Post: #1

Hi,

I was just wondering if any of you guys took advanced of crisis situations to make a profit on the stock market.

For example the Fukushima disaster comes to mind - below is the stock chart for Tepco (the company that owns the Fukushima power plant).

The drop in the stock market obviously indicates the Fukushima accident.

I'm just curious if that could be a decent way to make some $$$.

I know that some people made quite good money by betting on Trump's win in the election - that's definitely cool, it's a bit different though. What I'm primarily interested is if it makes sense to immediately invest in the stock market if there's a crisis situation. E.g. if a war starts in North Korea, would it makes sense to invest in the stock market? Or it could be something else, basically any event that scares & unsettles people and makes them act irrationally.

Post: #2

Timing timing timing.

I would stick to massive big name down turns like the 2008 stock crash. You can get in on inverse etfs or outright shorting and make some quick profit, but on the day to day it's very difficult to time.

I pulled $600 when China was having issues with its stock market playing with an inverse chinese etf. It's a hard gamble to time right.

Post: #3

It's always a good time to buy when there is blood in the streets. I believe a Rothschild said something to that effect.

Post: #4

You'd probably be interested in Doug Caseys stuff:

https://www.caseyresearch.com/products/crisis-investing

Post: #5

Warren Buffet said that a good time to buy is when there is blood in the streets

Post: #6

Calm down Bobby Axelrod.

Post: #7

I buy cheap Put options on the SPY as insurance for a stock market collapse.

Not quite sure what you're asking about... Whether it's a good idea to buy stocks that have collapsed due to crisis? Whether it's moral to?

Does the crisis have to be an external humanitarian one? Or is a regular operating/financial crisis what your interested in...

Post: #8

I want to ask you one thing:
When did the fukushima nuclear explosion happen, where do you locate that date on your illustrations and Do you see a cause/effect correlation to it ?

If you answer "Yes" then you won, you won't be able to predict every shit that will happen by reading financial news or you'll only make cat shit money.
You need to have a bigger view or an insider that will sell you intels before they go public...

Example: 2009 or so BMW was in deep shit due to the lack of innovation (17euros/Stock), then they released the new serie 5 with some cool shit in it, the stock took ~10/15 euros in less than a year (33euros) after this so if you'd bought some you could have made some money but how much ?

The only thing you need to know to make money in anything is that your one and only job is to be able to interpret every externals realities (Hard Facts) to navigate safely in this disinformation era, you need to keep your people connected enough to reality to be effective, but not so connected that they are demotivated and demoralized. Gervais Principle

Quote:Life has no feelings, no conscience or consciousness and gives no fucks about shit.

Post: #9

One thing you can do is sell covered calls. This is particularly good to do when markets are jumpy because the jumpiness means volatility increases and you get paid more to write options when volatility is higher.

Post: #10

(04-22-2017 10:04 PM)blck Wrote:  I want to ask you one thing:
When did the fukushima nuclear explosion happen, where do you locate that date on your illustrations and Do you see a cause/effect correlation to it ?

If you answer "Yes" then you won, you won't be able to predict every shit that will happen by reading financial news or you'll only make cat shit money.
You need to have a bigger view or an insider that will sell you intels before they go public...

Example: 2009 or so BMW was in deep shit due to the lack of innovation (17euros/Stock), then they released the new serie 5 with some cool shit in it, the stock took ~10/15 euros in less than a year (33euros) after this so if you'd bought some you could have made some money but how much ?

The only thing you need to know to make money in anything is that your one and only job is to be able to interpret every externals realities (Hard Facts) to navigate safely in this disinformation era, you need to keep your people connected enough to reality to be effective, but not so connected that they are demotivated and demoralized. Gervais Principle

Quote:Life has no feelings, no conscience or consciousness and gives no fucks about shit.

Well yeah the disaster was March 2011, on the graph you see a small dip around that time, then the stocks recovered a bit, and then a very steep decline around June/July when it became apparent that the damage on the power plant was substantial, radioactivity was leaking, and TEPCO was doing a very bad job managing the accident. So the nosedive in the stock marke is obviously due to the accident.

From late 2011 to today the stocks improved somewhat, but not really that much, so the profit wouldn't have been that great.

But yeah, insider info is definitely best - great if you can get it, sure.

I was just curious if people have some experience with this type of investing.

Also Venezuela - not really very familiar with what`s going on there but seems to be pretty crazy. There seems to be definitely "blood on the streets" - wouldn't there be some opportunities for investing?

Post: #11

The key is to think unconventionally and figure out what companies or stocks are affected by geopolitical events or natural disasters. With Fukushima, most of the drop was immediately after the accident and people didn't know how bad it was or whether TEPCO would even be solvent. I remember another company, that produced seismic instruments, sky rocketed a few days after. That's the kind of things one needs to identify right after an event.

I made some money after the post-Brexit hysteria on bank stocks.

I am writing this post on April 23, the day of the French elections. If Le Pen and Melenchon, the socialist, are the top two, the European market will drop maybe 2 to 4 percent tomorrow. Which stocks might actually benefit from this election result, or at the least be minimally impacted? That's what needs to be figured out before hand.

If we go to war with North Korea, are there any publicly traded South Korean construction companies? Because their business would be booming after the dust clears.

Post: #12

(04-23-2017 10:28 AM)Kissinger2014 Wrote:  The key is to think unconventionally and figure out what companies or stocks are affected by geopolitical events or natural disasters. With Fukushima, most of the drop was immediately after the accident and people didn't know how bad it was or whether TEPCO would even be solvent. I remember another company, that produced seismic instruments, sky rocketed a few days after. That's the kind of things one needs to identify right after an event.

I made some money after the post-Brexit hysteria on bank stocks.

I am writing this post on April 23, the day of the French elections. If Le Pen and Melenchon, the socialist, are the top two, the European market will drop maybe 2 to 4 percent tomorrow. Which stocks might actually benefit from this election result, or at the least be minimally impacted? That's what needs to be figured out before hand.

If we go to war with North Korea, are there any publicly traded South Korean construction companies? Because their business would be booming after the dust clears.

Buy Calls/Puts on VIX is the best short term high leverage play for market volatility.

Post: #13

Forex is even more sensitive to crisis than the stock market. The last great opportunity was Brexit when the British pound crashed all night. I dipped my toe in that one. You have to look at the news and be quick at recognizing opportunities, like when the Turkish lira crashed during the coup attempt. Also, the Mexican peso way overreacted to the Trump election, and then went back up again.

Post: #14

Hard to do consistently, but the market does tend to overreact. I made a a good % profit on S&W stock bought after the Newtown shooting. I was too poor/risk averse at the time to make real money though.