which would have been the best time to begin it, they waited to begin tightening once the economy was on the slowdown, making it worse. No surprise there, they’ve been making bad choices virtually since their inception.

We had a "Follow Through Day" last week but it was quickly crushed on subsequent trading days by heavy distribution. A Follow Through Day (FTD) is a trading day where the market is up significantly and on higher trading volume than the day before. You need Follow Through Days in rapid succession, over the course of one to two weeks typically, to achieve a new uptrend.

In summary:

1. Every bull trend starts with FTD but not every FTD starts a new bull trend.
2 A FTD alone is not confirmation, it is simply needed to begin a confirmation that a new uptrend may be happening.
3. Distribution ( down days on heavier trading volume than the day before) rears its head AGAIN.

Going from a macro viewpoint to a micro viewpoint, by looking at some individual names, many so called 'blue chip' and large cap stocks have been getting hammered.

Examples of these bad actors:

*AMZN fell apart on earnings.
* Face Book broke out to new highs on earnings but quickly corrected to the downside.
* Linked In (LNKD) dropped from over 200 a few days ago, to around 110 now. Absolutely getting crushed.

I could go on with many other examples. The hits keep coming.

Cash is king now. It allows the stock trader to preserve not only his financial capital, but also his psychological capital. The trader who stays invested through times like this, often gets so browbeat and frightened, that when a new uptrend actually does start to occur, he's too scared to pull the trigger on stocks that are breaking out.

New industry leaders will emerge once this correction is over and the new upturn begins. Stocks you’ve never heard of will be the next wave of great winners.

The time for this to occur, I believe, is still down the road.

Post: #122

How does a novice take advantage of the low oil prices?

Post: #123

This market is looking pretty weak at the moment, selling every rally is working well, it would be nice if we actually got a decent rally for a few days to be able to sell more! I got some off today.


@Silver_Tube, are you asking asking what to use to trade oil or are you looking for a direction to play it?

Post: #124

Another day of ridiculousness on the markets today.

The second the S&P 500 touches a key support level of 1812 to the downside, and oil touches a 12-year low of just over $26, the WSJ just happens to release a story that the UAE's oil minister claims that OPEC is ready to coordinate oil production cutbacks with non-OPEC nations, causing SPX to come up over 32 points and WTI to gain over $1 in the span of 15 minutes. As if we haven't heard that bullshit before.

Anyone wanting to daytrade right now could do a lot worse than holding off in the morning of a large-scale selloff and going long on SPX (long S&P500 ETF) for the noon-time ramp that we keep seeing over and over and over again.

The elites are so desperate that they're not even bothering to hide market manipulation anymore.

Post: #125

(02-11-2016 04:25 PM)HighSpeed_LowDrag Wrote:  Another day of ridiculousness on the markets today.

The second the S&P 500 touches a key support level of 1812 to the downside, and oil touches a 12-year low of just over $26, the WSJ just happens to release a story that the UAE's oil minister claims that OPEC is ready to coordinate oil production cutbacks with non-OPEC nations, causing SPX to come up over 32 points and WTI to gain over $1 in the span of 15 minutes. As if we haven't heard that bullshit before.

Anyone wanting to daytrade right now could do a lot worse than holding off in the morning of a large-scale selloff and going long on SPX (long S&P500 ETF) for the noon-time ramp that we keep seeing over and over and over again.

The elites are so desperate that they're not even bothering to hide market manipulation anymore.

It's all the electronic trading, I was just reading an article about that on how these new algorithms are being trained to buy/sell on news headlines they are processing in real time. It's fucking up the whole market and basically turning the market over to bots, and taking out the critical thinking of the old school traders.

People in the market for many years have been replaced by an algorithm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-08...-algorithm

"Two years later, Bloomberg caught up to the fate of what it calls Wall Street's "dying breed", the once proud FX traders who over the past two years have become an endangered species between losing their jobs to Virtu's algos, and to countless FX rigging scandals which revealed that the world's biggest market was nothing but one grand conspiracy in which a handful of banks schemed illegally in so-called chat rooms. "

It's like the algos are hooked to Tinder
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10...ked-tinder