Post: #1

Last debate/bloodbath is done. Obvious news is "Marcomentum" and the Christie Endorsement. There will probably be some surprises this weekend. Expect a wave of negative press from all sides to hit Trump like a Tsunami. But for the most part, I think a large group of voters in the Super Tuesday states are already set in their choice.

There are 624 delegates available for grabs on Super Tuesday. Pundits here and here say that Trump only needs to win about 250 delegates on the day to maintain his current "pace" to the magic 1,237 needed to win the nomination. I don't think it's unreasonable to think Trump can beat that number. But by how much? We'll see.

This article does a good job of breaking down the individual states, the way the delegates are doled out, and how they work for Super Tuesday.

   

My prediction: Trump clears 300 delegates, and gets close to 350. A solid haul that should give him huge momentum going the rest of the way forward.

Cruz will win Texas, but not over 50%, so Trump will get some of those delegates.

Rubio will probably win a state or two, so expect the media to declare him having huge momentum heading into Florida and Ohio on the 15th.

Kasich will do nothing, but will plan on sticking around until Ohio on the 15th (much to the chagrin of Rubio).

Carson will drop out after Tuesday, but that matters to no one. He might say a few nasty things about Cruz on the way out though.

Post: #2

After this last debate, I expect him to win Texas too. Which means Cruz dropping out, and even if the weasel endorses Rubio in order to save the establishment it will still mean more of an advantage for Trump from that point onwards.

Post: #3

A big landslide. 400-450 candidates.

/thread-48360-page-618.html

"Ultimately this debate helped Trump. The attacks on him were non-stop and desperate. Many of the debate questions were asking Cruz and Rubio "what they thought of Trump," just so they can get in cheap-shots on him.

People see right through this bullshit, and it made Cruz and Rubio look very bad. Who cares if they "got one over Trump" when the entire debate was rigged?

- Bullshit screaming audience that drowned out Trump every time he tried to talk
- Retarded fake cheering for Rubio that was so loud most of the major media stations today aren't even replaying his clips because it looks ridiculous
- Non-stop lies and accusations thrown at Trump that are countered with 2 seconds of googling
- Very little policy presented, mostly high-school bickering while Trump tried to get his points across

Anyone with half a brain sees right through this, and understand that 99% of men would have folded under such intense circumstances. Trump's survival through the gauntlet shows his strength and character, and makes Rubio and Cruz look like tryhard bullies. Remember, women are turned off by tryhards.

As a result of this debate, Trump is going to sweep Super Tuesday."

Post: #4

Too bad we can't adjust our poll votes now that Governor Christie came out with an unexpected yet enthusiastic main stream Conservative Elite GOP endorsement of Mr. Trump - I feel 500+ delegates is now quite likely.

Samseau in recognition of your massive contribution to RVF and American Patriots everywhere in creating the "Trump for President" thread perhaps you can do the honors and begin a "President Trump" thread ahead of the rush!

Props.

Post: #5

Trump's poll numbers haven't budged since the debate.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/f...6/type/day

Post: #6

(02-27-2016 08:55 AM)Samseau Wrote:  Trump's poll numbers haven't budged since the debate.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/f...6/type/day

How come Carson is still at 10% nationally? If he's getting around 5% in the most recent contests, then surely have to be some states voting big for him to balance it out.

Post: #7

I'm predicting between 350-400 for Trump on Tuesday, predicated on him finishing a close second to Cruz in Texas.

The real deciding point will be March 15 when four winner-take-all states are up for grabs (Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and Florida.) The last two are key, and will decide whether Trump wins outright or has to face a brokered convention.

Post: #8

if he takes Texas then 600+ but I'll guess 450
edit ok 600 won't happen but 500+ is realistic

Post: #9

I've just done some quick math with very conservative estimates. In all states where polls are available, I gave Trump the lowest score he achieved in any of the polls. I then gave Rubio/Cruz/Carson/Kasich their best scores. I think that is the absolute worst case scenario. This is what it looks like; Poll numbers are first, delegates in brackets.

Virginia
Trump 38 (19)
Rubio 27 (14)
Cruz 22 (11)
Kasich 8 (4)
Carson 7 (3)

Texas
Cruz 42 (73)
Rubio 25 (44)
Trump 23 (37)
Kasich 6
Carson 4

Georgia
Trump 30 (29)
Cruz 29 (28)
Rubio 23 (22)
Carson 9
Kasich 9

Massachusets
Trump 46 (18)
Rubio 22 (9)
Kasich 21 (9)
Cruz 11 (4)
Carson 6 (2)

Oklahoma
Trump 32 (16)
Cruz 28 (14)
Rubio 24 (12)
Carson 7
Kasich 7

Alabama
Trump 36 (30)
Rubio 25 (20)
Cruz 18
Carson 12
Kasich 9

Tennessee
Trump 40 (28)
Cruz 24 (16)
Rubio 21 (14)
Carson 9
Kasich 6

Arkansas
Cruz 30 (14)
Rubio 26 (12)
Trump 24 (11)
Carson 13 (3)
Kasich 6

Minnessota
Rubio 26 (13)
Cruz 24 (12)
Trump 20 (9)
Carson 11 (4)

States without recent polls; Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota and Alaska. A total of 122 delegates. I will be very conservative here as well and give Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 32, Carson 13, Kasich 13

FINAL NUMBERS
Trump - 11 states. 313 delegates
Cruz - 4 states 223 delegates
Rubio - 2 states 210 delegates
Kasich - 28 delegates
Carson - 27 delegates

Those numbers include the 4 states that have already voted. My math might be a little off, but I think the above is what we will end up with in the worst possible scenario (Although I don't have Cruz hitting 50% at Texas so it could be worse if that were to happen)

Because I was extremely negative in my analysis, I'll predict that by Wednesday, delegate counts will be as follows:

Trump 370
Cruz 200
Rubio 190
Kasich 20
Carson 17

Post: #10

I think we will then see Rubio and Cruz put huge pressure on each other to drop out before March 8 when 4 states vote or March 15 when 6 states vote.

Post: #11

(02-29-2016 02:47 AM)big poppa Wrote:  I've just done some quick math with very conservative estimates. In all states where polls are available, I gave Trump the lowest score he achieved in any of the polls. I then gave Rubio/Cruz/Carson/Kasich their best scores. I think that is the absolute worst case scenario. This is what it looks like; Poll numbers are first, delegates in brackets.

Virginia
Trump 38 (19)
Rubio 27 (14)
Cruz 22 (11)
Kasich 8 (4)
Carson 7 (3)

Texas
Cruz 42 (73)
Rubio 25 (44)
Trump 23 (37)
Kasich 6
Carson 4

Georgia
Trump 30 (29)
Cruz 29 (28)
Rubio 23 (22)
Carson 9
Kasich 9

Massachusets
Trump 46 (18)
Rubio 22 (9)
Kasich 21 (9)
Cruz 11 (4)
Carson 6 (2)

Oklahoma
Trump 32 (16)
Cruz 28 (14)
Rubio 24 (12)
Carson 7
Kasich 7

Alabama
Trump 36 (30)
Rubio 25 (20)
Cruz 18
Carson 12
Kasich 9

Tennessee
Trump 40 (28)
Cruz 24 (16)
Rubio 21 (14)
Carson 9
Kasich 6

Arkansas
Cruz 30 (14)
Rubio 26 (12)
Trump 24 (11)
Carson 13 (3)
Kasich 6

Minnessota
Rubio 26 (13)
Cruz 24 (12)
Trump 20 (9)
Carson 11 (4)

States without recent polls; Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota and Alaska. A total of 122 delegates. I will be very conservative here as well and give Trump 32, Cruz 32, Rubio 32, Carson 13, Kasich 13

FINAL NUMBERS
Trump - 11 states. 313 delegates
Cruz - 4 states 223 delegates
Rubio - 2 states 210 delegates
Kasich - 28 delegates
Carson - 27 delegates

Those numbers include the 4 states that have already voted. My math might be a little off, but I think the above is what we will end up with in the worst possible scenario (Although I don't have Cruz hitting 50% at Texas so it could be worse if that were to happen)

Because I was extremely negative in my analysis, I'll predict that by Wednesday, delegate counts will be as follows:

Trump 370
Cruz 200
Rubio 190
Kasich 20
Carson 17

Good worst case analysis now lets hope for a best case Trump groundswell!

Post: #12

Current listing is

Trump::285
Cruz: . 161
Rubio: 87

Many of the delagates are at large, so not all are assigned based on primary results. Ultimately. Trump and Cruz will split these, but the tally isn't known. Given the smaller numbers allocsted, the final results are in line with the OPs conservative estimate.

Looking good for Trump so far!

Post: #13

285 is not Super Tuesday, it's the cumulative total including everything from Iowa to now. Super Tuesday alone the split is (as of this writing) 205/144/71 Trump Cruz Rubio. A rather worse showing than we expected.

Edit: Projected final delegates won on Super Tuesday is going to be roughly 265 Trump vs 240 Cruz.

Post: #14

That's not good enough if Trump is only 25 delegates ahead.

He needs to do better; Grade C+

Post: #15

Cruz did better than any of us expected, we failed to estimate the "Christian" vote which is probably one of the easiest to dupe voter block in the nation. But hey, worst case scenario is Trump is forced to give Cruz the VP ticket to get those delegates and secure the nomination.

Post: #16

Trump definitely underperformed, but not by a lot (I think expectations for him were a little too high).

The good news is that he underperformed to Cruz, and NOT to Rubio. If Rubio had won a strong second instead of Cruz, there would be a renewed burst of "Marcomentum".

Cruz winning keeps him in the race, but his path forward is way crappier. It hopefully renews the battle between the Cruz and Rubio camps.

If I assigned a grade to last night for Trump, he gets somewhere between B and B+.

Post: #17

The sentiment with the Christian block seems to be that Trump is, as they put it, a deceiver.

Cruz, while not necessarily more honest, is at least not some cartoon supervillian in disguise.

Bernie et al are totally off the radar.

Post: #18

(03-03-2016 09:22 AM)storm Wrote:  The sentiment with the Christian block seems to be that Trump is, as they put it, a deceiver.

Cruz, while not necessarily more honest, is at least not some cartoon supervillian in disguise.

Bernie et al are totally off the radar.

Trump wears his sins on his sleeve yet Cruz who is caught lying constantly is the Christian one.

Guess none of these "Christians" ever read the parable of the publican and pharisee.

Post: #19

Texas is such a big delegate haul that winning it is as good as winning three or four other states.
Good thing is Trump exceeded his delegate target.
Also, grassroot voters don't know much and don't care about delegate count. They only know that Trump won 7 states and Cruz only 3. Winner aura is all over him the people's mind. Big momentum for Trump.