Post: #1

With the present gloomy economic state of numerous EU countries, I am much more thoughtful about how to make the use of the financial crap these countries have fallen into.
Greece ... Italy... Portugal and Spain on the way? - Definitely looks like that.


Met some 3 officials from Indian Prime Ministers' G20 visit recently. (They happen to be my dad's friends) All of them noted that there is a huge inflow of Gulf construction companies for a massive hunt on Real Estate sector in Greece and Italy particularly.
(They mentioned, Greece, Italy and Latvia/Lithuania to be tomorrow's goldmine)

Today Greece might be in some deep shit, but with a new PM in the office and global support, it would hardly take 5-7 years to be back on the track. Meanwhile, your own ROI on investments would be skyrocketing!

Needless to say, I am seriously considering to invest something in these countries, most possibly in the Real estate and/or shares in major national companies.

What do you think about the investment scene in the countries under deep shit?
Where do you think lies various sectors for investment?

Post: #2

Greece is far from safe still


I don't know why people would be investing in Greece now, when if it collapses their economy (and currency) will be almost worthless

Post: #3

This situation in Greece reminds me a lot of the Argentina economic crisis in 2002. I was there as a tourist when banks hit a flat-line and chaos was on the streets. Not a pretty sight, and women did not want to fuck due to emotional depression.

I'd avoid Greece as it seems it is headed in the same direction as Argentina in 2002.

Mixx

Post: #4

Ami5 keep in mind that there are people out there who are likely to have much better specific information about this than you do. Getting in on a vague notion that there's money to be made because of the depressed economy is a surefire way to lose your shirt.

Property is probably a better bet than stocks, but even so you need to do a lot of homework to make it work out.

If you're serious about this go there and spend some time on the ground.

Otherwise check out the King of Rocinha thread for another interesting investment opportunity.

Post: #5

I completely see big investors from the Gulf buying real estate in Spain, Portugal, Greece because prices have indeed gone a lot cheaper. The assessment is correct IMO and so are their opportunities. Spain's former boom, specifically, was mainly based on a building and real estate frenzy and now there's plenty of idle capacity an supply.

But we're talking here bout big, wealthy investors, who can wait for results, invest huge sums and focus on prime, rather unique properties, perhaps even entire tourist resorts, which now can go for half price. For the filet mignon, yes, no doubt there is a great opportunity here.

For the simple mortal, however, who is not super rich, it gets trickier IMO. Let's say, for instance, you have 600K euro to invest and now you found a very nice apartment in Madrid for 300K (it used to be 500K and you negotiated very well). You put half your money on a bet that someday (hopefully soon) the market will catch up and you'll sell it for profit. It might be a good bet, you just can't know for sure, but I personally wouldn't do it unless I'll use it for my own vacations or as part of my personal plans for life. In any case, it might take a long time and mounting maintenance costs before you can cash in.

If I could, like the investors from the Gulf, get for instance a rather unique beach resort for a mega discount, wow, that would be something different. The Germans will keep on living nearby, the wealthy russian tourists, the sunny coast will still be there etc etc. That would be, for instance, different from just buying a holiday beach house which the ordinary locals can't afford anymore and which in terms of sale to foreigners will have to compete with the other one hundred thousand vacation houses which are already for sale.

It's just an opinion though, my honest impression here.

As for stocks, I don't know much about it, except that, in times of crisis, investments in food tend to do well. Empoverished people spend a lot on food and the prime luxury they can afford themselves is also often food/booze.

I'm always fascinated by the antique-arts market as well, there may be opportunities here too if you know your way here.

If you really want to go for it (and you're not a mega investor with a rather easy path to follow) do as Caligula says: spend some time there and try to find something quite unique for a bargain.

Post: #6

(11-14-2011 02:21 PM)Locksmith Wrote:  I'm always fascinated by the antique-arts market as well, there may be opportunities here too if you know your way here.

Great point. When I was in Argentina a couple of years so after the crash there were amazing bargains to be had in antique shops. People were selling off heirlooms to generate cash.

Not knowing much about antiques I couldn't sniff out the best bargains, and the logistics seemed like a pain in the ass, but if you knew what you were doing you could have found some great deals.

Considering the wealth of antiquity in Greece there might be good deals to be found if you know your stuff.

Post: #7

(11-14-2011 03:05 PM)Caligula Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 02:21 PM)Locksmith Wrote:  I'm always fascinated by the antique-arts market as well, there may be opportunities here too if you know your way here.

Great point. When I was in Argentina a couple of years so after the crash there were amazing bargains to be had in antique shops. People were selling off heirlooms to generate cash.

Not knowing much about antiques I couldn't sniff out the best bargains, and the logistics seemed like a pain in the ass, but if you knew what you were doing you could have found some great deals.

Considering the wealth of antiquity in Greece there might be good deals to be found if you know your stuff.

Keep in mind that Greece does NOT like antiques leaving the country. The wrong item in your possesion at the airport can put you right in jail.

The judge will not like this either so be very very careful.

Post: #8

(11-14-2011 03:15 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 03:05 PM)Caligula Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 02:21 PM)Locksmith Wrote:  I'm always fascinated by the antique-arts market as well, there may be opportunities here too if you know your way here.

Great point. When I was in Argentina a couple of years so after the crash there were amazing bargains to be had in antique shops. People were selling off heirlooms to generate cash.

Not knowing much about antiques I couldn't sniff out the best bargains, and the logistics seemed like a pain in the ass, but if you knew what you were doing you could have found some great deals.

Considering the wealth of antiquity in Greece there might be good deals to be found if you know your stuff.

Keep in mind that Greece does NOT like antiques leaving the country. The wrong item in your possesion at the airport can put you right in jail.

The judge will not like this either so be very very careful.

Yeah there are a ton of rules about this in Greece (same in Italy) - study them carefully before making any investment.

Post: #9

(11-14-2011 03:18 PM)Caligula Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 03:15 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 03:05 PM)Caligula Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 02:21 PM)Locksmith Wrote:  I'm always fascinated by the antique-arts market as well, there may be opportunities here too if you know your way here.

Great point. When I was in Argentina a couple of years so after the crash there were amazing bargains to be had in antique shops. People were selling off heirlooms to generate cash.

Not knowing much about antiques I couldn't sniff out the best bargains, and the logistics seemed like a pain in the ass, but if you knew what you were doing you could have found some great deals.

Considering the wealth of antiquity in Greece there might be good deals to be found if you know your stuff.

Keep in mind that Greece does NOT like antiques leaving the country. The wrong item in your possesion at the airport can put you right in jail.

The judge will not like this either so be very very careful.

Yeah there are a ton of rules about this in Greece (same in Italy) - study them carefully before making any investment.

Forget the laws. If they think you are there for a going out of business sale they WILL be hard on you. Even if everthing is legit. They do what they want when they want. Remember that and especially if you are American.

Post: #10

Guys, you're absolutely right if you're talking about buying stuff illegally and smuggling it out of the country (although some people know their ways around this too...).

But, for instance in auctions, you can buy artworks and antique stuff in a completely legal way. Moreover, the transaction is legally biding. If there's something fishy about an article you bought from an established/renowned auctioneer you can proof you bought it in good faith and reclaim your money (a bloody hassle, for sure) from the sellers. These businesses must provide you with some sort of certification of the item in an otherwise transparent public transaction. Plus you do your research beforehand, to check if the artwork is prohibitted from leaving the country. True, you can get a hard time from authorities and bureaucrats when doing business, but IMO this is not specific to this sort of purchase or because you happen to be American. Red tape just sucks.

A few months ago I saw some nice bargains in Lisbon but I just didn't have the time to go. I could buy stuff legally and declare it to customs on my way out without basic fears of getting arrested. If anything, you'll have to declare your purchases to the taxman, in which case this is a cost related to your investment.

My greatest fear here are the counterfeit works of art/ antiques. Even with certification and the stamp of specialists this is a risk which is only minimized IMO if you have the back up of reliable local people who really know their stuff. In case you find a good back-up person, it may be well worth to reward him/her for the service.

Not long ago I was offered a "true" Salvador Dali aquarelle painting for 300 USD. Some art gallery in London issued a document saying they thought it was real. Well, the "Dali" wasn't sold during the auction as you could expect. There is also the case of a famous contemporary painter from the XXth century: you can have something painted, bring it to his widow, give her some money, and, yes, she will certify her late husband produced the artwork.....just examples.....