Post: #101

(10-06-2017 07:30 AM)ProGambler Wrote:  Lions ML (4/5, -125, 1.8) my sunday best play

It isn't worthwhile for me to track Disco_Volante. For newbies who like degenerate losing, there are sports forums where people post pick and track records. Parlays are needlessly risky, and do not allow you to shop lines across different books.

On that note, a casual follower of ProGambler would be 1-1, a net loss of vigorish on one bet. But a shopper who got TB +5 would be 1-0-1, net +1 unit. ProGambler himself could have grabbed an early +5.5 and would be 2-0, +2 units. To make money at this, you need lots of accounts, and lots of time to shop the numbers. If you play steam (quickly moving lines), then they might ban you.

If you can't get a good Detroit Lions moneyline, you could just take them -2.5. I'm guessing this is an anti-public play, since Cam Newton looked good last week, and Detroit is the slightly worse team, but has home field advantage.

Post: #102

First off hats off to ProGambler, he's the shit.
The thing that people get wrong on Parlays is when you bet more than 5% of you're bankroll.
REMEMBER: It's a lottery ticket don't bet 40 with a bankroll of 200.
I used some picks last week from Disco_Volante & some of my picks as well(still lost).
For those bashing Parlays I suggest reading Antifragile by Taleb.
Remember kids there's no such thing as a "safe bet".
Keep doing you're things guys!
The last two weeks I've been with the Jets, time to go the other way. Browns+1.5

Post: #103

It's hard enough to win 1 game never mind 2 or more. Parlays they say are suckers bets. The book needs to win once, you have to win all the games on your parlay. Correlated parlays are a better choice. good luck getting this parlay accepted. One way around it is betting props. For example QB passing yards (over) running back yards (under) etc etc. I'm sure there are other methods, just need to search for them. Myself included.

Post: #104

I bet Lions +6 on exchanges available at 10/11 with 2% commission. Also available at 2 books state side. Records count for nothing with such a small sample but I've beaten the line by several % on my selections.

I doubt I will beat the line on Lions today but I'm willing to take on Cam who's been under intense media feminazi spotlight this week, away from home, against for me, an underrated side with their run game ticking, a strong QB and an improving defence at slightly odds on.

Post: #105

I'm 8-8 on the season. Here are this week's picks:

-49ers' +1
-Lions -2
-Rams -2
-Packers +2.5
-Texans +2
-Bears +3
-Jaguars +7
-Dolphins -1
-Cardinals +6

Post: #106

Lions are done. what a pathetic showing at home.

Post: #107

Last weekend I put down $79.19 to win $1,791.96 on a 5 team parlay:

Pats -4.5
Georgia -16.5
Jets +1
Bengals -2.5
Chiefs pck

I'm good going into my last game tonight. The moneyline on the Texans is currently +105. I was going to hedge my bet with $300 on the Texans.

Is there a mathematically optimal amount to hedge with?

Post: #108

Eddie did you hedge? Looks like Chiefs will pull it out.

Post: #109

(10-07-2017 07:53 PM)Rushjones Wrote:  First off hats off to ProGambler, he's the shit.
The thing that people get wrong on Parlays is when you bet more than 5% of you're bankroll.
REMEMBER: It's a lottery ticket don't bet 40 with a bankroll of 200.
I used some picks last week from Disco_Volante & some of my picks as well(still lost).
For those bashing Parlays I suggest reading Antifragile by Taleb.
Remember kids there's no such thing as a "safe bet".
Keep doing you're things guys!
The last two weeks I've been with the Jets, time to go the other way. Browns+1.5

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comm...rlays_bad/

And yes, I am very familiar with Taleb's writing. He would agree that parlays are dumb.

Post: #110

(10-08-2017 08:46 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  Eddie did you hedge? Looks like Chiefs will pull it out.

Yea I hedged 300. Still got a nice $1,500 W.

I already made my picks for the week.

Jets Pats Under 47

I told myself I'd be taking the under if it was above 40 - was pretty shocked to see it open at 47. This Jets D is really not that bad, and the Pats are the just not the same team we are accustomed to. The Jets offense is a fucking joke, I can't see them scoring much against the smartest coach of all time. This is a huge game for the division against their biggest rivals, at home, so I'm not expecting a blowout. For me, the under is a clear play.

Also took Eagles Panthers Over 46. Also put 50 on the Jets SU at +385.

And one more parlay because I felt like it (93.15 to win 3817.97):

Panthers -3
Pats Jets under 47
Jags -2.5
Illnois -3
Michigan -5.5
Mich State -3

Post: #111

(10-09-2017 08:50 AM)Eddie Winslow Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 08:46 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:  Eddie did you hedge? Looks like Chiefs will pull it out.

Yea I hedged 300. Still got a nice $1,500 W.

I already made my picks for the week.

Jets Pats Under 47

I told myself I'd be taking the under if it was above 40 - was pretty shocked to see it open at 47. This Jets D is really not that bad, and the Pats are the just not the same team we are accustomed to. The Jets offense is a fucking joke, I can't see them scoring much against the smartest coach of all time. This is a huge game for the division against their biggest rivals, at home, so I'm not expecting a blowout. For me, the under is a clear play.

Also took Eagles Panthers Over 46. Also put 50 on the Jets SU at +385.

And one more parlay because I felt like it (93.15 to win 3817.97):

Panthers -3
Pats Jets under 47
Jags -2.5
Illnois -3
Michigan -5.5
Mich State -3

I just took the under at 47.5 for the Pats Jets game, lets see how we do!

Post: #112

(10-08-2017 04:34 PM)Eddie Winslow Wrote:  5 team parlay:

Pats -4.5
Georgia -16.5
Jets +1
Bengals -2.5
Chiefs pck

[After winning the first four games] I was going to hedge [the last game].

Is there a mathematically optimal amount to hedge with?

If you can't handle that much risk, then just bet a four team parlay. A hedged five-team parlay involves betting both sides of the last game, and pays less than a four team parlay.

Post: #113

Cutler is worse than AIDS but +14 drawing me in. Rams +2.5 was nice too. Other stuff like Giants +13 seems good too but going to leave it. Would've bet Steelers if getting +4.5 and Vikings getting +3.5 but no luck, no way Ben is finished.

Post: #114

I took the under 46.5 for the Michigan-Indiana game yesterday for basically the same reason I took the Jets-Pats under today. Unfortunately I lost by .5 pts in overtime, but I think it was a great bet and will continue to look for these types of opportunities in the future in both football and basketball.

Anyone who plays sports knows that defense is all about effort, discipline, and toughness. The players are 100% in control of these three things every moment of a football or basketball game. Unlike soccer, hockey, or baseball, where one or two small defensive lapses can dramatically change the outcome of the game, defense in these two sports get many opportunities to really set the tone for how a game will play out.

Even when a skilled football or basketball offense is clicking on all cylinders, things can go wrong that dramatically change their productivity, such as fumbles/dropped passes/freak interceptions or a night when even Steph Curry just CANNOT get the ball to drop. Effort, discipline, and toughness aka "showing up" is much easier to predict and it really does vary from night to night - especially in the college game where emotions, revenge, home field advantage, distractions, etc really mean something.

Reasons I expected the defenses to show up in Michigan Indiana:

-Michigan coming off a crushing upset to a huge rival and absolutely needing to get back on track
-Michigan one of the top defenses in the country
-Indiana on a three game win streak and looking for a signature win.
-The underdog is at home
-Michigan had not let up more than 17 pts all season

How many scenarios are there where Indiana scores more than 17 pts when the Michigan defense truly shows up? Very few. On the other side of the coin, how many scenarios does Indiana allow to blow them out at home in such a critical game? Also very few.

The game was 20-10 with ~6 mins left and Michigan had a new possession. That's about as great of a situation as I could have asked for. 9 times out of 10 I should be good here, but it just wasn't in the cards.

There are many scenarios in today's Jets game where the score will be low, and only one I can think of where it will be high (the Pats lay-on a demoralizing, soul-crushing blowout and asshole Belicheck runs up the score to 45-7 as he does when he smells blood).

Bottom line is I think the Jets D will show up, and the Pats D will do enough to hold the Jets to 17 pts or less. I'm going to focus only on unders from now on.

Post: #115

Wow Progambler. That would've been a perfect night if you bet on ALL those games.

Post: #116

I took Giants +14 at 10/11 and ML at 7/1 and regret not taking Steelers at +4. Vikings obv got lucky with Rodgers out and yeah probably should've taken Rams. Ah well.

Falcons +4 looks sharp for this week.

Post: #117

Scratch that, it's already been taken to +3.5 overnight. Hopefully +4 comes back but more likely we see +3 solid line by Sunday I think. I'll be looking to get on James White for TDs if odds are good too.

Post: #118

I'm done with NFL and sticking to college ball. NFL you never know what those teams are going to do it's like Russian roulette.

Buccaneers, falcons, and broncos were shockingly bad yesterday. And the patriots basically lost to the freaking jets except for ref interference that bailed them out.

Hats off to anyone who has balls to throw down on NFL anymore.

Post: #119

Buccaneers are a calamity team and have been for years. Siemian/Ossweiller is the worst 1/2 in the league also. Patriots worst roster for years.

Post: #120

What kind of crack are you on Disco. They were up 10 points when jets TE fumbled out the end zone. If the jets got within three points the Patriots wouldn't have played so conservatively for the next drive. They would've passed more and clinched the game with Tom Brady's arm.

Jets were up 14 points in the first half. They lost because of themselves.

Patriots don't have the worst team they've had in the past couple years. They may have one of the leagues worst defense statistically this year but they still made big upgrades on the roster compared to last year. It's only a matter of time until they gel.

Post: #121

(10-16-2017 06:36 AM)ProGambler Wrote:  Scratch that, it's already been taken to +3.5 overnight. Hopefully +4 comes back but more likely we see +3 solid line by Sunday I think. I'll be looking to get on James White for TDs if odds are good too.

Let us know your pics as they come in this week!

Post: #122

I went 3-1 this past weekend. Did very little research, just went heavy on underdogs. In fact, only my underdog picks won--Chiefs lost. I had the Dolphins, Vikings, and Jets covering which they all did. Picking a few games I am confident with is much better than picking a ton of ones that I am not comfortable with.

Overall though I don't see as football gambling as a viable money making option for myself long-term. I'd need a much bigger bankroll and am not willing to go all in at this point. Moreover, I am a very even 14-14-1 this season haha and don't have any edge whatsover. I will probably finish out this NFL season, or my current bankroll, whichever runs out first. If I have a good rest of the season it may be something I consider, but it is looking doubtful now.

Post: #123

My father and I are doing some casual NCAAF Betting. We had 1-1 over two weeks on a 4 bet parlay. I got lucky last week, i think. I am still a novice, so i only bet a little at a time.
I have 2 picks for now.
Wisconsin -24
Navy +7

Post: #124

Everyone:

Should we generalize this thread to all sports betting? Or do you think its worth starting of another thread for basketball/other sports?

I think we should change the title here from "Football" to "Sports."

Post: #125

I agree, let's do all sports picks as well.