Post: #1

I think the modern service economy and creative industry in general has been a lot of hot air for the last ten years or even more.


This actually could help us and our goals for obvious reasons, so I'm praying things go south for the Bay Area.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-18...bout-burst


https://www.theguardian.com/business/201...investment



I've always found it hilarious and obnoxious that liberals and libertarians praise modern immigration policy for giving us Steve Jobs, as if society really needs apple products.

Post: #2

Real question is, what's the next bubble that will inflate?

Post: #3

ZeroHedge breaks some good info from time to time that can affect markets in the short term, but keep in mind they have been bearish throughout one of the best bull markets in history. It's also filled with gold bugs who cry manipulation the second they start losing value on it without understanding the fundamentals. Not saying Snapchat won't fail, but people said the same things re: monetizing their base when Facebook broke on to the scene. I think Snapchat's IPO was poorly timed and could be very volatile until they figure things out but we will have much better tech IPO's coming in the next couple years.

Post: #4

Steve Jobs was born in the US, what are you talking about, no one has ever claimed that other than maybe some bullshit tumblr blogger. Also if you base your investing decisions off what people need vs what they want, you should probably stick to index funds. Praying that people trying to escape the corporate rat race lose is an odd thing to do. I hope America continues to be a land of opportunity and Trump can find ways to help out the small businessman, even if they are in the tech industry.

Post: #5

(03-19-2017 02:43 PM)Repo Wrote:  Steve Jobs was born in the US, what are you talking about, no one has ever claimed that other than maybe some bullshit tumblr blogger. Also if you base your investing decisions off what people need vs what they want, you should probably stick to index funds. Praying that people trying to escape the corporate rat race lose is an odd thing to do. I hope America continues to be a land of opportunity and Trump can find ways to help out the small businessman, even if they are in the tech industry.

His father wasn't and some people do say this as an excuse for modern immigration policy

Post: #6

(03-19-2017 01:53 PM)Razor Beast Wrote:  ZeroHedge breaks some good info from time to time that can affect markets in the short term, but keep in mind they have been bearish throughout one of the best bull markets in history. It's also filled with gold bugs who cry manipulation the second they start losing value on it without understanding the fundamentals. Not saying Snapchat won't fail, but people said the same things re: monetizing their base when Facebook broke on to the scene. I think Snapchat's IPO was poorly timed and could be very volatile until they figure things out but we will have much better tech IPO's coming in the next couple years.

I agree, it will be interesting what happens with Silicon Valley. People just need to know they're making actual profits, not marketing fluff.

Post: #7

(03-19-2017 02:43 PM)Repo Wrote:  Steve Jobs was born in the US, what are you talking about, no one has ever claimed that other than maybe some bullshit tumblr blogger. Also if you base your investing decisions off what people need vs what they want, you should probably stick to index funds. Praying that people trying to escape the corporate rat race lose is an odd thing to do. I hope America continues to be a land of opportunity and Trump can find ways to help out the small businessman, even if they are in the tech industry.

The tech industry is in the same boat as the modern entertainment industry. We are no longer seeing more gains than losses benefiting society as a whole. I hope Trump causes a credit crunch with higher interest rates and takes punitive action against Silicon Valley,Hollywood and Wall Street with all the hanky panky that they got a free pass doing so beforehand.


Steve Bannon needs to be heavily involved with these reforms.

Post: #8

"The tech industry is in the same boat as the modern entertainment industry. We are no longer seeing more gains than losses benefiting society as a whole. "

Is this something you just feel or what calculations did you do to arrive at this statement? The tech industry is driving enormous changes in all kinds of industries, though sometimes these changes are behind the scenes.

Post: #9

Have lived in the Bay Area since I was a kid. We've now experienced 3 massive booms since 2000 (1998-2000, 2005-2007 & 2014-now), each one creating a wildly over-inflated real estate market, overnight millionaires, overburdened infrastructure + insane traffic. This is getting to be a tiring and difficult place to live, not just for the cost of living, but the simple ability to drive to a beach or compete for an apartment in a ghetto neighborhood.

One only has to read-up on the history of San Francisco, to see that from its very inception, it was a city founded on Gold Rushes. Who made the real money back in 1849, the miners? Nope, it was the entrepreneurs that sold them shovels and Levi jeans. Or as Mark Twain was once quoted, "A gold mine is just a hole in the ground with a fool at the bottom, and a liar at the top".

The end result of each of the last two booms has been a massive popping of an over-hyped bubble, and said overnight, baby-faced millionaires often becoming penniless and moving back into their parents basements back in the Mid West. The real estate market, as one indicator, has become almost laughably divorced from economic reality and the earning power of the majority of the Bay Area's residents. The first tech boom was centered around buying and selling on the internet as a new platform. The newest inception of the tech bubble, has the same non-original business ideas and hubris, but now using the smartphone as the platform instead of the personal computer. The VC money is drying up and the boom will soon end- just like the other Gold Rushes before it. Just my two cents...

Post: #10

(03-20-2017 01:22 PM)Don Pelon Wrote:  Have lived in the Bay Area since I was a kid. We've now experienced 3 massive booms since 2000 (1998-2000, 2005-2007 & 2014-now), each one creating a wildly over-inflated real estate market, overnight millionaires, overburdened infrastructure + insane traffic. This is getting to be a tiring and difficult place to live, not just for the cost of living, but the simple ability to drive to a beach or compete for an apartment in a ghetto neighborhood.

One only has to read-up on the history of San Francisco, to see that from its very inception, it was a city founded on Gold Rushes. Who made the real money back in 1849, the miners? Nope, it was the entrepreneurs that sold them shovels and Levi jeans. Or as Mark Twain was once quoted, "A gold mine is just a hole in the ground with a fool at the bottom, and a liar at the top".

The end result of each of the last two booms has been a massive popping of an over-hyped bubble, and said overnight, baby-faced millionaires often becoming penniless and moving back into their parents basements back in the Mid West. The real estate market, as one indicator, has become almost laughably divorced from economic reality and the earning power of the majority of the Bay Area's residents. The first tech boom was centered around buying and selling on the internet as a new platform. The newest inception of the tech bubble, has the same non-original business ideas and hubris, but now using the smartphone as the platform instead of the personal computer. The VC money is drying up and the boom will soon end- just like the other Gold Rushes before it. Just my two cents...

The slow death of brick and mortar retail is actually solid proof that we are trending toward a smartphone and web based economy. Don't get me wrong, there have been some tech IPO's that so poorly run it's laughable but there are also some really really good companies that will definitely be industry disruptors.

Tech will only grow from here, and the market will continue to punish the non-performers in dying industries that can't adapt or cannot use technology to fuel future growth.

There is plenty of untapped growth potential through putting cutting edge innovation to use across all industries.

Post: #11

(03-20-2017 10:51 AM)Repo Wrote:  "The tech industry is in the same boat as the modern entertainment industry. We are no longer seeing more gains than losses benefiting society as a whole. "

Is this something you just feel or what calculations did you do to arrive at this statement? The tech industry is driving enormous changes in all kinds of industries, though sometimes these changes are behind the scenes.

Great point. I think that comment embodies the residual lingering bearishness created in the wake of the financial crisis that shell shocked so many investors. The tech industry is poised to turn the world on its head - in some ways this is good and in some ways it's bad. Good because it will unlock efficiencies and productivity gains (from the company side) never thought possible but at the same time may further cut corporate headcounts, but may not necessarily lower wages further.

Post: #12

(03-20-2017 02:46 PM)Razor Beast Wrote:  

(03-20-2017 01:22 PM)Don Pelon Wrote:  Have lived in the Bay Area since I was a kid. We've now experienced 3 massive booms since 2000 (1998-2000, 2005-2007 & 2014-now), each one creating a wildly over-inflated real estate market, overnight millionaires, overburdened infrastructure + insane traffic. This is getting to be a tiring and difficult place to live, not just for the cost of living, but the simple ability to drive to a beach or compete for an apartment in a ghetto neighborhood.

One only has to read-up on the history of San Francisco, to see that from its very inception, it was a city founded on Gold Rushes. Who made the real money back in 1849, the miners? Nope, it was the entrepreneurs that sold them shovels and Levi jeans. Or as Mark Twain was once quoted, "A gold mine is just a hole in the ground with a fool at the bottom, and a liar at the top".

The end result of each of the last two booms has been a massive popping of an over-hyped bubble, and said overnight, baby-faced millionaires often becoming penniless and moving back into their parents basements back in the Mid West. The real estate market, as one indicator, has become almost laughably divorced from economic reality and the earning power of the majority of the Bay Area's residents. The first tech boom was centered around buying and selling on the internet as a new platform. The newest inception of the tech bubble, has the same non-original business ideas and hubris, but now using the smartphone as the platform instead of the personal computer. The VC money is drying up and the boom will soon end- just like the other Gold Rushes before it. Just my two cents...

The slow death of brick and mortar retail is actually solid proof that we are trending toward a smartphone and web based economy. Don't get me wrong, there have been some tech IPO's that so poorly run it's laughable but there are also some really really good companies that will definitely be industry disruptors.

Tech will only grow from here, and the market will continue to punish the non-performers in dying industries that can't adapt or cannot use technology to fuel future growth.

There is plenty of untapped growth potential through putting cutting edge innovation to use across all industries.

How so? Brick and Mortor in the right situation is doing better than ever. Bad stores, with bad locations are getting killed. But bad stores are just that and won't be saved with the move to digital. Going digital isn't going to save shitty places like Sears which sell crap and have crappy locations. But stores like J.Crew, Nike, or Zara will continue to expand stores and offer unique in-store experiences that complement online business.

The only people getting killed are those in Commercial Real Estate as stores no longer need big space to operate. They can have boutiques and showrooms to just engage with customers while the purchases take place online.

During the boom times of the late 80s too many shopping malls were built. America has a surplus of retail properties which dilutes the picture of brick and mortar overall.

Post: #13

(03-19-2017 01:26 PM)Phoenix Wrote:  Real question is, what's the next bubble that will inflate?

The last time the "bubble" shifted to real estate as money fled the tech sector. I hope that's not on the horizon again

Post: #14

Agree with kosko. We are seeing the death of large "anchor" stores across malls all over the US. Smaller specialized stores are where the profit is at, which is actually great for the small businessman. The internet has replaced/is replacing broad browsing based shopping, which is what the anchor stores were best at. Look at the Macys, JCPennys, etc closing all over. Malls are replacing them with smaller stores, and many are doing just fine. And marketing, logistics, and especially analytics driven by the tech industry are having a huge impact. If OP doesn't consider retail "beneficial" to society or whatever tgat means, read up on the huge advances the tech industry is bringing to the medical fields, and how analytics are replacing much of what doctors do more accurately than humans. If i could do it over, predictive modeling would be a very exciting field.

Post: #15

The simple explanation for the pull-back in the SV/SF real estate market is that China recently cracked down on capital expatriation. That market (much like the markets in LA and Toronto) was overheated by Chinese money. But now China has severely restricted capital outflows. Tech is slowing, but I don't think there's going to be a major crash like the dot com crash. Still wouldn't want to live in SV/SF though. It's a terrible rat race and the quality of life is poor, even for those making good money.